European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 12, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns George will conservative Era appears coming to a close George Mcgovern Lite Barry Goldwater before him. May noon savor a Victory especially Sweet for being Long delayed. The conservative Era such As ii was is coming to an emphatic dose. Democrats arc closer to cons Roui than is yet apparent and complacent republicans arc i unconscious As oysters regarding the Shaki Ness of their hold on the White Rouse. A second 16-year, four election process May be coming to consummation in 1980, is years after go water captured the re publican apparatus. Ranald Reagan Cap lured the presidency. In 1988. 16 Yean after the  of the demo cratic party the presidency May be won by the severe Liberal governor of the Only slate Mcgovey canned. The Southern primary intended Loen Hance conservative tendencies in the democratic party has rewarded the least conservative candidates Mike Dukakis and Jesse Jackson. But before republicans re Joice they should recon Noilar that territory frequently ignored by them in the Reagan Cia reality. George Bush s super tuesday Success coincided with the publication of poll data that should seem ominous to any Republican not utterly sedated by the hubris that his come with Reagan s victories. Consider for example the Field poll in California. A stale with 17 percent of the electoral votes needed to win in november a stale thai has voted Republican in five straight elections and eight of the last nine. In november the Field results were hush 49, Dukakis 36, undecided 15. Last week s results were Dukakis 52, Bush 4undecided 5. Even Dick Gephardt has surged past Bush. November Bush 49, Gephardt 33, undecided 18. Now Gephardt 46, Bush 41, undecided 13. If Dukakis and Gephardt Are  what docs that make Bush a Dwarf Etc Dukakis Field result is a 12-Point turnaround front 13 behind to nine ahead. And the undecided vote is interestingly Small. Bush has been for years a nationally known commodity. Dukakis is still barely known nationally. Before the political season moves West political news moving West Dies in the Mojave desert. California arc not Yel paying William Safire attention to Dukakis or any other new face. So the Field result reflects a sub Stantial anybody bul Bush sentiment. Peter Han s polling shows Bush and Dukakis neck and neck nationally. Lou Harris find Bush tied with Gephardt and losing by three Points to Dukakis. A Scripps Howard up in the South shows Bush in a virtual lie with Dukakis. This poll like the Field and Karris polls shows Dole stronger in a general election. Dukakis has not Yel quite won but Gephardt it vulnerable to negative ads ridiculing Hii anti establishment pose and his ideological somersaults and he is strapped for Cash to pay for responses Albert Gore a done Well but with a strategy that depends on Dukakis stumbling. Now the Marathon moves to expensive Northern primaries hospitable to the Well heeled Dukakis Campaign. Eyeball to 6ye0, actually. Gore s Success May Benefit Dukakis and democratic prospects by rating the intellectual Content of the debate and drawing Dukakis rightward. Dukakis who already is beating Bush is becoming a bet Ter campaigner and acquiring stature As victories accelerate de Douf tation. Speaking of intellectual Content inc unbearable lightness of Bush Campaign May be incurable. A Bush aide Promise we re going to heavy up the speeches aide come to talk like their tosses and lord knows there is room for weight. Bush on arms control hit a lick for Pace on potential perils if this country Ever lose us interest in. Fishing we be got real  touring Auschwitz boy they were big on crematoriums weren t they?1 Hii helium filled Campaign has been made possible by his proximity to Reagan and the fact that so Many Early contests have been concentrated where Reagan ii particularly popular. Bush s november vulnerability ii revealed in inc simple arithmetic of Politi Cal subtraction. Starling with Blue Collir ethnics take away All the groups that Reagan carried but Bush cannot. Republican serenity is exceeded. And perhaps explained by Republican Monjet fullness. The last time Republican non incumbent ran Reagan 1980he got just 50.7 percent or the vote. Would Bush running against Dukakis be stronger than Reagan running against discredited Jimmy Carter in 1984, in the Teeth of inc Reagan typhoon do Morrau won 65 percent of All contested elections. Would Dukakis drive away m Mondale did millions who indisposed to vote democratic would a Iii the Republican Mondale invincible in March unelectable in november Over come that disposition the  of the