European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 11, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 Coli inns the stars and stripes Tom Wicker hispanic vote May be key to the White House if either presidential candidate can carry both California and Texas with their total of 76 electoral votes he will just about have wrapped up the election. If you subtract 76 from the National total of 538, Only 462 electoral Voles would remain from which the loser of both California and Texas would have to find the 270 he would need for a majority and Victory. That would require him to win 58 percent of the 462 remaining electoral votes a tall order indeed for a Candi Date who could carry neither California nor Texas. Thus it s Worth notice that the census Bureau has reported a 34 percent increase in the number of his Panio in the population since the last count in 1980, and it s important politically that the rising hispanic population is concentrated in the three most populous states California new York and Texas and in six of the nine so called  these Are the states with the largest electoral vote totals. Since even a Small margin in the popular vote can swing All of a slate s electoral votes to one ticket or the other the hispanic Are strategically situated to have a major effect on the presidential election particularly in California with 6.6 million hispanics and 47 electoral votes and in Texas with 4.1 million his panics and 29 electoral votes. New York with 36 elec toral votes not Only seems reasonably Strong for the democrats in has fewer hispanics 2,1 million than the others. Despite their strategic location however All too Many hispanics Are not registered to vote. Voter participation tends to be lowest among americans not economically advantaged and with Low education lev Els a description that fils Many hispanics Only 51 percent of ism have finished High school. About half that 34 percent increase in just seven years resulted moreover from immigration so its plausible to As sume thai Many of the immigrants do not speak English Well or at ail making it difficult or impossible in some places for them to Register and hampering their political knowledge everywhere. For the democrats that lends a Sharp Point to Jesse Jackson s demand for a Strong Well financed registration Campaign. And it makes it All the More question Able that the Dukakis Campaign so far has done so Little to organize such a Campaign particularly in Cali fornia a stale the governor badly needs to win. California sources report that Little Effort of any kind is being made to mobilize the most natural Duka Kis supporters in the stale Black and hispanic Vot ers. Jackson has not been asked to help by the demo cratic nominee. Nor has any Money been spent on a registration Campaign though some democratic Lead George will cars estimate that they need 750.000 new democrats on the books if they Are to win in november. Registration closes 30 Days before election Day so Lime is Short. Bush has no close personal or political connections in California and Early his summer had a highly unfavourable rating there Dukakis then was ahead by 17 Points in the Field poll. But a Peter Hart poll and one taken for Kab to of los Angeles recently showed a close statewide Rice and a los Angl is times poll of conservative Orange county showed Bush taking the huge Lead he needs there to have a Good Chance statewide. Gush s gain resulted partially but not entirely from a big publicity Bounce from the Republican Conven Tion. California sources say his aggressive campaigning has helped him too he has even got to the left of Dukakis on environmental issues by appearing opposed to offshore Oil drilling and by his criticism of Boston Harbor pollution. Meanwhile the Dukakis Campaign still is being run out of Boston at sacrifice of local enthusiasm and the nominee has not yet capitalized on the peace Issue always effective in Cali fornia. .-,., in Texas in was Bush who took a big Early Lead. But Texas political buffs report that bin Lson s selection As Dukakis s running male Cut sharply into the Bush lend. They think the result is by no Means certain and expect a close race in which bin Lson s Texas political exper Tise should help Avert some of the problems plaguing the California Campaign. But Dukakis needs by n Texas and California. Their Large hispanic populations could be decisive if his Campaign can motivate and mobilize them with some thing More than his and Belsen s fluent Spanish. Pres Denh a debates serve no particular purpose the raw excitements of summer arc yielding o the yet rawer ones of autumn As the presidential Campaign careens rickety split and right on schedule into a familiar Cui do Sac a debate of sorts about debates of sorts. Is this trip Nec Essary it is inevitable. It is not Benefi  will be Only two Loo Many de Bates this year. That is there will be Only two As George Bush insisted rather than the four that Michael Dukakis hunkered for. By his hankering he sent a subliminal message watch me 1 am the Oak land athletics of debaters. Bush following the Rule that you should hang a lantern on your problem rather than iry to hide it has been Happy to play the hapless fellow the Atlanta braves of debaters. His Campaign has speculated in would be Best for him if he debates occurred during he olympics and world series so they would not have the nation s undivided attention. And. The last one should occur Well before election Day so Bush will have time to recover from any rhetorical pratfalls any self inflicted Pearl Harbor. So now he stands to look surprisingly Good if even a few of his sentences parse by no Means a certainty. This Republic prospered from the presidency of Washington through that of Eisenhower without presidential debates and there was mercifully a 16-year Hia Tus Between the first set 1960 and the second. So Why aside from the fact that television exists do we have debates in a fascinating volume of essays presidential debates 19ss and beyond the editor Joel l. Swerdlow says that neither in democratic theory nor in practice were debates Between Candi dates considered important until recently. He Solcs that debates were defined As aspects of legislative deliberations not As instruments of mass persuasion or elec toral campaigning. The Lincoln Douglas debates in the 1858 senatorial Campaign were the first in an election of National significance and they did not inaugurate an Era of debates. It is said in defense of debates that because they last longer than 30 seconds they at least counter the trend toward trivializing compression in political Dis course in this age of sound  the trend is deplorable. But so Are debates which being incoherently episodic Are part of the problem. Kathleen Hall Jami son a contributor to the Swerdlow volume notes that Vot ers have voted with their television dials emphatically rejecting Long nowadays More than 60 seconds political events. On sept. 22, 1964, they gave a landslide Victory to Peyton place and Petticoat Junction Over a conversation Between Johnson and Coldwater. On nov. 4, 1979, they chose jaws Over Roger Mudd s interview with Ted Kennedy. In i960, viewership declined sharply for the fourth and final Kennedy Nixon debate. Broadcasting says Jami son has brought a steady decrease in the length of political messages. The 30 minute speeches that reached the nation s Molo Rolas in the 1940s were Standard fare by 1952, the year of America s first telecast presidential Campaign. By 1956, the five minute speech and spot were edging out the longer speech. In 1964, the five min Ute speech gave Way to the 60-second spot and then the 30-second  in a wired nation the political imperative is survival of the  debates reflect this. They Are los cd lads of Brevity. Here is a question hurled like a High inside fastball at Mondale s head in the 1984 debate in which the format gave him Iso seconds to answer do you accept the conventional Wisdom that Eastern Europe is a soviet sphere of influence and if you do what could a Mondale administration realistically do to help the people of Eastern Europe to achieve the human rights that were guaranteed to them As a result Ofa Helsinki accords asking the question lakes 15 seconds equal to 10 percent of the Lime allotted loan answer. Because neither Side is Ever sufficiently confident to relish the thrust and Parry of real debates our debates Are inevitably parallel press conferences. They test skills unrelated to the real tasks of governance. Presidential press conferences wisely de emphasized by Reagan Are similarly overrated As useful events debates Are supposed to test a Candi Date s ability to think on his  but debates Are primarily the regurgitation of Market tested paragraphs. Reflexes not thinking Are crucial. Anyway who want a president thinking on his feel the presidency is not a Solo Aci. Successful presi dents surround themselves with specialized talents and act in concert with them. This year s Dobales will be Brack eted by sound and fury the hype be fore and the spin doctors after an will signify the  of yet another idea thai diminishes our politics. Chwu Huggion Poal Wal a Oman