European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - January 12, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 1d the stars and stripes tuesday. January 12,198b columns William saf1re All things considered Jack Kemp s the one a recent prediction in this space with the. Wish admittedly father to the thought thai rep. Jack Kemp would upset conventional Wisdom and emerge As inc Republican nominee 1m drawn the expected hoots of derision. George Bush with 117 million rated and his name Well known has it in the bag they say. Should his role in the arms far hostages Ransom decision cause widening doubts about he vice president s judgment then Boh Dole of Kansas will be the one to demolish him in die first test in neighbouring Iowa. Maybe. Hut Lime and Chance Happy nth 1o us All. In the pcs Moines debate the diner night. Bush angrily made Clear he would never reveal his ruinous advice id the president thereby ensuring continuing coverage or what he is turning into his cover up. And Boh Dole was curiously ill at Case Wilh his  message aimed Ai the preppy hush background. Of Chr do i oni Laig Koncman Shupack. Pete do i on was the Mast impressive i listed his Challenge to the Rush Dole sponsorship of subsidized Grain sales to the soviet Union in the Tush euphemism our Cipull enhancement program and his Gutsy assertion that the president was wrong in assuming that Moscow has changed its goal of world Domina Tion. Kemp could not so easily pop the i rc7 because he is Seeling to run As the Only legitimate heir in inc Rea Gan revolution Tuiai amalgamation of did right. New right. Religious right and wrong right that found movement Hood under Ronald Reagan has actually been Leader ins for Over a year As the Iran Gate wounded Reagan has lurched toward detente and shied from budget cuts. Kemp is finding it hard la disagree with hic Raga ism while being careful not to derogate inc popular founder of the feast. But that s i problem not mine. Right wingers Liucc me i i m a libertarian conservative nationalist Hawk hut right Minjir will do have to choose Oft of inc three claim Abl Republican candidates Bush. Dole Kemp who Best represents our views on economic the Bush Dole policy is traditionalist pragmatism it will defend the lower lax Rales Al first then Cave in to Cut the deficit Withful slowing spend ing by raising sin lanes then rates. The Kemp Supply Side commitment to Cut Lau s to stimulate growth is sincere he s done it before with Kemp Roluti. He d do i again As president. Our deficit problem Loda has not come from the Revenue Side which has risen but from spending which has risen faster. On foreign economic policy. Dole says he does t know much about the Dollar Bush says he s against pegging in but i think he would go with Hie advice of Treasury Secretary Baker who is now feeling Hii Way toward a modification of Jack Kemp s Plint to attach currency prices to a Basket of commit lilies the goal is lower Long term interest rates and the one who under stands this Best k Kemp. On Corina asian everybody s for it Dole has person ally suffered most. In terms of spending on social Wel fare reordering budget priorities there is no telling which candidate would spend most. Kemp would most Likely resist defense cuts hut would Back door spend by jiving incentives on rebuilding inner civics. On social issues abortion school prayer gun control All three candidates toe the religious right line but i think Kemp goes Loo far to Butler up Hal constituency fortunately a president cannot do much More than cohort in most of these matters. On foreign policy we see the biggest difference. The Bush Dob View is Laic Rob Danisl. Detente driven in dined to accommodate. The Bush arms for to slags advice at the Lime of his Public statement to Chr contrary is disturbing. Of the three Kemp would be likeliest to preserve Star wan testing and to put canc Kirkpatrick at the head of stale. Regarding the Middle East Bush now says his main reservation about sending arms to Iran was doing it through inc israeli Dole is better on strengthening Israel Kemp Best. On character George Bush is nobody s wimp and bib dolt has in recent years triumphed Over his bitter Ness but Jack Kemp strike me us inc most trustworthy in a crisis. He u a Man logo to the Well with a Man comfortable in his own skin. The conservative movement has already moved on the gop s nominee will have to grape for a new group ing accepting certain losses while reaching for new Gams. Who would be Best at that it s no for me