European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 1, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes saturday november 1,1986 columns Tom Wicker race for Senate appears to be dead even no wonder president Reagan is racing around the country doing his formidable Best for endangered Republican senators. As he 1986 Campaign takes its last gasps the struggle for the . Senate appears lobe almost a dead heal with democrats within reach of the four additional scats they need for control. Here s a synthesis of information available to me from numerous sources including limited personal travel and Bush the Republican and democratic senatorial Campaign committees democratic gains there s general agreement that As things look now seats presently held by re publicans should be won nent tuesday by the demo cratic candidates in Florida Maryland and Nevada. Republican gains there s widespread agreement too that Christopher Bond the Republican candidate probably will defeat Harriet Woods the Democrat for the Missouri scat thai has been held by Tom Eagleton a Democrat. Leaning democratic in four races Loo Clos for confident prediction but where democrats seem to hold the Edge they have a Good Chance to pick up re publican seals in North Carolina and North Dakota and to retain democratic scats in California and Louisiana. Leaning Republican narrow bul by no Matins conclusive leads appear to be held by four incumbent Republican senators in Alabama Georgia South Dakota and Washington. Dead even not even an Edge of conceded by either Side in the Colorado race Between rep. Timworth Democrat ind Ken Kramer. Republican for the Seal from which Gary Han Democrat is retiring. Or in Idaho where Jov John tuns. A Democrat is trying to defeat the incumbent Republican senator Steve sym ins Long shots sen. Robert Kraslen Republican appears cell ahead of de , the democratic Chal Lenger in Wisconsin but some observers including republicans to Iutin that Kasten s sup Puri is  in Alaska sen Frank Murkowski. A Republican i generally considered Safe but As one political Huff put it something s going on in behalf of a Strung but late starting democratic candidate Glen Olds the president of Alaska Pacific University. All other scats Ai slake this year generally Are consid ered Safe for the partly now holding them. Leaving the to if shots out of account if All theother contested races turn out As this synthesis Sug George will 1 gotta so with Ullig Ltd Peen we Stock dec few con flu top Hwe a Ilion up the am bvtewellwitwamepw0uvthat targets a w$6a� a Myket vote Wise gels the democrats would pick up five Republican scats in Florida Maryland Nevada North Carolina and North Dakota but lose their Missouri Seal for Anet gain of four. That would leave the Issue of Senate control to he so tiled in Colorado and Idaho where one democratic and one Republican scat Are at slake. A Victory for i incr with in Colorado or Evans in Idaho if the suggested form held elsewhere would give the democrats to iwo scat majority. Only if the republicans won both these hotly contested seats could they retain Senate control and then by Solo so with vice 1 resident hush holding the tic breaking vote. Of course the form is not Likely to hold particularly in the eight states described As  Republican victories in North Carolina and North Dakota which arc entirely possible probably would insure continued Republican control certainly they would if rep. De Zschau also upset sen Alan Cranston in California. On the other hand possible but unexpected democratic successes in Alabama Georgia and Washington probably would result in a democratic majority no matter what happened i n Idaho and Colorado. The Southern Republican scats Are particularly significant aside from he Issue of Senate control. If As Many As three or even two of the four Republican scats in Alabama Florida Georgia and North Carolina Are reclaimed by the democrats a plausible expectation and the democrats also hold the Louisiana Seal they once Iverc expected to lose after the retirement of Russell Long the claimed Republican momentum in the South would be dramatically slowed if not turned around. That could be important for the 1988 presidential Campaign. As for Keagan it s Noi Clear whether his vigor Ous personal appeals will clench a Republican Victory or fail to Hall a democratic comeback. But his Power Ful late participation does dramatize a somewhat muddled but perhaps effective Republican theme