European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 22, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes saturday. November 12,18b6 Flora Lewis iranian Deal demonstrates a failure of analysis both president Reagan and his former National Security adviser Robert Mcfarlane have Knight to compare dropping in on inn Wilh complimentary House gift to the Nixon administration secret diplomacy with Chin. This is obviously in part an attempt to refute the implications or trading arms for a Lew of the . Hostages in Lebanon. But their explanation should be taken at face  parts they teem to think they were nurturing a Strate Gic reorientation in Mcfarlane s words. He argues to cover himself that such an attempt is never tree of risk As though the Only difference Between his Sally to Tehran and Henry Kissinger secret trip to peking wag that be failed while Kissinger succeeded. The trouble was t bad Luck however but a serious failure of analysis. There it room Here to list All the contrasts in the two situations and the shallow Neo of the comparison. The essential Point i that Whitehouse reasoning showed no undemanding of the Ira Nian revolution and its current stage. Reagan touched on it when he said iranian policy has been devoted to expelling All Western influence from the Middle East. But then he Drew the contradictory conclusion that the United states could Cozen inn into restoring a relationship with the United Stales ending the persian Gulf War and Stop Ping terrorism god finally effect a Safe return of Al hostages from  his in t the first White House to delude itself in precisely this Way Zbigniew Brzezinski when he was National Security adviser to president Carter met in Algiers but not secretly with iranian prime minister Mehdi Bazargan and foreign Minuter Ibrahim Yazdi and told them the United Stales had nothing against Iran s religion views or its nationalism so Norma relations should be possible. The immediate aftermath was the seizure of . Embassy in Tehran and the Long ordeal of the hostages. There is now substantial evidence that the hostage takers acted initially not so much to humiliate the United slates but to Force the downfall of Bazarg Anand Yazdi. The mullahs weren t going to risk losing control of their revolution to people dealing with the United slates. There have been changes since the effects of the War the deteriorated economic situation in Iran. Bui there it a raging Battle for succession to Aya Louah Khomeini. Instead of thinking it can influence the outcome the United state should have known there could t be a worse time to venture into a Power struggle it know Little about. More intriguing than the faulty uninformed ambitions Reagan accepted from his adviser is the israeli role in promoting their Hopes. Jerusalem has consistently taken the View that it Baa affinities with Iran an common hostility to the arabs. This was True until the fall of the Shah. The argument about Iran s regional and strategic importance Are valid in a Long historical sense but test getting rid of the Wen. There in t really a consensus in Jerusalem about whether Israel will eventually Benefit from its willingness to help Iran secretly now. Those who think Soare probably wrong. The other argument supported by iranian exiles it that anybody who Helm the regime now will be seen unfriendly when it give Way to the modern world. The israeli View however is thai Jerusalem strategic consensus with the United states mean it should not Only receive help from America but offer id services. No doubt that is meant in Good will but it in t any reason for Washington to accept Willy Nilly. If those israelis Are right about maintaining by Honor scenes Contact Wilh Tehran despite its vehement anti israeli rhetoric when the time conies fur anybody to Benefit . Interest would inevitably be served Welt. If they Are wrong As 1 believe the United state should not be involved and it is Hurt More than embattled Israel. It could be a no lose situation for Washington if a in earlier years it let Jerusalem take its decision and stood aside. There is a value in proxies. They can test without committing. But activists in Washington seem to want to jump inon their own. The same mistake is being made in an Gola where the United slates is incomprehensibly picking up part of the Tab for South Africa s support of the rebel Leader Jonas Sav Imbi. That one is pure no win. If the United Stales wants to play cynical geopolitics it need at least the ability to identify the players calculate the Odds and read the score. The sheer  of it All is the most upsetting. Self deception is even worse than deceiving others. Tim Wyo if Tuthi Tom Wicker if Reagan is we he ii seek some Good advice not since his stumbling performance in his first debate with Waller Mondale in 1984 have Ameri cans seen president Reagan so Uncertain so Tongue tied and so inept As they saw him in his news Confer ence on Iran or so deceptive some in Congress and elsewhere would add. Reagan s performance must have been a Shock for Many television viewers who have so often seen him Rise above difficult situations Wilh Charm sincerity and indifference to detail. As sen. George Mitchell of Maine a Democrat put in Reagan was clearly ill at ease and understandably so defending a policy that is  repeatedly the president denied that he or his administration had condoned or that he even knew about shipments of arms from any other countries to Iran a denial contradicting what had been established by statements from the israeli government an from White House officials including Reagan s chief of staff and his National Security adviser. These misstatements led to a written White House admission issued within 30 minutes of the close of the news conference that a third country had been involved in the arms shipments. That was Only the most egregious presidential error if that s what it was. Reagan stated u fact for another example that he had the Legal Power to with hold from congressional leaders information about his secret dealings with Iran. Those leaders deny his authority to do so for ii months when the Law in ques Tion requires timely notification to them. Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana the chairman of the foreign relations committee has been a Loyal spokes Man for the president. But even be conceded on Annec news program following the press conference thai Reagan apparently did not understand the Law on timely notification of Congress. The president also continued to insist that his shipment of arms to inn and the release of three hostages by their captors in Lebanon did not constitute a  yet be indicated that in seeing arms to Iran he had been Demon Strating that we were trustworthy and he conceded that the 1 iranians had been told that they could show their Good Faith by releasing  he admitted no contradiction in waiving a , embargo to Supply arms to Iran while urging other nations not to make such shipments. And he insisted that Secre tary of stale George Shutlz had been involved in the iranian affair although a Bull s own statements have cast doubt on the extent of his involvement. The .-1kan1an dealings were not government to government the president insisted. But he did not explain How arms could be sold to the iranian armed forces if the iranian government was not a party to the agreement. At one Point in enumerating those goals Reagan could remember Only three of them. At another he could no remember a roughly worded question that had just Bee put to him by Bill flame of lbs news. Frequently he appeared confused and inarticulate As the press corps bombarded him with some of the most specific and sep tical questions of his six years in office. As expected Reagan said no further arms shipments would go to Iran. Beyond that however he promised no step Al All to study or rectify what had gone wrong or to make any necessary changes in i foreign policy making procedures. This May have put up a bold front but in violated the sound political principle of cutting Short a Hami Iutin controversy by taking some remedial action and it immediately brought crushing criticism from sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia and former Secretary of state Henry Kissinger. Nunn the incoming chairman of the armed serv ices committee spoke on the Abc news program with Lugar. He probably enhanced his emerging Posi Tion As a National democratic Leader when he bluntly accused Reagan of seven major contradictions an urged him to Call on a group of Wise men for help in reshaping the administration s foreign policy and itt policy making machinery including personnel on the same program Kissinger who is usually circumspect about criticizing a Republican i " not Only said it was impossible that the . Knew Norving Oft Radi arms shipments to Iran be also agreed we Nunn i can for Wise men to straighten out the pred Mel s foreign policy. No doubt he d be one of them of rub himself is Wise enough to take some Good advice