European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 5, 1987, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes saturday december 5,1987 Tom Wicker democratic car Pool needs to get into gear another to hum debate has come and gone proving Little but thai Tom a Brokaw the Abc news Anchor after facing in a single week Mikhail Gorbachev and All 12 Republican and democratic presidential candidates May have peaked too soon. What pm he do for an encore the group gabble Over which Brokaw gamely pre sided took place As senior democratic leaders frustrated by inc inability of their party s half dozen con tenders o make much impression on the Public were reported to be seeking an alternative. The prospects Tor that arc not Rosy but these gurus can hardly be blamed for their frustration. All the democratic six still were running behind undecided 42 percent or respondents in me latest new York times lbs news poll. Jesse Jackson still led the live candidates at 26 percent with Alt the rest trailing though few believe that Jackson can Rise much beyond that level of support. None of the contenders has yet made the approach the proposal or the self presentation that might lift him to real distinction in the group Hough sen. Albert Gore has tried. Thus an Buchwald May have been speaking for a lot of americans when he observed that the democratic candidates reminded him of a ear Pool. Even gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts who s probably one of the Democrat Riding in the front seat laughed ruefully the other Day about having just taken part in five debates in six  or was it six debates in five Days either Way these repetitious even produced no a tremor in the poll standings or inc headlines. Nor will the elephantine Abc news debate make much difference in the polls or the Public Atti tude. The words were mostly predictable the music mostly absent. This or that candidate May have improved or degraded his position marginally but Little notable was said nor did anything fatal or memorable happen unless a Brokaw draft develops. Nothing in fact will change things appreciably until inc Iowa caucuses bring the mrs real voting results and inc first great surge of press attention on somebody. Nothing that is unless one of the candidates can catch the Public s Eye and fire the Public s imagination in such a Way As to take personal command of the Campaign among the democrats Gore alone has tried to step Ott the Scalen path through Iowa with what Success remains to be seen. First he presented what he called a tougher approach to soviet american relations and National Security issues than his rivals offered then he accurately but Risily declared Iowa Loo Small a constituency and its democratic activists too narrow in out took to provide a fair test of Llic presidential Candi dates National prospects. In no Small pan of course. Gore downgraded Iowa and curtailed his campaigning in that state because his prospects there were not Good As a  he Banks instead on a Strong showing in the 13 Southern primaries on super tuesday after which a third of the democratic delegates will have been chosen. If thai strategy works and if by that route and in later Prima Ries Gore becomes the party nominee he probably would be a More strongly based National candidate than one whose nomination had resulted primarily from inc momentum mostly press attention of a Victory in Iowa and or new Hampshire. As for an alternative to the democratic car Pool it s still possible that someone Mario Cuomo is the prime suspect might enter several late big state primaries and out poll the established candidates. That would make him a probable Public Choice and front runner in the polls even if he had entered too late to qualify for Many delegates. Aside from the fact hat gov. Cuomo insists he won t do that and that no one else seems Likely to such a Beauty contest Winner still would have to gain inc support of 51 percent of inc delegates at the Allan la convention most of whom would be committed to other candidates. It s nol Clear How or if he could win them but the big Pool of Al urge delegates including elected Public officials might have Littfe Choice but to support inc Best apparent Vole getter. That s a dim Prospect at Best. But again if someone could do it he surely would have a stronger National base for a Genera election Campaign than a nominee who had capitalized mostly on narrow gauge victories among democratic activists in Iowa and or new Hampshire. In Rywk time James Reston europeans hopeful about East West relations London in the Days before he Reagan Gorbachev meeting a reporter from Washington finds a surprisingly hopeful mood in Western Europe about East West relations. It s not just anticipation of the first limited agreement to reduce the superpowers nuclear arse nals. One even hears thoughtful speculation about the beginning of the end of the cold War. Here As in the United states there Are differences Over the elimination of inter mediate and Short Range nuclear weapons doubts about the leadership of the White House and the Kremlin and anxiety about the economic and financial Outlook for 1938. But paradoxically there is also a feeling hat the longer Range trends for the remaining years of the Century an More positive. For example there seems o be More agreement that the danger of War has re ceded that there has been a decline in the ideological rhetoric of Washington and Moscow that limited nuclear arms reduction is proceeding despite regional conflicts in Afghanistan Central America and the persian Gulf and that consultation among the major nations has improved. It is True of course thai three other hopeful periods after lie death of Sla Lin in 1953, after the cuban missile crisis of 1962 and during the relaxation of ten Sions Between 1969 and 1972 proved to be fleeting glimpses of a brighter future but even during the dark Days of 1980 to 1985 Moscow and Washington avoided Amajor confrontation. Two events in recent years seem to account for the revival of Hope. The first is the renewal of America s military strength creating a More stable balance of Power and the second is the emergence of Mik Hail s. Gorbachev in Moscow. At the same time nato has held firm despite pressure from Moscow the United states has formed a closer relationship with the new and More flexible leaders in China and despite Trade differences with the new government in Japan. None of this would seem to justify the talk in Europe about the coming of a More stable world order in the last Yean of the Century. There Are serious observers Here and on the continent who see the Forth coming medium Range treaty As a danger Ous trap favouring Moscow s conventional military superiority and others who inter pret Gorbachev s rhetoric As merely a Clever shift in tactics. But both superpowers face Domestic economic problems at Home that require budgetary restraints both arc acting defensively in the face of dangerous confrontations and on the 70th anniversary of its revolution Moscow seems to have con eluded that its efforts to establish a Strate Gic advantage Over America have failed for the time being. Meanwhile America has been forced by recent events to reappraise its economic and financial policies in the Light of the Wall Street crash and the budget and Trade deficits. And the Iran Centra scandals have compelled a change in uie administration s altitudes toward Covert warfare in the world and coven politics on Capitol Hillin Short the present climate at least seen from Here encourages a new period of analysis and change. What started Only a few Short years ago As an ideological conflict Between Washington and the evil soviet Empire and with threats out of Moscow to Bury the capitalist world has shifted to a More Normal clash of National interests. Both superpowers have Learned they cannot do As they wish even in heir own spheres of influence Gorbachev has had to loosen his lies with the communist Stales of Eastern Europe and president Reagan has not been Able to get the consensus he wants for a continued military buildup on Earth and in outer space or even in Central America. In fact it is now fairly Clear that the Western allies will not go along with the cold War attitudes of the first Reagan administration and this explains their approval of the coming talks Between the president and the soviet Leader. In sum the Era of confrontation be tween the superpowers abroad and be tween the political parties Al Home Over the conduct of foreign policy has not worked As any of the contestants hoped. Now in seems Al least to the optimists Here that a new period of consultation and cooperation difficult and protracted May be Al  ton Titi now for the Harp Wrt