European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 21, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the St trs and stripes Tom Wicker demo brokers May Settle on Gephardt Gore the Iowa caucuses and the new Hampshire primary have mercifully passed away mini events let us manfully refrain from calling them pseudo events that May have made in somewhat More Likely that the democrats will enliven things with a brokered convention Ai Atlanta Cit summer. Brokered that is. Among the survivors of the seven who blazed the Trail across Iowa and new Hampshire newcomers will not be Welcome. Based on no polls no focus groups no professional counsel no Wisdom from party elders whoever they Arcand no Advance look at to commercials to come Here s a horseback guess As to what might happen gov. Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts emerged from the new Hampshire primary credited by Media and political seers with a Strong first place albeit in a neighbor slate. Never mind that it has a grand total of four electoral Voles that almost always go Republican and that he won less than 50.000 votes just Over a third of the total. His Victory together with his ample Treasury should Sec him nicely through South Dakota Minnesota and into super tuesday on March 8. When 20 states 14 of them in the South but including his own Massachusetts choose their delegates hut it remains to be seen How Well a new England Liberal with an ethnic name can do below Mason s and Dixon s line. Kip. Richard Gephardt with a win and a place Back to bail in Lown and new Hampshire also gained something of a lift into super tuesday. He should do reasonably Well owing nol least to his Border stale origins and perhaps More to his reputation As a quasi Prokic zionist in All those Southern Stales with their endangered Tami la workers. Money to compel. The experts say will be his problem. Josie Jackson having shown once again that he can run respectably in a state with few Blacks should make hit most powerful Impact in the South on super tues Day nol Only Southern Blacks but not a few dispose Sid while southerners Farmers who be lost their farms and workers who be lost their jobs might Well respond to him. With no genuine democratic conservative in inc race moreover numerous White demo craps might Cross into Republican primaries in the states where that s permitted thus leaving Black voters and Jackson relatively More powerful in democratic primaries. Sen Albert Gore of Tennessee in what is so far the most risky and interesting strategic decision of the Campaign conceded Iowa and new Hampshire and has reserved his Cash and much of his presence for Bozo ref Filesi auditions for  h0ihhew5 item super tuesday. Having tried to tailor his stand on defense and other issues 10 the tastes of the South he s gambling on a big Harvest of super tuesday delegates. If he succeeds hell have a broader base for a National Campaign than that provided by Iowa and new Hamp Shire at the completion of business on March a 40 per cent of the democratic delegates will have been chosen. Dut if All four of the above or perhaps even three come close to their potential that Doy the result might be that none would have More Ihnn 20 percent or so of inc party total. To dec to to percent after super tuesday one of Ihm would have to win about Halfine remaining 60 percent of unc Hosen delegates. That s not impossible but with three or four Strong candidates running and no further regional advantage to anyone it could mean no candidate would have o majority when the Gavel Falls in  would set the brokers to work. Who would they be without a doubt the three or four remaining can. I Dales particularly since party reforms mean that delegates these Days Ore picked by candidates to be and remain Loyal to them. What would they broker the nomination among themselves the Way things go these Days probably not in a smoke filled room bul in on air conditioned television studio. In another country at a later Dale Jesse Jackson might be on the ticket that emerged. That s unlikely in this country at this time Ami Jackson is too smart and too ambitious to insist on it. He and the other brokers it says in my Crystal Ball might Well Settle on a ticket of Gephardt and Gore two youth Ful Border slate members of the congressional party who stand nearest among inc democratic candidates to the political Center. Barry Schweid . Keeping Eye on nato s wants and needs Secretary of state George Shults will be in a hurry to pack for the Middle East after two Days of talks in Moscow nest week but he will go out of his Way to Stop in Brussels to Brief the nato Alliance. Then hell jump aboard his air Force jul and Rush Home having about 24 hours to shift gears pack fresh laundry and head for the Middle East to push a plan fur Arab israeli negotiations that neither Side is excited about. Shultz will pause patiently at nato Headquarters on tuesday to give the allies a blow by blow account of his talks with general Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev and foreign minister Riluar Shevardnadze. He considers these briefings critical to he cohesion of the Western european Alliance. It s also Shutlz Way of making sure Moscow knows that the United Stales is on guard against any attempt to Divide the allies. The noun Atlantic treaty organization will get a bigger and More publicized boost on March 2. President Reagan will hold a Summit meeting with the 15 nato West european and Canadian leaders. The aim is to reinforce the idea that the trans at Antic Alliance formed after world War ii remains the Cen Ter piece of . Foreign policy. Hundreds of reporters photographers and television cameras will make sure the Point is not lost on Ameri can and Western european audiences. And yet High powered diplomacy and Public relations aside maintaining american Unity with Western Europe in a nuclear nervous Era is not always easy. The dutch and the belgians did not want . Inter mediate Range nuclear weapons on their soil. The Danes opposed having the rockets anywhere in West Ern Europe. Norway and Spain arc self declared nuclear free zones. France with its own nuclear Force docs not take part in various nato deliberations. West Germany in 979 readily accepted inc penning 2 and cruise missiles that now will be with drawn Over three years. Bul significant segments of the West German Electo rate and political spectrum wanted the United Stales to move on 10 negotiations to Cui Back Battlefield nuclear weapons. Nato decided in 1981 to scrap 1.400 of the oldest nuclear arms in Western Europe. But Many of the american weapons that remain and Are below inc 113 mile intermediate Range will be replaced with newer ones no Alliance allows its forces to defend itself. With weapons from yesteryear assistant Secretary of state Rozanic Ridgway said wednesday. Modern a lion i an ongoing process. We Are not prepared to defend Europe with weapons from the 1890s." Large numbers of the new arms would be deployed in West Germany. She said the West German government supported inc program and was not pushing for negotiations to reduce the current tactical arsenals. There is no move for the removal of the tactical nuclear weapons from Europe the . Official said. Actually the West germans would have preferred giving lop priority to negotiating a reduction in tactical nuclear weapons now mat inc United states and the soviet Union have signed a treaty to scrap 2,700 inter mediate Range rockets. But Shutlz and the is Western foreign ministers resolved at a nato meeting last year in Reykjavik Iceland to place three other items on the top of the Agenda a strategic nuclear weapons cutback a ban on chemical weapons and eliminating the Warsaw pact s Edge in ground forces. Now that the West germans have backed off the Reagan administration can concentrate on still another problem the future of . Bases in Western Europe. While prime minister Andreas Papandreou has dropped All discussion of pulling Greece out of nato he Hai not withdrawn his threats to close . Military bases on greek soil. Portuguese prime minister Anibal Cavaco Silva has threatened to scrap trealy that allows american use of a base in the azores islands. And inc United slate is still looking for a Home for the 72 f-16 fighter bombers Spain is ordering out of the Tome Jon base near Madrid. Editor s note by san Wilid in met of it a Al lib Dolp not the opinions expressed in the columns and Rar Tooru on his Bilge represent ibo of inc aut Urt id in in no a to be considered As representing he Lewi of the stars and stripes or Ibe United Stiles government