European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - June 14, 1980, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 12 the stars and stripes saturday. June 14. 1980 James Ristom persistent Ted May Hurt his party All. Mathematicians and most politicians have counted senator Kennedy out. So Uhal keeps him in the presidential race what makes Tedd run you have to live in this goofy town of Washington in order to understand thai this is essentially a psychological question. Nobody believes in logic around Here. And almost everybody believes in the Acci dents of politics. From Warren Harding to Jimmy Carter All sorts of unlikely charac ters have stumbled into the White House so Kennedy soldiers on. He has some arguments Tor doing so. None of them very persuasive. The press is unanimous in proclaiming now that he can not possibly win the democratic Nomi nation just As they were almost unanimous last year in thinking that he could t Possi Bly lose. You can t blame him therefore for thinking they might just be wrong again but it s probably a bum guess. Also. Kennedy has some promises to keep. A lot of influential democrats urged him to run on the ground that he had an obligation to defend the Liberal policies of the democratic party which they insisted. Carter had abandoned. Therefore it is argued that since so Many people stuck with him through the primary elections he should Slick with them through the mad Ison Square Garden convention in August. There is something to this argument but not much. For finally it is contended that by stay ing in the race he will be Able to persuade Carter to accept a More Liberal party plat form. But this assumes that Jimmy Carter lakes the Liberal platform rhetoric seriously. Which judging by the last Liberal demo cratic platform Carter embraced in 1 976. Is a dubious proposition. Why then does he be keep going the guess Here is that he docs so for several reasons. He believes Carter s economic policies have been a disaster and that Carter s foreign policies have confused the allies the communists and the contending forces in the Middle East. There is no evidence that he has any answer to these tangles at Home or abroad but he is confident that better than Carter he con recruit a team that can find the answers. That is his fantasy. But while he May hear Hail to the chief in the night he is a practical politician and knows the num Bers Are against him and that Carter will be nominated in August. Yet he is trying or so it seems Here to prove something about himself and to the nation. His personal character has been at tacked. He has been condemned As a Man who panics and even runs away under pressure. He started his Campaign very badly and was mocked for his Early failures. But he rallied to the attack finished the primaries very Well by defeating the presi Dent in California and new Jersey and has therefore been encouraged to carry his fight against Carter and Carter s policies into the democratic nominating convention in mad Ison Square Garden. He har. A fundamental difference with Carter about the Economy about the Bud get and particularly about the welfare and the health of the poor people of this coun try. He has no coherent policy to reconcile his yearnings with his policies but he s sure he s right and that Carter is wrong and he clearly resents Carter s efforts to destroy him by oblique references to Kennedy s tragedy at Chappaquiddick. But even so this is no excuse for carrying on his Campaign against Carter. He cannot possibly win the nomination without destroying the president dividing his party and in the process electing Reagan which he clearly docs not want to do but May do by Accident. It s a Long Lime before the democratic nominating convention next August. A Campaign by Kennedy attacking Carter s record is precisely what the republicans want in the next few months along with the help of John Anderson who will take More votes away from Carter than from Reagan. And if by Chance Kennedy managed to destroy Carter it is highly unlikely that the democrats would turn to him but More than Likely to vice president Mondale with Secretary of state Muskie As his running mate. Finally if Kennedy goes on and loses to Carter but divides the democratic party he will not Only fail in this election but create such hostility among the democrats that he will ruin his chances for his party s presidential nomination in 1984. In the end. Kennedy is not Likely to carry his Battle that far. He is a parly Man bred in the democratic tradition of Massachusetts loyally. He May defy Carter for a while but he is not Likely to defy tip o Neill the speaker of the House who is urging party Unity to defeat Reagan in no vember. Kennedy is still a comparatively Young Man in his late forties. He has won the Confidence of the Senate if not of the coun try. He is chairman of the influential sen ate judiciary committee and has a Long political career ahead of him regardless of what happens in this election. After