European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 24, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 columns Tom Wicker the stars and stripes saturday october 24, 1987 Black monday another body blow to Reagan with the Slock Market still subject to roller coaster plunges and revivals the economic consequences of Black monday Are rial yet Clear and analyst seem divided even on the question whether a recession now Imp ends. Politically however a few suggestions can be cautiously ventured. Most obviously the Market collapse i another body blow to he Reagan administration already battered by the Iran con Ira hearings failure of the Bork nomination questions and fears about War in the persian Gulf and the growing realization that Reagan is an amiable lame Duck detached uninformed and minimally competent. Whether or not it s fair the administration in Power necessarily has to absorb the blame for economic downturns and that blame usually has extended to the president s party. In this Case the Federal budget deficit is widely consid ered one of the causes of the Market de Bacle although that s not Clear either. No matter what indictment of Congress he shouts to reporters Over the noise of helicopter engines Reagan Andich republicans with their Tow taxes and their costly defense policies were the prime creators of the deficit. The democrats moreover have Bee More aggressive in attacking the deficit. Until the Market forced him to offer a Olive Branch to Congress Reagan had confined himself to veto threats and his party colleagues in the House had re fused even to participate in hearings on new taxes to lower inc deficit. For All these reasons and because he Public traditionally has looked on the democrats with More favor in times of economic hardship the republicans Are Likely to be the prime political victims of a fright ening Market. On the other hand experts already Are saying that if 1987 s Black monday has lesser consequences than i929 s Black Friday a major reason will be the protections Eila wished since then social Secu Rity for example unemployment compensation Federal Deposit insurance securities Exchange regulation and the like. All those arc products of the new Deal Era the democratic party and the liberalism that so Many americans have Anthony Lewis taken to denouncing in the Yean of Bull markets and Rosy optimism. The Market collapse hardly Willie establish new Deal liberalism but particularly for younger americans i might teach them some respect for the Patt and in lessons and some caution about the dangers As Well As the beauties of the recently lionized free ifs even a marginal gain in democratic respectability probably would be reflected at the polls. If these conclusions prove warranted the biggest political loser undoubtedly would be vice president George Bush the most closely tied of the Republican candidates to the Reagan . Bob Dole and rep. Jack Kemp for example already Are taking Small Steps away from reaganomics As they try to avoid the Market fallout. To the extent that it hits the administration he Bas served so loyally. Bush cannot escape that fallout and it could be disastrous to a candidacy that appears Strong on paper and in the polls but that Many consider vulnerable m s More speculative but still plausible to suggest that among the democratic presidential candidates the Post Black monday political world May be most favourable to sen. Paul Simon of Illinois. That s because he has pictured himself Ashe most traditional Liberal Democrat with no prefixes or suffixes in the race and his congressional record shows him to have been strongly opposed to the Reagan economic policies. Its possible however that improve democratic chances in the presidential election will bring renewed pressures Torun on Cov. Mano Cuomo of new York and sen. Bill Bradley of new Jersey. It May be True As Richard Nixon recently told a British newspaper that if the Economy turns Down a jackass could be elected on the democratic themselves Are More Likely to believe that the better the Chance themore they need to find the candidate Best Able to capitalize on Market collapse however ought to signal go slow to congressional democrats in their dangerous urge to raise lanes to reduce the Reagan Only might thai prove the wrong " i Tolp you Pont look Powns 41 987 economic Medicine to fend off or Cope besides if taxes have to be raised the with a recession but if voters Are facing leadership ought to be provided and the leaner times they will not be Happy with political onus taken by the president whoa party that causes them to hand Over primarily caused the problem More to the Tan collector. Mine fan a i i the Era of the song and dance Man is Over the noise you heard was not just the crash of the Market. It was the crumbling of Public support for Ronald Reagan. In a moment of frightening crisis the president ofic United slates was treated As essentially irrelevant. The financial experts and politicians who appeared on television people of both parties showed no cd Pocta lion of leadership from Reagan. It was As if they were embarrassed o mention his name. The reason for the disregard is no great no one in this ,1, not even those who Admire Reagan As a person thinks he has any sense of economic reality. Put ii another Way it is fun to live in a tinsel world with & song and dance Man As Long As reality does not intrude. But when it does the wave and the Grin do no count for much. The Ace of Reagan is Over now no matter what happens to the Slock Market. People Are not going to forget monday oct. 19. They Are not going to forget inc feeling that things were spinning out of control and that they could have no Confidence in this president grasp of the situation. And it was not just the one Day. For some Tim americans have had an uneasiness about the slate of the country an inchoate fear that lurked in their thoughts when they were interviewed in depth in Atli Luminal surveys. The uneasiness was there despite Allic positive economic indicators. They suspected that they were living in an economic fantasy that is my guess. They were being told again and again that they and their country could have some thing for nothing wealth without paying for it. An they did not really believe it. The Charm of Ronald Reagan fronted for the Snake Oil salesmen of the new right. They invented reaganomics the notion that inc government could Cut taxes drastically increase defense spending enormously and then spend is Way out of the deficit they preached that the Market could solve All problems that govern ment regulation must go. The president was the perfect front Man because he believed it. He believes that he can think a thing True and twill be Jim Wright the speaker of the House said in a breakfast meeting with reporter last has a capacity of psych ing himself up into a Frame of mind in which be can utterly reject factual data i they do not conform to his preconceived notion. He is ignorant of the facts of which a president should be aware and wilfully a Good Many americans will no doubt continue Loreel affection for the president even As they recognize his distance from reality. But 1 do not think he can recover he political hold he had on this country for to Long. The essence of presidential Power is Public Confidence and there can be no Confidence in a president perceived As irrelevant. Some will feel sorry for an aging politician who has lost his grip. But what Reagan has done 0 the United states seems to me to exclude sympathy. Here was a president with tremendous political sup port one who had Congress jumping to big tune for four years and More. Yet when it came to the economic issues crucial to his country what did he do with that Power nothing. He squandered the talked about reducing the budget deficit but in fact ran up the biggest deficit in history More i total than All the presidents before him. He preached oni thing and did another former Secretary of the Treasury William �. Simon a conservative Republican said the other Day. He did nothing either about the Trade deficit. He boasted about a Prosperity that was in fact maintained by foreign Money 1150 billion a year buying up and securities. Everyone knows that cannot go on and what happens when it stops Reagan s Idle Ness has made More Likely a protectionism that will Breed economic disaster for All As it did in the 1930 a the great communicator does not even communicate anymore. He has not held a press conference i seven months. To Deal with the Market crash he should a few soothing paragraphs Over the Roar of helicopter. Someone has to take the Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole said that after the crash and he was probably not being ironic. The Public will certainly feel that Way from now on. The prize of the presidency awaits a candidate of either party who can persuade the voters that he will confront economic reality who can renew Public Faith in Tow of Tumi
