European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - May 1, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page in the stars and stripes sunday May 1.19bb business news Gnu prediction fails to boost weak . Buck the dullard Dollar turned in another Flat performance on world Money markets in he past week despite promising news from the com Merce department thai Ine . Economy grew at a respectable 2.3 percent in the first Quarter of he year. The Commerce report released tuesday said an increase a consumer spending and he largest surge in business investment in four year com by . Kominicki bind to bolster America s Gross National product the broadest measure of n country s eco nomic performance. The figures failed to influence the Dollar How Ever because the currency Market had Ore dieted Gnu growth in that Range. The Commerce department report was a non event was the Way one trader put ii. The Foix iils 1 saw predicted the exact figure 2.3 percent so it had absolutely no  open ministers meeting the past week agreed to Cut Oil production to less than 15 million barrels a Day news thai Likely will strengthen the British Pound because of the United Ken dam s Lalus As an Oil producer traders said. One noted that the Dollar eventually should Benefit from lower Oil production since most Oil purchases arc paid for in dollars. However one banker noted you can t Al ways Trust open. They say they be reached an agreement and then half of their members Don t follow it. I think the Oil companies arc safer sources. They have very Clear projections on when Oil will go Over say $25 a barrel. Based on the available Supply and the Western currency nerds or the producing countries it s nol until the end of the Century so we re talking about very slow gains for the Dollar when it comes tool prices he said. Figures Rutlt Vised Friday showed a Mctier than   in the British Trade deft. One banker said traders in London now predict the Pound will Rise to above 32 in he tint month at so before pulling Back As the year ends. The Dollar should Edge up As Sterling slips they said. Traders in London and Frankfurt is Eccl . Interest Rales to climb on the presidential race is settled although they predicted that the nor Mal Rise in the Dollar that accompanies a Rale hike will fail 10 materialize because of higher Trade deficits which they blamed on the Ameri can ill in for foreign made goods. That consensus aside predictions on inc Dol tar s value Over the Rusl of the year were mined. Traders in Frankfurt predict the Exchange Rale of dollars lowest German Marks at anywhere from 1.5510 1.82 by the end of 19s8. From everything i be seen the Dollar will slay within a narrow trading band of Between ?1?j-70 Marl s la Lou us summer an dearly fall a German trader said. One reason is that any time the Market tries to move it outside that Range the Central Banks step in and catch people Wilh their pants Down. So you be got More and More losers around who just Aren t willing to Lake chances. Thai serves to keep in Dollar dead a sign of that morbid stability for the full trading Day on thursday the Greenback posted a Low of .6663 and a High of 1.668 5 Marks. You be got to turn an enormous amount of volume to make any Money Al thai Rale one Frankfurt trader said. Cafes reports 142% increase in number of shoplifters caught by Charlie Bowden Munich Bureau Munich cafes Europe store detectives and Security teams caught nearly 2,500 customers and employees last year Irving to steal j600,Doo in Merchan Dise a dramatic increase Over the past two years. Since 1985, the number of shoplifters caught steal ing m european exchanges has jumped in percent while the Dollar value of the thefts increased More than 400 percent Laid it. Col Herbert Doyce a career policeman currently working As chief of cafes safely Andis unto operations in Europe. Similar increases occurred with employee theft Boyce said. With employees the numbers caught went up 49 percent since i9s5 and the dollars involved went up 21j percent he said. In raw numbers the percentages equate to 820 shoplifter caught in 198i to nearly i.9bs in i9j7, Jln Paihr value jump from 130,000 to More than 1150.000. Nearly 300 cafes Europe employee were caught stealing in 198s compared to 439 last year with a Dollar value jump from1j1 although a breakdown by sex or age was not Avail Able Security officials Al cafes Headquarters in dal Las provided a profile of the typical shoplifter based on 10,500 apprehensions last year worldwide. Roughly so percent fell into three customer categories family members of Active duty military comprised 46 percent 21 percent were Active duty and 10 percent were family members of retirees. Boyce who assumed inc Job in june 1986, a tributes the increase in incidents to a change in philosophy emphasizing hiring and training store detectives plus the introduction of High tech equipment. Cafes is no longer a soft touch he said. The upward trend in thefts probably will continue this year Boyce predicted then Peak and possibly