European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 17, 1980, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 12 the stars and stripes wednesday september 17, 1980 James Reston Carter s feeling a Riffle bit better these Days president Carter is said to be feeling fairly Chipper in recent Days. The news about the hostages in Iran is a Little by lick. The israeli government has been talking a i talc softer and the administration has finally found one economist in its ranks who is willing to say publicly that the recession has come to an end. It should be explained hat anything that lakes the headline news away from bad eco nomic statistics or from John Anderson and the presidential debates is Welcome around the White House. The president has been relieved to talk instead about the coup d c Lal in Turkey announce personally a $670 million Grant to Poland for Grain and to be seen on television pinning medals on a for gotten italian hero of inc last world War. The Carter people Are also pleased by the president s revival in the National popularity polls which show him running about even with gov. Reagan but they arc still worried about Anderson and their own analysis of the electoral Voles and by their fear tha they May even gel More popular votes nationwide than Reagan but still fall behind in the Cocci Oral Voles of the most populous Stales and thus lose the election. For example their studies of the 1968 presidential election show that 202 of Rich Ard Nixon s 301 electoral votes came that year from states in which the George Wal lace vote was More than twice As Large As James Kilpatrick the Nixon plurality Over Hubert you applied this lesson to Anderson in 1980, and if you assumed that at least three out of four Anderson votes would have been Carter votes in a two Man race anything Over 10 percent for Anderson this novem Ber could clearly throw the election to Rea Gan. This is the Carter Nightmare. It was mainly on this calculation thai Carter rightly or wrongly fell he had More to lose by facing Anderson before a massive television audience in the first debate than by refusing to give Anderson that Access to the cameras. It is also Wilh the Large electoral Stales in mind thai the president has been paying so much attention recently to the cd hmm constituencies to inc Blacks jews poles italians in inc Large cities and to the hispanics in Tex As and in the West and Southwest. He is working hard to persuade israeli officials and jewish leaders in this country that he has provided More Aid to Israel than any other president since the founding of that country and that he will be a More reliable ally in inc future than Reagan. He is having trouble Wilh this Lallcer argument for Many influential israelis and american jews fear that he will lean harder on Israel in a second term when he won t need their Voles. this is Carter s game plan for the last weeks of the Campaign hold the South and concentrate on the big electoral Stales keep Anderson out of the first debate keep the debates out of the economic recession if possible or if impossible argue that the recession is coming to an end. And in addition to All this to Pray for a break Over seas. He has made some Progress on this last objective. The new chinese leaders in peking have indicated their support of his re elec Tion. The european allies and Japan have More doubts about Reagan than they have about Carter which is no great compliment to inc president but they Are being discreet and will probably do nothing to Embarrass him Between now and the voting. Even inc soviets have been moderating their vilification of Carter in the last few Days. A Resolution of the hostage crisis in Iran Between now and the election would obviously be of immense help to the president s Campaign. He gambled on this Prospect by hav ing Secretary of stale music write a conciliatory letter to the new iranian prime minister Mohammed a i Rajai and now has a More hopeful response from the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. That imply is More interesting for what it does nol say than for what it does. There Are no demands for repent Cnoc by inc United states no suggestion of . Reparations no threats of putting the hos tages on trial. The Ayatollah said Iii he hostages would be freed if the United states turned Over the property of the late Shah of cancelled its claims against Iran unblocked the iranian assets Frozen Here by Carter an promised not to intervene politically or militarily in that country. All these demands Are regarded Here with extreme caution but All Are accepted Asne Goti Able. It would be extremely difficult however to arrange a settlement of so Many intricate questions before the election. There Are hundreds of Legal suits against iranian assets that cannot be resolved by Carter without the decisions of the courts but if it is