European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 6, 1986, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 columns the stars and stripes saturday Owman tire 1966 Flora Lewis it s time the . Normalized relations with Poland Warsaw Poland sporadic talks Are Coin Oab tween Poland Tod the us on lifting us remaining sanctions imposed after the declaration of Mutiel la where in 1981. September s Annetty freeing the politic prisoners in effect met Wain Toita conditions for restoring Normal relation. Mart Al Taw was lifted in 1983. The unction did their sped a Job. It is unlikely the prisoners would hive been please otherwise although it i evident thai the regime gained immediately on its Home around from i measure that was popular and relieved an important internal grievance. It has already reaped some Reward. The question of whether sanctions work or nothing on Whit they an meant to achieve and they can Only achieve specific limited goals. The answer Alt depends on being flexible enough to end the discrimination when these goats Are reached it is Unedia Vandable that there is hesitation i Washington because when prisoners were freed a Cou ple of years ago and some sanctions were lifted the sesame people were then narrated. There can be no guarantees. Lech Walesa the Leader of the now banned Independent Union Solidarity says about the possibility of future arrests nothing they the rulers do could sur prise us still a Peculiar relation has developed Between the regime and what it Calls the opposition but which everybody else Calls the there in t any direct dialogue which both tides have said they want but Tom Wicker for which they insist on vastly different terms. But there is a recognition of each other each con stantly looking Over its shoulder to tee what the other will do. This imposes tacit restraints. What each Doe depends on what the other does. In these circumstance. So Long As they hold new arrests of known Leaden Are unlikely although the government has Given itself the Power to impose heavy monetary Fine and Short jail terms. The circumstances should nonetheless retaken As an adequate guarantee. Walesa now says that he was misinterpreted and that the regime his october statement calling for an end to sanctions. Me had made conditions he said in an interviewing Gdansk of real Reform a term just As vague As the regime s promises. Otherwise he pointed out Newald would also be wasted As usual in Poland there Are intricacies of politics within the politics on each Side. The essential however is that the whole country is in a dramatically bad economic situation and it no longer serves anybody s interest to add disadvantages for political reasons. . Should say that s that and go Back to Ordinary policy. That would mean restoring most favored nation tariffs for imports from Poland ending the ban on . Government guaranteed Export credits and ending opposition to polish membership in the if and the world Bank where Warsaw Hopes for fresh funds. Another words it Means leaving economic relations to purely economic considerations. There s the rub. As opposition polls say . Policy is now inconsistent since it does not penalize worse violators of human rights such As the soviet Union and Romania in the same Way. But then in t the slightest Prospect that incentives would produce the great flow of hard currency that the government seem to expect indeed to consider its due. Poland now owes some s3 billion a year for interest payment alone on i $34bobon Den and it net hard currency income amount to Between 11 billion and $1,5 Biff Lon a year. Lifting sanctions would probably bring in no More than a Lew Hundred million. There is a lot of official talk about joint venture Sand Good business prospects Hen. But Western Busi Neumen and Bankers badly burned by Poland waste Ful misuse of credits in the 1970s, Are wary about any thing but Short term Quick return investments or More management control and repayment guarantee than Warsaw is yet prepared to concede. The proof that once again the regime seems to be feeding on its own illusions is that there an no More West european sanctions against Poland but neither Are Marks or pounds or Banes pouring in. Having blamed so much of its trouble on . Sanctions the name will be hard put to explain Why things Don t get a lot better when they Are lifted. It Cornea Back to the aame old impasse. The econ omy requires painful reforms that the people will Only accept if there Are political concessions which the re Gime won t give. But the . Should no longer be a party to the blockage. It s the polish government problem. C Nyo 1