to Burden anybody with an endorse ment now or later but before we Swallow inc conventional scenario let s consider Kemp. A a Yore t George will warmth is now necessary political temperature since the 1950s, when the con scr alive movement coalesced out of Many exasperation conservatism has been on a Long March transforming itself from an ideology of protest to a philosophy of governance. Another Small step in Hal direction is sen. Chrin Hatch s decision to act on the fact that Ozzie and Harriet Are As gone As ail fins. Hatch represents the most Sci Tanile stale Utah voted 78 percent Tor Reagan in 1980,68 percent in 1914. His is High octane conservatism thus it is a Large Straw in a Strong wind that he has introduced a plan Tor enlarged Federal involvement in the provision of child care. His proposal does have a conservative cast. The in Crul role would be primarily As expediter removing some la and in. Sii Ranee obstacles to private provision and stimulating local initiative and diversity. 11 stresses that child care is Nec Essary to enable Many people More Ilton ii million families arc maintained by single paints to work rather than re i Tiv welfare Lull inc most significant aspect of Hatch s proposal is Hal in rep resents a conservative s coming to Terras with some important social and Polit ical facts. The baby Boom generation has had scads of babies and has gone to work in record numb Vry women Boomers have been continuing a postwar trend. Be tween 1950 and 1981, the participation of mothers in inc labor Force tripled. Be tween 1970 and 1981, 40 percent of the increase of women in inc labor Force were women with children Many of them motivated by inc desire to protect their families from that decade s plague inflation. Today necessity drives two thirds of working women the Uvo thirds who arc single widowed divorced separated or have husbands earning less than  a year. More than 33 million children under age 17 More than nine million of them under age six have working parents. By 2000, women will comprise 17 percent of inc labor Force. Between now and then women will constitute 60 percent of new entrants into the labor Force. Says Hatch while i personally believe Hal children Benefit much More by having full time parents 1 realize that 11 is Wishful thinking to expect a significant return too Zic and Harriet styled  politics too is changing and in related ways. Horace Dusty a political analyst argues that Young adults today unlike those of other recent generations have no join Mories of heroic polities particularly of successful larger than life presidents. Today s Young Cadulli see politics not As an Arena of apocalyptic con Cerns but As an Agenda of local often family exigencies education Long term care for elderly parents Day care for children. Rep Patricia Schroeder. D Colo. Calls such Issue warm  warmth is now the necessary political temperature. Feelings Are for talking about these Days. Busby notes the ten Dency of today s presidential candidates o talk ii oui their personal hardships and sufferings Dole on his War wounds Bush on the death of u child Gephardt on a son s cancer Dukakis on his wife s episode of nig dependency. This tendency contrasts markedly with the veil of reticence and stoicism thai cloaked for s infirmities As a paraplegic and Kennedy s chronic Back pain from a War injury. Candidates have de elected the electorate s desire for feeling and sensitive leaders Joseph Biden says that alarm Bells rang in the Heads of senators when Robert sort ailed Why he wanted to be on tic supreme coun said it would be an intellectual  this suggested to senators a sensitivity deficiency warm fuzz is Are big and local poli tics. For rumple 9 san Francisco Law requires and a los Angeles proposal would encourage downtown developers to include child care space in new build Ings child care May be becoming a quasi Emit Emcil for the Middle class. This is a natural consequence of the fad that for both men and women first marriages Are occurring later than Ever. Many people Are becoming parents in their 30s, when they Are Well Inlo careers they Are reluctant to interrupt. Nationally the politics of warm fuzzier can help republicans. Democrats already have a compassion surfeit. Blacks especially regard republicans As having hearts of Coal. Only 17 percent of Blacks think republicans care about their problems. Bui Only 41 percent of Blacks now classify themselves As Strong democrats Down from 55 percent in 1984. Eighteen percent of Blacks aged 18 dul god