European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - April 4, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                A 10 the stars and stripes saturday april 4, 196? columns Flora Lewis latin America s historic vicious Circle Laid Bare Mario Vargas Llosa the world class peruvian writer was talking about Hopes and problems in latin America. If we latin americans do win Theattle for Freedom he said we can say we won it ourselves against our enemies and despite  me was addressing a conference of the trilateral commission in san Francisco attended by several Hundred mostly establishment types from Europe Japan and the United states and the subject was third world debt. Because he is a novelist and not politician a banker or a bureaucrat Vargas Llosa fell no need to varnish ugly truths we and we atone Are responsible for our future he said evoking the centuries of absolute Power and lawlessness from pre Cotom Blan empires through co Lonial Days to the present which established a tradition of violence but something new is happening. Democratic governments Are emerging in most countries of the Conti nent based on the will of the Humble nameless Menand women the usually poor often illiterate people of our countries he said. They have been spurred by the terrible Vio Lence of which they have been the victims he said. This violence the result of intolerance fanaticism and Dogma has been practice both by revolutionary terrorists and political or military counter terrorists and has littered our continent with the dead the Tor lured the kidnapped the disappeared and these people in their vast majority have been the poor. Martin Gottlieb the Ordinary people have Opid for democracy Inan attempt to find an escape from this Nightmare reality or civil War terrorism  repression revolutionary tatty. Blind executions and the proliferation of torture. They decided to support that  intuitively and  they tit ought would be Best Able to defend human rights or oppress them  Vargas loss has no illusions about How hard it Wilt be Tor the societies to change Themi Elvei and their habits. But he is convinced that Lack of democracy snot so much the result As the cause of under develop  is in a coincidence thai when at last there is movement the societies Are caught in an economic grinder that deprives them of the Means to meet their Peoples Basic needs. Some factors Are beyond their control the fail of commodity prices on which they rely for Export earnings. But the debt Burden itself Isth heritage of the authoritarian governments they have just shaken  democracy Vargas Llosa believes can bring the reforms latin America requires to achieve development and social Justice to work its Way out of its historic vicious Circle moreover he said i a convinced although i m not sure whether to be Happy or sad about in thai when a latin american nation chooses democracy it not Only chooses Freedom and the Rule of Law but the most extreme form of Independence As Well. This is because no other Type of government receives less support from the West. Than those regimes in the third world that try to live the ideals of Freedom and pluralism which Are the West s greatest contribution to the world. I doubt Chalany democratic nation in the underdeveloped world has received the credits and subsidies Cuba has received front the soviet Union and it is certainly Irue that no latin american nation fighting to live in peace and Freedom within the Law Ever before aroused the militant sympathy Thailand Khisla Nicaragua has inspired in Liberal and progressive circles in the  but Vargas Dom is not bitter and he was t blaming anyone. He was pleading for a sensible and realistic approach from creditor countries that would allow the fragile democracies to pay off their debts As they Are Able without destroying their own social base. He suggested for example that debt service be linked to Export prices. There Are other possible ways of reducing the squeeze but there is nol much Chance for a democracy to survive if miserable living standards keep being forced Down. The alternatives Are new military or revolutionary regimes More economic stagnation More misery. Let us All make an Effort to contribute what Ever we can to see that in works he asked. It is a thoughtful moving Appeal in America s bes interest As Well. Novelist who must use their imagination can sometimes see More clearly than men of authority. Theory suggests 1988 is promising for demos after 1984, some people concluded that the democrats must be considered the underdog in any presidential election. The party had won Only three of thelast nine elections two of them in squeakers 1960 and 1976 the gop Hail wan five huge victories 1952,1956, 1972, 1980 and 1984. The democrats had t won solidly since 1964. However a professor in Washington Allan licht Man has a powerful theory suggesting thai 1988 is promising for the democrats. He said so in late1984. To predict an outcome. Lichtman asks 13 question derived from i look at All presidential elections since 1860. Using the 13, he can predict the outcome of each past election except two which fall into a Margi Nal category. If More than five of the 13 answers reflect negative Lyon the party in Power it will lose. If fewer than live do it will win. I five do no prediction can be made. These Are the questions with an indication a which answer favors the in party did the in party get a Vole of at least is percent m the last election yes did it have a serious contest for its nomination this Lime no was there a major third party or inde pendent Campaign no is the incumbent president on the ticket yes is the election held during a recession or depression no did the Economy grow faster in the last four years than in the previous eight an faster than 1 percent per year yes did the president initiate major changes in National policy in Bis mos recent term yes was there major social unrest Dur ing the term no was the administration tainted by major scandal no did it suffer a major setback in foreign or military policy no did it achieve a major Success in foreign or military policy yes is the in party s candidate charismatic or a notional hero yes is the out party s candidate no lid Itman s method suggests that the performance of he incumbent is crucial to determining the outcome of an election and that the behaviour of the out party snot. Rep. Pat Schmo Cdr d-colo., has cited the licht Man theory in refuting the notion Hal the democrats must change a lot if they want to win in 198. Shemay however be somewhat Over Reading Lichtman. Modem parties that have come Back from enormous defeats to win have generally moved toward the Politi Cal Center first the cop in 1968 and the democrats in1976. If parties Stop reacting the Way they normally have would t that mess up the Lichtman theory which is based an historical precedent Lichtman 1snt appalled at Schroeder he notes hat when the democrats lost big in 1956, they did t change direction for 1960. But of course they were already pretty centrist he does t believe the democrats must move to the right. Assuming that the 1988 outcome will depend on president Reagan s performance what about 1992? what can the democrats do now to come up with a re de table president the Lichtman criteria can be read to suggest that in democrats should nominate a real Liberal someone who will make major policy changes and pursue som foreign policy breakthrough perhaps a major arms control agreement. However to enact major Domestic changes the democrats would probably have to first build support for them in the Campaign. That suggests that the should run an Issue oriented Campaign. However no modern party coming Back from disaster successfully the Democrat in 1960 and 1976, the gop in 1968 has done that so the democrats can either adopt the tried and True Way of making comebacks and then run a centrist presidency and Hope that Good Luck will pull the through in 92 or they can take the risk of running a Liberal Issue oriented Campaign in aggressive Pursuit of a Long term payoff Lei can i emm Hartpence Fella change his name a6aik?