begin to Trail off thai s the general trend anytime you implement a Security program using Good Diec icon techniques. People will know and there s a certain deterrent value in that knowledge. It dissuade a Tot of people from  worldwide the cafes Security net nabbed 10.500 shoplifters last year up from 7,700 in 19s. The Dollar value increased from around 1250,000 to More than 1600,000 in 1987. Nearly i 500 employees were caught stealing about 11.2 million Worth of Merchan Dise in 19ss, and that increased to More than 2.000 jail year with a value of just Over j 1,s million. While the numbers Are dramatic hey Only reflect a part of the Ion picture Boyce said. The numbers Don t mean a whole lot unless you also know what s happening with sales he said pointing out that retail sales during he same period climbed More than 60 percent. It was t in a Static sales environment it was in an increasing sales environment he said cafes Europe sales last year totalled $1.6 billion from a customer base estimated at 725,000 european exchanges have about z4.000 employees. The figures do not mean that the exchanges Are crawl ing with thieves. This does t mean in any Way that we have a bigger theft problem and in no Way indican Iha theft is on the Rise Boyce said. What has happened is that we have a much better Way now of identifying Dis honest employees and catching shoplifters. We changed the system and it s been fairly Cylc Clive. Boyce died what is known in the retail Industry As inventory variance to support his belief that heft is not on he Csc. Variance is the difference in he value of goods cafes bought and the  sold that cannot be accounted for during it Seoul inventories. The variance in Europe in 19s5 was s6.1 million jumped to i  million in 1986 and then dropped to $7.1 million last year. The percentage has remained Al less than i percent last year dipping to 0.52 percent. This at a time when sales increased by j26b million Boyce said. According to a Trade newsletter published by the National association of retailers nearly so percent of the variance problem can be attributed to internal and external theft. Using those As a Baseline Boyce said the decrease in the variance should be attributable in part to increased Security efforts in Europe. Theoretically the variance should go up in an increasing sales environment he said the average variance in 1987 among retail depart ment stores in the United Stales was 1.87 percent according to the newsletter. Two years ago store directive slots often were left unfilled for months with training poor or non exis tent. Boyce said we had some who had never a Gurfil a shoplifter in two years. We re keeping them filled now and we re keeping Ihm filled with Quality peo european Exchange rip offs employee theft fiscal year 1965 1986 1987 fiscal year 1965 1966 1987 number of incidents 394 393 439 amount stolen 1141,000 $328,000 $-141,000 shoplifting number of incidents 820 1,332 1,988 amount stolen $30.000 $68,000$154,000 pie he said citing one Case where a store detective last year nabbed 114 shoplifters. In another Case a detective visiting a regional office for a training workshop caught a shoplifter while die detective we on her lunch tour. It later turned out that inc person caught was being investigated As part of a scant involving about  Worth of merchandise. Aside from floor waiting store detectives also Are responsible for a variety of other Taij. These can Range from checking on layaway and deferred payment plan records to tracking High value items to enforcing safety requirements said one Veteran store detective. We gel a lot of mining in other people s jobs she said we have 10 know what hey do when icy do it properly before we can spot it when they do it crookedly frequently detectives Range Over Large areas popping up unannounced to make any number of Security checks. It is not uncommon for Dele Clivi to Swap off just to gel a fresh or unfamiliar face into a store the Aid in the High tech Arena the change began Fielding an electronic surveillance least in 1985 hat has More Man paid for itself Boyce said. Set up in common use area based on lip oils the learns in l9s6 uncovered criminal activity valued at $206,000. That equates to 56.63 re turned for every Dollar we spent on it boy Jaid. The learns Cost about $500 a Day to operate Boyce said but in 1986 they struck pay Din on nearly 90 percent of their motions. Nine out of every 10 limn we go out we re going to come Back with he bad Guy he said attributing in to extensive Large analysis. Bui it s nol a Witch Hunt we re working on very sound  that sound information comes through a variety of sources. One hat is proving successful Boyce said is the hoi line that comes Dirac Fly Inlo the Munich office. About 25 percent of the information we get from Calls is Good solid information on criminal activity he said citing the Case of one Call that identified eight individuals and about 126,000 Worth of criminal activity. One or two Calls like that a year and it actually pays for the