European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - July 6, 1985, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes july 1985 columns committe James Kilpatrick most americans Are car carrying the Public is a lot More Liberal Tolian it said Barney maybe yes but then More probably what the Public is the pub Lic cant be poured into any convenient Frank is president of americans for democratic in the Days of Hubert Ada was a formidable Power in National More recently it has fallen upon hard paid membership is Down to a measly and the quiche caters who used to finance its operations Are parking their Volvo somewhere but Frank is a True and feels that a brisk drive for new members will prove the political pendulum is swinging away from conservatives and Back toward the Liber the empirical such As it Doest suggest a changing of political Public opinion Magazine recently rounded up the off and on for nearly 50 years the Gallup organization has been asking people How they classify Back in respondents were divided this Way 37 percent 36 percent dont 25 the other 2 percent described David Broder themselves As left of Twenty years the picture was no sharper 28 27 17 dont the most recent Gallup taken last provides Little support for Franks Only 16 percent of the respondents identified themselves As left of twice that number said they were right of forty one percent were in the and 11 percent didst know where they the trouble with All this is that Many voters Are one thing in principle and an other thing in in Theo Are among the most conservative of but when it comes to Federal subsidies they Are right at the head of the business executives also cherish a conservative but have you heard from the Auto executives lately from the steel people the shoe people there Good and they love Competition and Revere the marketplace but Only to a Frank is a member of the House from As a politician he May find Comfort in figures that Are More encouraging than Gallups when ten Nessee sends Albert Gore to the Senate in place of Howard and Illinois elects Paul Simon to the seat Charles Percy and Iowa names Tom Harkin in Stead of Roger something is going on out and and yet the republicans ticket of Reagan and Bush overwhelmed the democrats ticket of Mondale and that was As Clear a Choice of political philosophies As one could one has to infer that the by a margin of nearly want the conservative program on which Reagan campaigned they want stronger including the my missile they want an aggressive foreign policy in Central including Aid to the contras of Nicaragua they want entitlement pro Grams Cut they do says who the president has had to fight for every dime of defense Money As for a Central american Congress has turned his five alarm Chili into tapioca and when the administration proposed to restrict guaranteed student All those Middle class folks 40 whom swear there conserva Tives set off a howl you could hear for my own for whatever h May be is that the american peo ple belong to the great ambivalent in Public affairs they tend generally to take a conservative View they Are wary of change they Are suspicious or resentful of big but in matters that touch them personally the Farmers Price the oldsters the local symphony subsidy they Are not so rights Center after november of next year May give us a better Reading on Franks Twenty two Senate seats now held by re publicans and 12 now held by democrats will be up for in most of the anticipated voters will have a reason ably Clear Choice of if Frank is right in thinking that conservatism peaked in the democrats will re gain firm control of both and the moribund Ada will be Back in the Lime Light c Universal press the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing those of the stars and stripes or the United states analysis sees gop As a wave against a seawall until something better comes i am prepared to nominate the new direction of american a volume soon to be published by the Brook Ings institution in As the most convincing interpretation yet presented of the Ronald Reagan Era in american the 400page study by 15 edited by John Chubb and Paul makes a persuasive Case that what we arc witnessing is historic one of those big swings or realignments that serve As landmarks in the nations Chubb and Peterson and the authors of the political parties Thomas Cavanagh and James Are careful to say that they Are not predict ing Lon term Republican dominance of the National they do say the republicans have advantages that reach Well beyond the personal Appeal of Reagan the this Catbe happcmir46 to us tilt of the electoral College to the West and the the superiority of their National fundraising and Politi Cal the growing tendency of swing voters especially younger ones to think of themselves As but they readily concede that in certain circumstances and with the right democrats May be Able to win National the real value of their Book is to lift the argument about the significance of the Reagan revolution out of the swamp of speculation about the 1986 and 1988 elections and Deal with the phenomenon that has Al ready they Are particularly helpful in Clearing up the puzzlement Many of us who cover politics have Felt about the seeming immutability of the democratic majorities in the House of representatives and state and local their sensible suggestion is to think of an Ocean wave breaking on a the wave is the tide of voter sentiment that throws one party put of office and in stalls the the Leader of the incoming party Rea in this Case has the responsibility to devise policies that meet the Public if he does As Reagan did in his first term the first wave May be followed by another even More the 1984 election was that second but even after that second the democrats Are More strongly entrenched in the House and in state and local government than they were when Reagan was first How can this be a political realignment their answer is to think of the seawall As the institutional framework against which the big Waves Are the stronger the the longer it will take for the Waves to break they make two Points that really help clarify the picture and resolve the seeming the first is the older the the stronger its institutional in our Early the shift of Power from Washington and Adams federalists to Jeffersons demo Crati republicans was so traumatic that the air was filled with charges of and institutions almost a bit the Rise of the republicans helped bring on the civil and the Union the second Point is institutions Are far More deeply entrenched and resistant to the presidency and to a lesser extent the Senate be comes the immediate focus of because they Are seen As the most powerful parts of the contests for their control Are so competitive that shifts in popular sentiment Register quickly and by members of the House have built up individual defences against National political using their influence Over distracting office service functions and Access to communications and Campaign finances to insulate state and local officials have gone even further by in most that their elections not Coin cide with the Choice of the there Are two implications in this analysis both encouraging to one is that if you accept the wave and seawall then you have to think that As Long As the republicans provide policy changes that meet the Public mood tax reduction and simplify for they will continue to make inroads against the institutionalized be ready for Republican gains in governorships in once the sea has broken do not expect to see the same Shoreline again As Chubb and Peterson the terms of political debate and the course of Public policy have been fundamentally transformed an economic downturn or a foreign policy reverse May rejuvenate the but the policies they once espoused will not be As big Strong defense commitments and doubts about the welfare state will shape the political and policy future whatever the Fate of parties or presidents in particular c 1985 Washington Post writers group