European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 9, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse The stars and stripes sunday november 9,1986 columns Daniel Schorr . Must recognize utilize iranian changes the lesson to be Learned from the free ing of David Jacobsen from Hii 17-month Captivity in Lebanon is that the break in the hostage situation probably stems More from a Mideast Power struggle than from external efforts to gain their Freedom. That lesson was first Learned in the hostage crisis after the seizure of the american embassy in Teh ran in 1979. Hard line elements in the Khomeini regime successfully resisted a settlement until Iran was invaded by Iraq in september 1980. Only the did the iranian regime begin serious negotiations apparently hoping but failing to Complete them before the . Presidential election. Then now the Iran Iraq War was a major consideration. Then As now there were reports that Iran was seeking military hardware As part of the Deal. Indeed Reagan strategists fearing an octo Ber Surprise that would Aid president Carter s re election circulated reports that such a Deal was in the works. Now there Are credible reports that Robert Mcfarlane former National Security adviser visited Tehran in september on a secret Mission for president Rea Gan. Mcfarlane is declining comment. The Story appears to have been leaked to a lebanese Magazine by a faction involved in a Power struggle in Iran. Intelligence officials say what is happening in Iran is dramatic Iran hurling from iraqi bombing of its of installations appears to have abandoned plans for final offensive against Iraq for which a Force of half million hid been mobilized. The Ayatollah Ali Hussein Mont awry who was the Ayatollah Khomeini s proclaimed successor has apparently been losing influence to a More moderate fac Lian of governmental and parliamentary Leaden whore reportedly convinced thai Iran s desperate my lion Calli for Fence mending with Arab countries like saudi Arabia and with the United Stales. These officials apparently with the Mcquie Cence of Ayatollah Khomeini arranged far the arrest of several hard liners including Ayatollah Roguze Nicson in Law Mehdi Hashemi. He headed the of Nee coot trolling pro iranian revolutionaries abroad including the Hezbollah party of god in Lebanon and prob. Bly Ibe Hezbollah s offshoot the terroristic which is responsible for most of the kidnappings in Power play in Tehran is believed to have been the key Factor w changing the Tutelage situation. Syria which controls Lebanon s Bekaan Valley where the terrorism Are based and where most of the hostages Are believed to have been held appears to have Nad Little influence in the current situation. That Waite was in Beirut and Cyprus making final Amine Menta for Jacobsen s release. Islamic jihad which has been demanding the me lease of terrorists imprisoned in Kuwait timed m statement suggesting that it bad won from the Reagan administration some Concession in the for Ninf new that is probably Faw saving fsr a group that was obliged in the end to do the bidding of Teh ran perhaps dragging its heels. Reagan and his aides May be doing some face saving Loo. Having resolutely opposed negotiations to free the hostages they now suggest that the administration was More involved in the than was generally known. To the extent that the administration did play a Row it was in recognizing and utilizing a changing Situa Tion in Iran. That was just what Carter ined to do a 1980 with no help from candidate Reagan. Of Dum Echon k a Tarti to Tom my tonic William Buckley poll yields interesting data about . Voters. I n. Ift l-____4. Tim tit Aiila dwt Lui the new York times has for the third time published a portrait of the electorate a brilliantly conceived and comprehensively imaginative study of who voted for the democrats who for the republicans. An explanation informs us that the possibility of error is Given by statisticians As not greater than plus or minus a single percentage Point. One Hundred voting components Are exam ined yielding a remarkable particularity of response. Here Are some of the findings women Are More heavily demo cratic by 3 percent than men. But the four year trend favors the republicans by 4 percent. Among Whites republicans beat democrats just slightly by 2 percent but the trend is solidly Republican by pc Iceni. Blackt an overwhelmingly demo cratic 86 percent to 14 percent though the trend u Ever to slightly Republican by 1 percent. Hispanics Are almost As heavily democratic As Blacks 75 percent to 25 percent. The trend shows no movement of any sort. The age of the voters matters very Little though the highest disparity is among 4sto-i9-Yeai-Olds, Iso vote democratic s4 percent to 46 percent by Cason. Yon Sople 18 to 29 vote democratic but Only by a margin of 51 percent to 49 percent in every age grouping the trend is Republican among the youngest voters 59 percent voted democratic in 1982,but Only 51 percent in 1986. On the whole the More education the voter has the Likely he is to vote Republican ranging from 57 percent to43 percent for non High school graduates to 51 percent to 49 percent for Colleg graduates. The most solidly democratic Region continues to be the South 56 pc Iceni to 44 percent the least the West is per cent to 49 percent. Only the Midwest has moved in the democratic direction during the past eight years from 49 per cent 10 53 percent by contrast the East has moved toward the gop from 35 percent to 48 percent. Democrats Are least popular wit White fundamentalists or evangelical christians 31 percent most popular with jews 70 percent. White protes Tants prefer the top 57 percent Cath Olics lie democrats 55 percent. There is surprisingly Little difference in party preference Between the poor under 112,500,56 percent democratic and the Rich Over . 47 percent democratic. But Here there is quite emphatic movement in the past four years. In the Tow income group anti democratic from 73 percent democratic support to 56 percent support in the High in come pro democratic from 37 percent to 47 percent. The unemployed and government employed Are heavily democratic 63percent, 62 percent whee homemakers and professionals Are exactly split 50percent to 50 percent. Union households Are democratic 63 percent 10 37 percent. First Lime voters weal Republican 51 percent to 49 percent. Married voters were More narrowly democratic j1 percent than unmarried voters 56 percent. Southern Blacks Are More overwhelmingly democratic than Eastern Black 93 percent to 87 percent. One third of democrats approve of Reagan 36 percent while 64 percent of republicans approve of him. The figures Are All interesting but probably in respect of Blacks and jews they Are most interesting even if they Are dismaying. Whereas in four Yean jewish enthusiasm for the democrats reduced from 82 percent to 70 percent Black loyalty tothe democrats during the same period moved insignificantly 89 percent to 86percent. Moreover Black affiliation with the democratic Cany proved much stronger than any putative Dlack affiliation Lor other Blacks. This was Matt most starkly Clear i Michigan where the republicans nominated a Black William Laos for Gover nor who opposed a Waite democratic incumbent James Blanehard. The White Democrat Defeated the Blade Republican by a 69 percent to 31 percent margin. Michigan s Black congressman. Joh Conyers denounced to Jim on grounds that he was Black Only on. But birth certificate and As much a traitor to his people As those jews who led their Brothers and Sisters into the oven of the holocaust running for mayor in Washington . Whit Republican Carol quoting Martin usher King i want to be accepted for to omit Flomy character not the color of my i Schwartz said she was counting ,14phislicated voting among tracks Washington. You can be sore the Pabe less voting for Mack Kcf of the sail per a who Iti do the Bat she lost 61 percent to 33 percent indeed the Black Moji Factor of critical consequence. Alabama North Carolina to California would have gone 1 As would the organization off Ibe Black vote bad been cent More Republican Winner of the whole election York s nov. Mario Booty of White vote. Percent to 49 percent tin certainty r1Trepublicans have a Wibeto Boot Bow u talk to Mac that Black voters hav a
