European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - July 12, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Agazine Hurricane survival More exposed than Ever by Bill Wood United press International he 1986 Hurricane season has begun and the director of the National Hurricane Center in Florida says americans Are no better prepared to avoid catastrophe than during last year s assault of wind and Waves that caused a record $4 billion in damage. Yet they continue to defy the storms. We be got a very serious problem but i submit to you it s a human problem Neil Frank said. In his amiable mile a minute tone the Crew Cut Frank talks about How vulnerable yet defiant people Are in the face of powerful natural forces. He Speaks of storms last year in Bangladesh that took the lives of 12.000 people and of 1970. When some 300,000 people died Tim annual flooding changes coast land creating new Fertile islands in the Bay. That s Rich land and the natives know that. So when a new Island forms somebody grabs their sack of Grain gets on a Little boat and Heads out there to Plant. Because you see if they Don t do that they re going to die anyway of starvation. So it s the poor the destitute who have no other Choice but to go out there if they re going to survive. I think it s rather interesting though that in the United state and particularly in Florida that it s the Rich and the affluent that have found these same Kin of vulnerable locations. We be gone out there and butt and Over those places. And i think there is a preconceived notion that no we re not in danger but i want you to know that nature is not at an partial to your economic status. And when it comes to a Hurricane moving along it would just As soon Wash Down a multimillion Dollar condominium As a Little grass roof hut Over there in  Frank declared. We a More exposed in this nation to the Hurricane problem than we be Ever been in our life. One of Frank s favorite themes is that humans have intruded on the natural coastal cycles. We can t be satisfied living by the water he said. We want to live right out there in the surf zone he denounces sea Walls built to protect buildings abutting the surf. He says they change nature s pattern of wind built Sand dunes pulled out to sea by Waves apmpoto19fl5 at Lea it 24 hours is needed Tor evacuations Here two Hurricane watchers in Panama City Beach Fla during storms thus maintaining the coastal beachfront without the dunes and Sand. Frank says Waves gain Energy and Are More threatening and there is a perhaps even greater Long term effect of erosion. Over the last 100 years we be had a Rise in sea level by about a foot says the Man affectionately dubbed or. Hurricane if that continues for another 100 years we re going to be in serious trouble in lot of places in Florida. When you have a Rise in sea level the islands try to Migrate Back toward the Mainland and they can Migrate As much As i mile to 1 mile for every 1-foot change in sea level. The Way this happens is storms take the soil off the front of the Island and Deposit it on the  Tho emigrating islands serve a crucial function when hurricanes threaten. Nature has a phenomenal Way of protecting itself and the islands Are there to protect the Mainland. Those Little islands take the Brunt of the storm they dissipate the wave action and then we Don t get devastated so badly Back Here on the Mainland Frank said. Another problem Frank said is that people incorrectly believe the National Hurricane Center has become better equipped to warn them of approaching disaster. Part of the dilemma today is the impression that we re forecasting a lot better than we really Are he said. We do a fantastic Job of observing. We have weather satellites and in motion photographs and we can give those to the Media and they can bring them right into the living rooms. We re not forecasting better because we Don t know what the Rivers of air in which hurricanes travel Are doing. The Rivers Are generated Over the vast regions of the Atlantic where you Don t have a whole lot of meteorological  Frank said that during his 25 years at the Hurricane Center meteorological skills of forecasting where a storm will be in 24 hours have improved Only slightly. At least 24 hours generally is needed for major evacuations. The key action that you be got to take in a Hurricane is evacuation. And when you do an evacuation plan you be got to take into account your neighbors because All of you run into each other on the Inland Road system Frank said. Comprehensive evacuation planning was t even known until the late 1970s. Now in Florida we have comprehensive evacuation plans in a number of communities that would cover three or four or five counties. All of those plans Call for rather excessive Lead times for an evacuation. The Florida keys is almost 30 hours. In Tampa Bay it s 20 hours. It s 20 to 25 hours in the Southeast Florida coast. If i can provide that kind of Lead time with some degree of accuracy then the plans work. But then we get an Elena that comes wandering across Here and i can t provide that kind of Lead time. Or we get a Juan that develops out off the coast and i can t give 24 hours of Lead time. Frank was referring to two 1985 hurricanes. Elena was the labor Day storm that veered Back and Forth from Florida s Panhandle to Mississippi and Back. Juan sprang to life suddenly off the coast. Such behaviour prevents Advance warning of More than a Tew hours. Frank is convinced it is time for alternative programs of Hurricane preparedness and is frustrated with the inaction. Now that we be got the plans and know the amount of Lead time we need let s take a look at what emergency action we can take when the plan fails he said. What Are you going to do when you trap 25,000 people on one of these Little islands off Tampa rather than Rush inhabitants off the islands Frank wants to move them up above the Island Safe from the crashing Waves. It s called vertical evacuation. Could we not develop condominiums Back on the Bay sides away from the High wave action and make them reasonably Safe in a Hurricane if we re going to continue developing the islands and not build the Roadway systems to get people Back to the Mainland then we be got to go that direction or pay the Price. And we re going to pay an awesome Price one of these Days Frank warns. Frank also la Cri ucal of television and radio meteorologists who attempt to be precise in their forecasting. He said that practice possibly inspired by Competition serves to mislead and confuse the pubic. His biggest fear he said is the Public win hear conflicting reports and fail to act in the event of real danger. He is not shy about admitting the limitations of his science. Saturday july 12, 1986 the stars and stripes Page 13