European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 14, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes saturday March 14,1987 Anthony Lewis sanctions proving themselves in South Africa Congress had hardly passed unction legis lation Lait year Over president Reagan s veto when opponents began pronouncing it a failure White South african were withdrawing from Altitude of change the critics said the . Sanctions were stiffening Resis Tance Lolohe end of apartheid. Bui we have Tome evidence on the question now and it Points the other Way. The evidence is in the White election Campaign going on in South Africa and the fissures that it shows Nave opened in the Long dominant National party significant elements in the afrikaner elite have Bro Ken from the party and government because of the nation s failure to move away from White supremacy Rule. Professionals editors and business people arc calling for real Steps toward political rights for Blacks. Denis Worrell until recently ambassador to Britain and others arc running As independents against National party incumbents. The political ferment no doubt has a number of cause. Bui one of them n the effect of sanctions on the perception of some while South africans the perception of their own interest. Gary player the South african golfer made that almost explicit the other Day in a political comment. He was speaking in support of the candidates who have split Tram the National party. South Africa is new the Skunk among nations he said. With 6 million Miles behind me i be travelled men than any other athlete in history and i be always held that this is the greatest country in the world. But where there was once friendliness there is now grow ing hatred. I Pray that Worrall and some of the inde Pendents win and give us Hope the purpose of sanctions property understood has always been to Force a Choice on Whites. Until now Soun Aon Cotoc Birot Flora Lewis they have enjoyed both a privileged status at Home and acceptance abroad economic and psychological. Now the elite is beginning to see hat White South Africa must choose one or the other. Such people As player and Worral care that the world is closing markets to South Africa thai the cannot Ravel easily As South africans that their com Merce May have to hide behind front men. So they Are forced to choose and they choose what makes South Africa the greatest country not its racism but it wonderful people its economic potential. For less affluent whiles the Choice will very Likely look different. A third of All employed afrikaners work for inc stale and they especially May see the end of racism As a threat to their economic privileges. The parties of inc far right will gain votes from them in the May 6 election. But it matters that leaders of the Community Are speaking in a new voice. All this provides a singular Opportunity for Ameri can leadership. Thai leadership role has been urged on the Reagan administration by advisers it chose itself the Secretary of state s advisory committee on South Africa which reported in january. The committee had co chairmen who Wens far from Radical Frank to Gary former head of Flam. And William t. Coleman jr., Secretary of transportation Inich Ford administration. They and seven of the other 10 members joined in calling for Strong presidential leadership including continued pressure on South Africa the report said the most urgent Challenge facing the United stat Sand Othar memoirs of the International Community is to convince president . Botha and his supporters that it is in their interest to negotiate now rather loan later. Unfortunately they appear unlikely to accept this reality until a further combination of internal an external pressures raises the financial and human costs of maintaining  three members objected to the report s Call for firm use of sanctions. Yet their words ironically showed the importance of sanctions. The dissenters said the United states should strive through diplomacy to bring about the Icar tics possible negotiations Between the South african government and Black leaders but the United states has been urging that for years. We All know that South Africa will not respond to words without pressure will not make the Choice. The intent step for american policy is to bring our allies along on the sanctions we have imposed first of ail the ban on air traffic from South Africa. So far the Reagan administration has rejected its own advisers urgings and continues to oppose sanctions. But the process that has begun to work in South Africa will Call Ever More plainly for firmness not hand wringing from America.  or election May loosen Botha s grip on Power teething is beginning to Mir among ruling Well As from his right shifting the issues in the Cam Erna Cut weakened by the coming vote perhaps s in South Africa it is just a crack in the oppress pain a debate is developing about the need to move into Alliance politics with another group Louii Structure but it matters because time is the Crit on to a democracy embracing All South africans to taking any initiatives in the two years be something Sti while oppressive Structure Crit Teal dimension change will come. The question is Only whether or not it awaits explosive disaster. The glacial Pace of reforms eroding the margins of apartheid under president , Botha has already split off a right Wing faction of the dominant National party Botha has called an election to the All White chamber of the parliament for May 6. He was planning an election Campaign aimed at recouping the Voles of the extremists by denouncing american and other for eign meddling and the african National Congress the banned organization of Blacks. But now people Are breaking off on the other Side of the National party arguing for negotiations on Power sharing with Blacks and an end to apartheid. There has Long been White opposition to the government s poli cies but from people in the English speaking minority. The new defections Are from the afrikaner majority a my with close lies to the regime. Three people have already announced that they will leave the National party to run for seats As Independent candidates and there May be More before the lists Are closed on March 31. Their views have been supported by some leading afrikaner journalists and 27 academics from Secl Tenbosch University the matrix of afrikaner intellectualism. This Means Botha faces a Challenge from his left As Wel pain. O t. Although draconian censorship under the state of emergency is still in Force it applies to turbulence in Lack communities and such questions As the Fate of detainees said to be 25,000, including 10,000 Chil Dren. There is no censorship on political arguments among Whites in the Peculiar quarantined democracy they have reserved for themselves. Nobody supposes Botha s party will fail to win and form the next government. Nor is there much expectation that afrikaners will switch from the nationalist so the English speaking progressives. Harald Pakendorf a leading afrikaner editor who has become a dissident says this country has some deep fundamental problems. People Are looking for Clear answers which the government in t  who agree and Don t happen to live in one of the few constituencies with an Independent on the ballot will probably abstain or spoil their votes As the Best available protest against the government. So at Best the elections will whittle Down Botha mandate but this can be significant. Only twice in South Africa s history bos a government been ousted at the polls in 1924 and in 1948 when the nationalists on Power. On other occasions it has been forced into coalition arrangements that then led to shifts in Power and policy. Pakendorf believes it is unlikely hat a Botha gov Enmen s forced int would be up t Takin initiative i the to years before the next regular elections. It would try1 to stand still against the rising tide of Black impatience. That is Why persistent opposition from the United Stales and the rest of the outside world is so important. Sanctions have not caused deterioration in the Economy so far nor has inc foreign outcry undermined while electoral support for the stale of emergency and the Clampdown on the press. In fact press restrictions have Well served the government s cynical purpose. Now that there an no longer regular to pictures of Blacks being battered Homes destroyed women pleading 10 know where their Chil Dren have been taken there is lets outside pressure on South Africa to face its shame. But what Chance there is of avoiding eventual catastrophe is diminished by each Day of postponing an attempt to negotiate a Way out. It is necessary to re member that what we do not Sec and hear from South Africa nonetheless continues to happen. Silence in this Case is not Calm pressure so far has surety played a role in provoking some afrikaners to rethink their country s future it must be sustained to support them and increase their numbers because the loss of two More years could be fateful. Out of sight South Africa should not be out of mind. C to Yak to Mui