European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - August 11, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes tuesday August 11.1987 William Safire . Intervention in Gulf actually helping Iran in the Long Iran Iraq War in the persian Gulf begun by Arab Iraq s aggression the iranians have been fighting 10 win while inc arabs have been fighting to Settle. If those strategies continue Tehran will to Mph and he United Stales will have involved itself on the losing Side. For Tehran to win that is to depose Iraq s dicta Tor and to achieve fundamentalist religious dominance throughout the Arab world Iran must be certain to maintain the Oil income that equips its armies and feeds its people. Bal Means first that Iran must transport its Oil by tankers through the Gulf with some guarantee thai those cargoes will not be destroyed by iraqi planes. Second the Victory strategy demands that the Price of that iranian Oil be maintained at a level High enough to support Iran s military machine taken together High priced Oil transported safely will buy Iran the guns and missiles needed to Back its Wilt to win. How Are the arabs and their american allies com batting this strategy very curiously. The u a after one of its warships was attacked by an Arab bomber has rushed to protect Arab shipping in the Gulf. We fail to grasp that the main threat to shipping comes from Iraq which must reduce the out flow of iranian Oil and we disregard die first Rule of Gulf wan free navigation benefits the iranians far More than the iraqis. But in re digging Arab tankers and using our warships to protect them we Are also telling the iraqis to Stop attacking iranian shipping. The High minded us. Strategy seems to be to bring cease lire to Gulf Waters with each Side s tankers proceeding unmolested. That is exactly what Iran wants. That is Why an iranian Mission has been dispatched to Kuwait to offer a Deal get Iraq to end in effective bombing of our tankers say the iranians and we will a Topper ineffective efforts to interdict your shipping. The iranians would thus get what they need unmolested trans port of their Oil. The . Would have intervened on the Side of the arabs but in the name of free navigation would be aiding the iranians. Therefore the Mutt of the american intervention is Likely to help Iran win. Which is not our stated goal. We have been bucker cd by the nervous kuwaitis into a no win strategy thai undermines the iraqis and protect the Oil delivery of their common iranian enemy. What about the second pillar of iranian economic Power the Price of Oil is a key to the Ayatollah i Victory plan. If the Price of Oil were to be halved in would be Ai severe a blow As sinking half the tankers transporting iranian Oil. The saudis kor v this a couple of years ago to starve the iranians into submission inc saudis agreed with their Arab Brethren to raise production and there William f. Buckley or. Jook Thorrol  Howeto be Bowers by reduce world Oil prices thai was Sheik Yamani s Finisi hour in the Price manipulation business Oil prices collapsed to under $10 a barrel. The saudis who could lift Oil at a Cost of a half Dollar a barrel lost Little on the increased production the iranians who produce at six limes Hal Cost Tost two thirds of their Oil Revenue thai was when the iranian Oil minister paid a visit to saudi King fahd in Riyadh. Reduce production to raise prices or else was the message Iran was prepared to stimulate an uprising of shiite Follower of the Aya Zollah within fahd s sparsely populated kingdom. The nervous saudis caved to Sheik Yamani was tired production was Cut and the Price of Oil has risen to Over $20 a barrel. Here we Are Loday. The iranians to drive Home to the saudis the reality of their Ihn Rai infiltrated thou Sands of demonstrators armed with bombs into the most holy places of islam with instructions to Martyr themselves in stampedes. The saudis suppressed the demonstrators and More significantly responded by demanding that errant Syria declare its Solidarity with the arabs. But and Here is the Central difference Between iranian and Arab Core attitudes in this War the saudis have not even threatened to Rais production and Cut the Price of Oil. They Are still hoping to Settle not using their economic Power to help Iraq fight to win. King fahd has taken the riots on his soil As a Khomeini threat requiring rhetorical anger and be Hind the scenes amelioration and nol As a provocation calling for real retaliation. While the us. Is in effect helping Iran move its Oil safety