European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - March 27, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Sunday. March 27, 1988 the stars and stripes Page 9 attack could cripple nato report claims by Chuck Vinci i Washington bump Washington out of position units Uncertain Short term mobilization plans and Low ammunition stocks Are problems trial would cripple nato if the Warsaw 1 acl launched a lightning  Sirick. According to a new report. Nato s problem with its conventional forces is not thai in is universally weak on the contrary some of its forces arc among the most capable in the  wrote Michael Moodie i senior fellow with he Center Tor Strate Gic and International studio a conservative think tank. Rather nato suffers from specific vulnerabilities which if plotted by an adversary could de stroy its ability to mount a coherent  the 45-Page report released in de Cember is the first in a series of papers of a cs1s project designed to provide the framework of a resources strategy far the United slates and its nato allies according to the author. One of nato s glaring weaknesses is improper positioning of uni i to meet a Warsaw fact thrust even Ai the soviets have been pushing Mas Sive amounts of Armor closer o the Central european front Over the pan decade. In peacetime for example. So percent of nato s brigades Are out of their corps sector some stationed More thai fit Miles from their general wartime defense positions Moo die said. If Quick mobilization was required this would severely hamper the defensive strategy called for by nato doctrine because the arriving defend ers would be unfamiliar with the Ter think tank says Alliance vulnerable in some areas rain and would t have time to pre pare their positions he said mobilization itself is another prob Lem because nato planning focuses on a period of 10 to 14 Days to Ger up. Under the More realistic contingencies for 48 hours of unambiguous warning nato s ability to mobilize and prepare a defense is less certain Moodie said. That i especially evident in the Northern army group area Moosic said. In Northam 70 percent of Bel Gian and dutch Active forces those committed to nato s front lines arc in their Home country and National mobilization would be required to bring those units up to full strength before they could be committed to Alliance defense. A Low ammunition level is the third major problem facing nato s conventional defences again particularly in Northam. All Northam forces have of some extent ammunition sustain build problems Moodie said. Brit ish forces have Only 60 percent to 70 percent of the ammunition they need and German stocks Are not much bet  since the Belgium government a decided not to Purchase he Patriot anti aircraft system the Belgium corps on nato s front will fight without effective air defense Moo die said. The net cafe i of these trends in creases he poit ability that nato would be overwhelmed before vital reinforcements could arrive and would be forced to decide very Early in a conflict whether to surrender or escalate to nuclear weapons he said. This political dimension requiring courageous decisions further complicates the Short warning scenario in which Lime emerges As a key nato resource the report said. However a senior nato official twid he is not worried about the nato senior staff in a crisis. It s not the West that s the aggressors Mack f. Mattingly. Nato s assistant Secretary general for defense support said thursday. It s the East. They re the culprits. I m not fearful of what nato org lit  Mattingly said the problems pointed out in the Moodie report Are Noth ing new but he said More emphasis is being placed on the conventional Gap in Light of the recent signing of the treaty on intermediate Range nuclear forces ii the conventional Gap never got the attention that it rightly de served unlit the inf was signed Mattingly said. This problems pointed out in Moodie s report is just common knowledge. We All  Mallin Gly recently chaired a two Day meeting at nato in which All i it nations agreed to the conventional armaments planning system a cooperative program aimed at giving the Alliance a higher yield on its defense expenditures and narrowing the Gap in conventional strength Between the East and West. This will be done through shared development and procurement of conventional weapons based on the military needs within the Alliance. In his report Moodie offered Sev eral suggestions for improving nato s Quick reaction defences. Among them review the procedures through which political decision to mobilize Are made during a crisis. A careful Eye should be turned toward reducing red tape that can hamper Quick exe cution of mobilization plans. Bring nato s crisis manage ment system up to Date to reflect the fact that the West will have consider ably fewer than 10 Days to react to a Warsaw pact action against the Alli Ance. Re Diamine the tru Ciurca and operation of current Headquarters exercises to nuke sure that a proper Range of contingencies Are consid ered. Focus More Headquarters exercises on soviet Northern and Balti Fleet actions around Scandinavia. Current Alliance assumptions about the course of conflict in the norwegian sea Are desperately in need of examination Moodie said. Give priority to meeting the goal to which the allies already have committed of providing 30 Days of key ammunition stocks and deploy ing those stocks Forward As much a possible. Bureau it Tow it rec we Hal Jonm Buthod i of budget picture not too Berk says top no chief master sol. Jimmy d. Hex Pele. A lot of our people Are  by Dayle. Green Kiben Laiter Bureau ram Steiln a West Germany Budge cams May be fell across the Board in areas including Man Power training and people programs but the picture is not As Bleak As it May seem said Safe s lop no "1 Don t intend to paint a Happy face and to say that there s nothing for us to worry about because there is said chief master set. Jimmy d. Hodg pct us afe s senior enlisted adviser obviously when you lose s100 million you re not going to do the same thing this year that we did last  Hedgpeth spoke in a interview Friday of How the loss of that j100 million in Safe is going to Bedspread Over Many different areas. One area in which the entire air Force will see the cuts is enl used manpower. We re going to end up this year with about 30,000 fewer enlisted members in the air Force than we started the year with Hedgpeth said. About 10,000 of those Are probably going to be from Rollback and people just getting out of the air Force and our bring ing in approximately 20,000 less this year than we we re planning to Hedgpeth said he does t expect the present Rollback to greatly reduce the size of the enlisted Forte. " Don t think we re going to see any significant difference Between the percentages that got out on the Rollback program that would have gotten out anyway Hodg Polh said. Not Only have the congressionally mandated budget cuts caused rollbacks and reductions in personnel Bui some units aim have headed for Deac Lvalion. The fools a tac air support so at Simbach a. It Ger Many will lose seven helicopters by the end of March and will cease to exist at the end of the fiscal year. And though the senior enlisted adviser does t fore see a greater pm of units based solely on financial considerations he docs think Safe will have to re think the Way it docs business. There Are going to be some changes in mls Ion  he said. And there May be some Araas that we Lake a very close look Al in deciding whether or nol we can still perform the Mission that we re committed to in Europe without some of those  eventually of life issues that have i a priority will not escape the cuts. We re going to have to gel some new direction with our people programs he said for example mar that s an important people program. Areas of dormitories and housing those re people programs and con Gress did not give us the  training is another area where less expensive More effective methods Are being considered. We re going 10 see is raining but the training thai we see less of is not going id be that critical train ing thai we absolutely must have to take care of our Mission Hedgpeth said. Air Force members in Europe can expect to Sec fewer training conferences and More training done in the local areas hedge Polh said. But through u All Hedgpeth said the members of Safe have kept a stiff upper lip and will continue to do so. Our people arc reasonably satisfied in the air Force. A lot of our people Are Happy in the air Force he said. He realizes thai a Tol of the improvements happen ing in Safe Loday Are n result of Money that was appropriated As Many As five years ago. But he facts certain the present leadership is up to the task of pre serving the future even in the face of an exceedingly tight budget our leadership is going to Lake care of us so thai most of he Young people and most of the enlisted people i think we re going to be in the posh Ion of not noticing How severe some of those cuts really