True thai the Ayatollah s message is intended As a kind of amnesty for the hostages Ai one iranian spokesman has said it is barely possible but highly unlikely that a settlement can be reached in the next six weeks. Meanwhile the administration is More worried about Anderson than it is hopeful about the Ayatollah. And it is not taking too seriously the announcement of Courtenay m. Slater chief economist of the Commerce department that the economic recession had apparently ended in july and that the Economy would show growth in the third Quarter. Too Many other economists arc less optimistic and Reagan and Anderson will be emphasizing Carter s economic record Whei they talk to his empty chair in the first of the Campaign debates later this month. Cd new York to twi can Carfer hold South with Vone of us Appeal Atlanta the South is or. Car Ter s Only political base. If it crumbles Down he goes. Here in Georgia one hears a vast Deal of grumbling about inc president but few observers doubt that he will win his Home stale again in november though not by another 67 percent landslide. It seems to be generally conceded that the democratic ticket also will win handily in Arkansas and Alabama. But it is a measure of the presi Dent s political problems that after those three states have been entered in his column question Marks begin to crowd inc Page. Four years ago or. Carter carried 10 slates in the late confederacy Alabama Arkansas Florida Georgia Louisiana Mississippi North and South Carolina. Tennessee and Texas. Together they gave him 118 of the 270 electoral votes he needed for Victory. He won the 10 states largely upon his Appeal to Southern Pride. He appealed to a Century old mystique to a regional inheritance of ostracism and Humilia Tion to the desire of Many southerners five generations after Appomattox to Demon Strate that one of us could make it to the while House. Last week he sounded those identical Bugle Calls anew. Certainly his appeals worked in 1976, the cow 1du a Koire know owe two we see Oil 10 Stales went through one of the most astonishing flip flops in our political history. Take a moment if you will and look Back. For More than 60 years through the presidential election of 1944, the solid South had remained precisely that a solid unshakeable bastion of the democratic party. Tennes see defected to Harding in 1920, and four of he 10 went for Hoover in 1928. Otherwise no blemish marred a record of fealty thai began Wilh s end in 1880. Throughout the Region scarcely a respect Able Republican could be found. Victory in democratic primary always was Tanta mount to to Vole against the Par by s presidential nominee was heresy. But in 1948, inc perfect pattern began to dissolve. Alabama Mississippi Louisiana and South Carolina jumped off to states Righter Szrom Thurmond Florida and ten Nessee barely Kepi the Faith. In 1952, Flor Ida Tennessee and Texas went for Eisen Hower. In 1956 Louisiana joined them for Ike s second 1960, John f. Kennedy carried All of the 10 but Florida Mississippi and Tennes see but he carried five of them by margins of less than i percent. In 1964 the dam broke Alabama Georgia Mississippi Loui Siana and South Carolina went for Barry Goldwater. In 1968 Only one of the Dixie 10 Texas by a Mere 40,000 votes could beheld for the democratic nominee. In 1972, of course the year of the Mcgovern debacle All 10 went Republican. In that year missis Sippi was the most Republican stale in the nation. Then came inc flip Flop. The 10 states had averaged nearly 71 percent Republican in 1972. In 1976 that average plummeted to 43 percent. The gop lost nearly 400,000 votes in Georgia 388,000 in Florida 347, 000 in Texas. It was not a switch in the Black Vole that produced this phenomenon the Black vote for Carter in 1976 was not significantly greater than the Black vote for Mcgovern in 1972. It was the Southern White Vole that after 28 years of wandering returned to the democratic fold. Looking at the trend that or. Carter so rudely interrupted Republican strategist Sec prizes to be captured Texas Wilh 26 electoral Voles Louisiana Wilh 10, Mississippi with seven. Four others arc up for grabs Florida 17north Carolina 13south Carolina 8 and Tennessee 10. The prospects in Florida and Tennessee seem especially attractive but both Carolinas now have a Republican . Senator and both recently have had Republican . Carter As 1 say has his problems. How important is this business of South can Pride the second time around my guess you re right. It Posen t smell like watergate but it s Mot suppose to so bal .1 is that its significance is much diminished. We have witnessed such a Rise and fall be fore once catholics had proved with John Kennedy that one of us could make it Catholic Solidarity broke apart. Or. Carter s difficult task is to keep the same thing from happening to him. Let in Tver path