the saudis Are helping Iran keep ils prices High. As a result the iranians arc ate to buy nearly a billion dollars Worth of arms a year from China to i in lesions of would be martyrs. Until arabs decide to Fig hmm win the purposeful  Livili not a stopped. Nicaraguan peace pan is guaranteed of fail Washington is stir crazy won Dering what the Nicaragua cease fire peace initiative is All about and nobody is More troubled irian fellow columnist Mary Mcgrory. In a column pulsating with suspicion and doubt she tells us thai you can t really believe that Reagan is going to turn his Back on the contras because to do so would require a religious conver Sion something miss Mcgrory would not think Reagan capable of. Ing away of the Contra Force such that when at the end of september negotiations break Down we will see a Nicara Gua As Strong As it now is but a Contra Force suffering immediate and critical at Rophy. A careful Reading of the peace plan Asil is officially labelled suggests a hypothesis of startling implications. Here is a peace plan that Calls for immediate suspension of All military Aid to the contending parties none from us she says As � Many democrats Are � cd a none Iram us Tino it Kerr lies to the sandinista. If the i a column fear and loathing of Reagan Elliott Abrans George Schuliz Adolfo Calero Ollie North and the contras she resists from criticizing Only the sandinista he warns her fellow liberals that they bad better watch out. Bui democratic congressmen critically situated Are deeply involved in the cease fire plan conspicuously Jim Wright. Hie House speaker. At the other end of the political spectrum members of the Republican right Are hostile. They Jack Kemp most conspicuously among them View the cease fire As having one predictable effect the Wilt peace plan were Frozen at this Point inc Manifest beneficiaries would be the sandinista who Sil on a six year accumulation of soviet military ordnance. If the soviet Union did t Send another pistol to Nicaragua for 60 weeks let alone 60 Days the military resources of the sandinista would hardly be found wanting. By contrast the contras rely on the United slates almost week by week. And the peace plan goes further. 11 stipulates that negotiations will then proceed on reduction in standing armies in the Region withdrawal of foreign Mili tary personnel to the Point of making Nicaragua a non military threat to its neighbors. In order for the sandinista to comply with that objective they would need to begin a military striptease on the scale of what Macarthur did to the Japa Nese in 1945. But Hal is hardly All. The peace plan specifies that civil rights and liberties will be  a terrific idea but on a Par Willii asking Daniel Ortega to grow a sixth Finger. Now what the Mcgrory ies fear As we All know is that toward the end of sep tember Ronald Reagan will raise his hands and say to the Public look we tried did t we and in did t work. So let s face the awful necessity of prosecuting the civil War in  of Freedom and  herewith a prediction followed by a wild but serious hypothesis. To suppose Hal the sandinista Are voluntarily going to abandon their Politi Cal Dogma which Calls for totalitarian Rule of Nicaragua and aggressive exer Lions against neighbouring democracies is an insult to the sincerity of their commitment to marxism leninism. The peace plan is guaranteed to fail to the extent thai it relies on internal Reform by the sandinista. Well then ask the ques Tion if they Are not disposed to Reform voluntarily what Are the pressures that might Force them to Reform it is unlikely that these pressures Are caused by the emaciated Contra whose Potency fluctuates with the mood of rep. Edward Boland of Massachusetts. And in is unlikely that the sandinista Wilt abjure their revolution because they fear Hal the . Congress is developing a hostility toward sandinista lol Allaria ism comparable say to the hostility Congress feels for South Africa. So what is it thai causes the Reagan administration to affect to believe in their peace plan the one possibility Worth pondering is Hal we have achieved a genuine Trade off with the soviet Union. Thai Scurei . Negotiations with soviet officials have Laid in on the line gel out of Nicaragua or else the half dozen things you wish to discus with us ranging from the inf treaty to the abm treaty loan increase in Trade Are going to freeze in their Iracks. Is it conceivable Well Ai Leib Niz the philosopher said in effect any thing Hal has been conceived is conceivable. C Urett Virsil roil sym Eft