democratic contest it coming just a lad too late for the Good of republicans the strength of inc strongest democratic candidate ii becoming apparent too late id raise in Republican minds the Mailer of Bush s Eccl Billly. So we Are going to test the proposition of he Democrat who said of his party if we can i beat Bush we should pick another country foil Cimfl of Dup analysing primary losers shows what is winning with no dominant or to bring personality on the political scene no Roosevelt or Eisenhower no Nixon or Reagan we should not be asking our selves who is winning so much As what is win Ning to help us see whal direction America is Tak ing let us use the prism of the losers. Paul Simon is a name on nobody s lips. An unabashed Liberal i m not a no any thug he allowed his moribund candidacy to twist in the wind so Aslo enable his Illinois friends to win Delegate scats next week. That s the human element at work they want logo to the convention in july that human Clement is what stifled his Bow lied bid White democratic liberals mindful of How their split Vole enabled Jimmy Carter to slip through in it 1976 Prima Ries United behind m Actuel Dukakis ibis time. Why Dukakis Why not Simon because the Massachusetts governor seemed better to embody managerial liberalism offering the path to today s goal of efficient compassion. The fund raising in places like zip code 10021 Manhattan s East Sid looking to put a Man in zip code 20500 inc White House simply preferred the smooth adaptable Dukakis to Ilie Spiky authentic Simon. Gary hat who understands that the people have decided he will not be president re a nicked the rare to regain respect a for from quixotic quest in the Crucible of a Doican debates the Prophet of Reform comported himself with dignity Ana performed a pow Erful teaching function Wajih no organized labor bloc to lose he was Able to counter the rightward economic nationalism of Richard Gephardt he seemed also to Sharpen the world View of Dukakis and May have moderated the foreign policy of Jackson. Nowhere was the Basic Hart protest message better absorbed than in the candidacy of Albert Core. The 39-year-old tennessean had the wit to shift Bis Basic theme from a specious hawkish Ness to adopt Hart s Call for generational change fundamental  that old wine in a new bottle More than his Border state background undergirded his super tuesday Suc Cess and opened be possibility of a Dukakis Gore tick Al an amalgam perhaps even a synthesis of the previously antithetical Mondale Hart appeals. Thus the democratic regional primary losers Simon Hart Gephardt demonstrate whal is winning. The emergence of the Clicc Laboc Liberal in Dukakis sup ported by the anti corporation us the Rich save the third world leftist rhetoric of Jackson newly buttressed by the reformat Appeal presented by the Quick learning Gore gives impetus to the democratic message of hardheaded Sonyea redness. The biggest Republican loser was Jack hemp. Move ment conservatives the True believing Reagan revolutionaries were ideologically a horsed pal Robertson s defeats Are irrelevant his is a pickup ideology Kemp insists Hal the smashing victories of George Bush reflect the vice president s close identification with Ronald Reagan s policies and do not Herald a shift to Ward moderation and centrism. Characteristically the Buffalo representative is too much inc Optimist. The Center of Gravity of the Republican party has moved inexorably to the left. Bush is pretending he is not a part of that by sounding Itic Tocsin against lax increases even adopting the Kemp proposal to Cut capital gains Dole who thinks an Oil import fee makes Good sense in reducing the deficit is appealing to of hard line right by adapting the Kemp position against the Start treaty. Bush the grimly cheerful moderate who wants 10 be the peace and education president acts the right Winger on taxes Dole the gloomy prag Malisel who wants to balance the budget to fore the roof Falls in ads the right Winker on standing up to the russian. They Are both half right Wing together they do not add up to one whole right Winger because they Are also half moderate. Only Kemp embodied Pristine hard liner Hood in a sighing against the tax and spend types on economic policy and the  on foreign policy. His time will come. 1 am punting out Why he did not get off the ground with republicans this year and will pass that along per Hap the atomic Louism on the right has to do with Faliece Fame ducking is and place in history Nancy it at zip code 10500. Destiny Ain t so Manifest anymore. Bui Don t feel bad about right wingers All we Ever need for rejuvenation is an injection of rejection lit Ion Tom nt15