a stumbling run at the presidency Early on. He has waged a Gallant Campaign under severe pressure for himself and nil family but he had a fair shot at the Nomi nation and he has lost. Carrying on from Here May make news but won t make sense. For it will hurl his party help Reagan and reduce whatever chances he has to seek the presidency next time. Re n y. Timet tm6 Torch John Roche dangerous Sarajevo scenario is possible in Iran Many years ago i wrote that we should not be so hypnotized by the lesson of Munich you can t buy peace by appeasement that we forget the lesson of Sarajevo the bosnian City where the june 1914 murder of the austrian Archduke Acci dentally launched world War i. Right now in Iran we confront a very dangerous Sarajevo scenario. The background is the disintegration of the iranian state As glued together by the Shah and his father. Before the Pahlavi took Over Persia was More a stale of mind than a nation. But Racza Shah the old Man who was an ethnic Cossack and his son went to work with the Aid of the British and americans to solder the various ethnic bar onies to the Farsi heartland. This was no easy task Given the raw material which ranged from sunni arabs to turkish Azor Pajanis to descendants of go Anghis Khan and Tamerlane s mongol tribes. With the exit of the Shah and the installation of a reactionary ninth Century theocracy Iran came apart at the scams. There arc multiple lines of fission. First the one Between the Shin and Sun the opinion Oil rued in the column and car Loon on Mil Page  whom of lha author and Aro in no War Loba conic Mfd at  lha Viwat of the Shari and stripes or the United stale government. In muslims. The persians to use their old designation arc shias. The turkomans of the Caspian province the Baluch in the Southeast and the arabs of the Oil producing District arc sunni. To make life even More interesting the Azor Pajanis arc non persian shiites and there is a shia minority among the Baluch. Second there is a division Between the islamic theoc rals and the revolutionary secularists led by president Bani Sadr and columns comments foreign minister Ghib Zach. They arc Good muslims but oppose returning Iran to the ninth Century. So far every rational initiative made by Bani Sadr has been vetoed by the Imam Ayatollah Khomeini lie at tempted to work out a Deal with the kurd for example that would have responded to kurdish demands for a measure of decentralization. Khomeini then called for the extermination of the kurdish rebels and his islamic private army arrested a delegation of kurd ish mayors and other officials who had come to Tehran for talks about accommodation. The kurd who arc doubtless now getting extensive military equipment from Iraq and possibly the soviet Union have gone to War with a vengeance. Mention of the soviet Union should recall the fact that there Are pro Moscow secularists in the play. If it were not so potentially tragic Here would be some laughs. For example the economist reports the sunni moslem tur Komans of the Caspian provinces of Gilan and Maz Andran about which Little is heard since they passed out of iranian control several months ago celebrated the first anniversary of the iranian Republic with processions featuring pictures of the Ayatollah Josef Stalin. This sounds like material for an Evelyn Waugh novel but we have yet to look at the International dimension of Iran s chaos. Ever since Iraq and Iran emerged from British Hegemony they have been at daggers drawn and to make an involved Story Brief Iraq seems to have decided the time is Ripe to dispose of persian claims of cultural superiority Over the arabs to slake out a claim to Over lordship of the Gulf and May be steal Iran s Oil province known in Iraq As  Iraq has been armed to the Teeth by the soviet Union and it begins to look As though a first class shootout is in process along the Iraq Iran Border. My friends in the military hardware business Tell me that after a year s neglect Iran has concocted a distinctive form of arms control billions of dollars Worth of equipment has just rotted away in the desert. Thus Iran is on the Short end of a military face off with Iraq. Which leads me in my devious fashion Back to Sarajevo. Listening to the bbl s Teheran correspondent the other night i almost fell out of my chair. While president Bani Sadr was quoted As saying the Irani ans would clobber Iraq. Foreign minister Ghib Zach was virtually declaring War on the soviet Union the lactic of uniting a nation by focusing hatred on a foreign enemy it not unknown. But does Ghotb Zadeh have the remotest no Tion of the rough game the russians play he proposed an iranian pakistani afghan rebel Headquarters in Eastern Iran from which equipment could be shipped o afghan Freedom fighters. In essence an afghan government in exile supported by Iran and the Paks. In theory a Fine idea but does anyone think Moscow will sit still and did t Jimmy Promise to defend Iran a ticket to Sarajevo anyone let King feature Syndicate