that the nation should vote to continue the change of direction brought about in Ronald Reagan s six years of Power. Edgar assumes Specter of defeat for Specter syrup cools on rep. Bobed Gar s French Toast As he warms to his theme that geography is destiny. Pennsylvania has not elected a democratic senator since 1962, when Joe Clark won but Edgar says he will beat the Republican incumbent Arlen Specter because both he and Specter Are from the Philadelphia area. The significance of such an upset would be difficult 10 decipher because Edgar s ideology and Pennsylvania geography arc both powerful factors. In 1980, Specter 56, was one of six Republican freshmen who won with less than $ i percent. He carried heavily democratic Philadelphia by 12,000 votes against an opponent from a for eign province Pittsburgh. Specter lost the Western part of Pennsylvania but carried the conservative Middle. Edgar 43, plans to carry Philadelphia Cut spectres majorities in Philadelphia a s suburbs where Edgar s District is run respectably in mid Pennsylvania where he will be helped by being an ordained methodist minister and win on a Western Pennsylvania tide. Pittsburgh is the Only major metro Politan area where Ronald Reagan s 1984 percentage was smaller than his 1980 percentage. Waller Mondale thumped him there. Western Pennsylvania democrats arc conservative. The almanac of american politics says the percentage of wives working is lower in the pills Burgh area than in almost any other metropolitan area partly because jobs arc scarce but also because of a Blue Collar conviction that wives should slay Home Edgar is an unreconstructed undiluted Liberal who gets nearly perfect scores from Liberal and environmental rating groups and flunks tests set by conservative and pro defense groups. But he is s minister. Besides Western Pennsylvania has a High percentage of democrats who Vole a straight tic til that is crucial to Edgar who eve after Waves of advertising goes unrecognized on Pittsburgh streets. Pennsylvania used to symbolize America s Industrial sinews. America first Oil Field was there. Pennsylvania was the saudi Arabia of Coal. Pennsyl Vania was synonymous with steel. But by 1985, steel Industry employment nationwide Hud plummeted 58 percent from its 1953 Peak of 726,000. Be tween 1930 and 1980, Pennsylvania s population grew Only from 9.5 million la 11.9 million the smallest growth among Large states. Since 1950, Penn Sylvania s congressional delegation has contracted from 32 to 23. Edgar s liberalism translates Penn Sylvania s difficulties into traditional Public works opportunities. He says 360,000 of Pennsylvania s 600,000 ground water Wells Are contaminated and that at the Hilton in Scranton you find a bottle of Perrier next to you sink to use when brushing your Teeth. Industry he says dryly does not locale where people must both the water. Lie says one third of the nation s dilapidated Bridge 31,000 of them Are in Pennsylvania. Build Bridges not bombs could be a slogan for Edgar the archetypal  he decided on a political vocation on the night in october 973 thai president Nixon fired special prosecutor Archibald Cox. Edgar s suburban Philadelphia District which prior to 1974 had not elected a democratic congressman since 1858, has a Republican registration advantage Over democrats 210,000-90,000. How does Edgar do it conservatives regard Edgar the Way liberals regard Reagan As a Man whose soft manner masks a hard ideological Edge. However it is hard to know How to regard Specter. If politics were baseball. Specter would be termed a  he began As a Democrat but became a Republican and something of a Prodigy by getting elected As Philadelphia s District attorney in 1965. Then in i years he lost four of five elections. Al though he was re elected As . In 1969, he was Defeated running for mayor in 1967, for . In 1973, for the Senate nomination in 1976, and for the gubernatorial nomination in1978. But in sprawling Pennsylvania there is a Ira Dilion of failing upward of losing a few statewide races while building name recognition. In 1980, running in Reagan s Slipstream. Spec Ter slipped into the Senate with a 50.9 percent Victory. Edgar like Reagan is a conviction politician but with anti Reagan convictions. Specter is a survivor and probably will survive because he can be counted on to cast More Reagan votes than Edgar would. Edgar the minister May be forgiven for suspect ing that there it no god and he ii a Republican anyway