European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 12, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes sunday october 12,1988 columns David Broder voters swayed by personalities not politics Back in Washington after six weeks of almost unbroken travel on the Campaign Trail having visited nine Stales and looked at seven Senate and seven gubernatorial races the Only Safe conclusion i can offer is that the Federal system with its wondrous variety is alive and Well in 1986. To tip o Neill s reminder that All politics is local you can add that Mostof it is also highly Persona. In Oregon the last Stop on this swing the rivals in the gubernatorial face Are almost univer Sally known As Neil and Norma Gold Schmidl and Paulus respectively. Voters discuss their histories accomplishments and shortcomings As if they were rela Tives or co workers kit Bond and Harriet Woods enjoy the same kind of instant identification in Missouri and at least one Candi Date has gained similar first name familiarity in other states from Massachusetts to Washington. Even in slates where challengers have had to use and dollars to Leach the pronunciation of such unfamiliar names As Wyche Fowler jr., or Arliss slurp Ulewski first naming by the voters is far from rare. This phenomenon tells us something about what the 19s6 election is and snot. It is an Effort to find reliable leadership to place or keep in office officials the voters fed they can Trust. A is not a referendum on president Reagan on National issues or where the country is going nest. In close to 150 interviews in precinct from Atlanta to Johnstown i j., to Royal Oak mich., to Tacoma Wash. I Tan recall fewer than half a dozen voters who suggested that party control of the Senate was Jim Fain even a Remote Factor in their vote the re publicans have not succeeded in National izing the election As a win it for the Cip per insurance policy against lamp Duck Hood for Reagan s final two years. But neither have the democrats succeeded in making it a protest election in which voters use their ballots to Send them a message of anger or pain. There Are two themes that Cross slate lines and tug voters in opposite directions. One is the Broad approval of Rea Gan s conduct of foreign policy. In the areas i have covered the belief that he has enhanced the nation s military strength and has applied it in sixty to secure american interests is perhaps the single most powerful  in Republican Senate campaigns the support wan not visibly damaged by the Deal that freed Nicholas Daniloff by Congress override of the Reagan Volo on sanctions against South Africa or by the Flap Over the disinformation Campaign against Libya s Moa mar Qadhafi. The other theme is the sense of disquiet about the nation s economic future. The continued respite from inflation which Al lows working families to plan their own budgets with some Confidence keeps the concern from flaming into revolt against Reagan ondics. But there Are so Many soft spots in the business and Job picture that almost everyone knows from personal experience that in these prosperous times Many Are squeezed. Most voters Don t blame Reagan personally for soaring deficits worsening Trade balances slumps in agriculture Energy mining and Large areas of manufacturing. But they see these As warning signs of larger troubles ahead and Are deeply disturbed that Reagan in partic ular and republicans in general seem in different to the danger signals. Tim Weyer a 39-year-old Beaverton ore., personnel manager has shifted from the declining Wood products Indus try to the now shaky electronics Field. He reflected these crosscurrents when we talked in his driveway the other night about the kind of president he hoped would succeed Reagan. I d like to see someone who continues his Strong stand on defense he said but is a Little More concerned about economic problems. This has been a devastating Lime for some people and we need someone who is energetic and involved. Reagan is kind of a Leader from  the voters in heir Wisdom Are ready to Reward those folic Iris who have been energetic and involved especially in meet ing the Long term economic challenges. The safest Senate incumbents t have seen Are Sens. Ernest f. Hollings , a major figure in the Battle against budget deficits and Bob Packwood r-ore., a principal architect of tax Reform. Bitt the real strongmen id the states i have visited Are the governor who have developed economic growth strategies democrats Michael s. Dukakis in Massachusetts James  Blanc fund in Michigan and Joe Frank Harris in Georgia. The democratic party nationally is still a hazy blur to the voters lacking identity leadership or direction. Michael Jim and Joe Frank have Given their party identity in their Stales As Ron he in foreign affairs. But no one has. Jira bed that Mantle yet for 19bb. A Washington poll even with Reagan gop remains minority party has the nation s love affair with Ronald Reagan re enthroned the republicans As the majority party Many political scientists think so but political science is an oxymoron. The Only thing scientific about politics is fund raising. Otherwise it s As mystical and fully As self hypnotic As Faith heal ing. Political scientists and Many of my Brethren who peddle punditry hanker after profundity. This occupational weakness tempts them to find cosmic implications in ballots that simply Honor Lime tested principles of throwing out rascals or holding the nose and voting for lesser evils. To these entail readers Reagan s 84 landslide realigned the Power balance tomake the gop the majority party just As in Mckinley s Day. Bunk. The . Electorate is centrist and pragmatic. For damage control it divides the government Between parties with the aim of keeping anything much from happening. Far from following Charisma on horseback voters fear ideologues. What saved Reagan from the Fate of Barry Goldwater and George Mcgovey were first the vulnerabilities of Jimmy Carter and Waller Mondale and More important his modulated style. Never Rabid or shrill he radiates sincerity. He sat peace with himself. After Lyndon Johnson Richard Nixon and Carter we were ready for some serenity. Polls show most americans Don t Admire his Radical right philosophy so much As forgive it because be is consist in non threatening and less inhumane in deed than word. The 1988 election will be fascinating the first race without an incumbent since Vietnam dominated 1968, the first wide open one since Kennedy Nixon in 1960. Reagan will have Little to do with How it tunics out but what happens during his last two years will have a great Deal to do with it. Reagan s economic policies have made the Rich much Richer uie poor still poorer and the Middle class slightly Wouch lao a 3 num to worse off but he is not generally blamed. Despite his deficit Ana soaring National debt barring catastrophe he will ride off into the Sunset much loved and admired his parly s direction and popularity will depend largely on the nominee. Al most surely the religious right will turnoff Many of the Young who find Reagan attractive. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson Are becoming the Republican Jane Fonda and Jesse Jackson. Not i Young voters Are swayed by party i in presidential races anyway. A seem irrelevant to them. Republicans will be aided by their deep pockets and the tact Thi democrats with labor fading incr tar singly Are forced to rely on busing it Money. As a party entity uie gop Avn gains from the fact that its Boll Weevil sympathizers in the old Dixie rat move. Ment now Register Republican. But none of that adds up Lorea alignment particularly in the direction of. The conservatism movement that Formi Reagan s Core. People still vote their pocketbooks unless there1 a War threat to frighten them. If republicanism had clout you would t find its. Senate candidates this fall so Busy distancing themselves from Reagan s farm Trade deficit and sock policies. Parties just Don t mean tint much anymore. They re still around be cause we Haven t found anything to re place them. Voters react to character and Parson Ity or when Niyor events occur wifi hot eyed concentration on what they be Lieve to be their and the nations inter Estt that has Little to do with  and a Bunch to do with Lim i pie reality