European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 20, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns Michael r. Gordon Bush Dukakis do tap dance on military budget Washington while vice president George Bush and Michael  continually argue Over just which weapon systems to add to the nation s Arsenal there has been Little direct debate Over he cuts in military programs that would be required under their budgetary promises. Dukakis usually talks about making some cuts Buth hardly Ever does. According to advisers in both Camps neither Bush nor Dukakis plans on increasing the Overall level of military spending beyond the Point needed to make up for inflation. And each has promised to support some new weapons. Thus both face inc Prospect of Cut Ting Well Over $150 billion from the Reagan administration s five year Mil itary spending plan according to Esti mates expressed in the present Pur chasing Power of the Dollar. The likelihood that both candidates would be forced to make cuts in Mili tary programs is striking because so much of the Campaign debate and commentary has focused on Bush s assertion that he is a More steadfast advocate of a Strong military than his rival and on Dukakis scrambling at tempts to Blunt the Issue. A new study prepared at the request of a Republican member of i he Senate budget committee by the non partisan congressional budget office makes i Clear that the problem of squaring Campaign oratory with budget pressures will be particularly difficult Tor Bush. The study suggests that his Strong advocacy of new strategic nuclear weapons an ambitious program of anti missile research and a Large Navy would Force him to make significant cutbacks in conventional military pro Grams a conclusion supported by other Independent analysts. If or Bush carries out the program he has outlined the cuts will have to come out of our conventional land forces and conventional air forces said Edward l. Shy Meyer a retire general who is a former army chief of staff. Meyer said Bush s Campaign proposals suggested a Lack of understanding of nato s dilemma and have not received sufficient scrutiny he is get Ting a free ride in the Campaign Meyer said. Dukakis military program presents a similar problem. To make Good on his program to beef up nato s conventional defences and develop som new types of strategic weapons Duka Kis would also have to make some difficult Trade offs. Unlike Bush Dukakis has identified some of the cuts that he would make such As forgoing the construction of new aircraft Carrier Battle groups rejecting the proposal for a costly mid fac than missile and culling the budget for research on a system to defend against missiles. Bui the cuts do not appear to go far enough. Converting three of the army s lighter divisions to heavier mechanized divisions As Dukakis has pro posed could Cost As much As $5 billion division in equipment costs some analysts say. But heavy expenditures on conventional forces could limit the Pace a which the United slates proceeds with new Trident submarines and missiles a new land based missile the Purchase of nuclear armed cruise missiles and the  of the b-2 stealth bomber program which is expected to Cost about $60 billion or More. The problem facing both Candi dates stems from the ambitious plans hat inc Reagan administration has Setin motion and recognition by both sides that the budget deficit has effectively ruled out significant increases i military spending. Bush s Basic position is thai the most we will be Able to do is keep Pace with inflation says Dennis Ross senior aide on National Security issues to Bush. And Dukakis talks about the need for stable budgets which leaves unclear whether he would support spend ing that would keep Pace with inflation or would be slightly less than that. Bui if military spending is increased Only enough to keep even with inflation the next president will face two unattractive options according to the unpublished analysis by the congressional budget office which was obtained by the new York times. The options fewer forces or cancel ing weapons or both the report Stales. But what cutbacks Are to be made Bush has generally sidestepped he whole Issue while assailing the proposals that Dukakis has made. So far the Only possible cutback alluded to by the Bush Campaign has been that Bush May have to decide be tween buying additional my missiles or buying the expensive  be. Asked How Bush will come up with the funds to pay for a panoply of new strategic nuclear weapons anti missile research and a Navy of is aircraft car Rier Battle groups without sacrificing other military programs Ross said considerable savings will be made by reforming the procurement process. Bui some Independent experts say that that such changes if put into effect would not save nearly enough Money to avoid making some difficult cutbacks. You can t get Here from Here said Gordon Adams director of the defense budget project a private non profit research group based in Washington. The next administration will inherit a huge shortfall Between the Cost of the currently planned defense pro Grams and the resources available copay the Bill notes Lawrence j. Kerb who served in the Reagan administration until he left in 1985. The next president be notes will have to make difficult Trade offs among major military  the congressional budget office study tilled maintaining and modernizing current forces does not examine either candidate s defense plat form. Rather it documents the budgetary implications of the Penta gon s plans to equip the military wit new weapons. The analysis postulates thai spend ing on researching and Iasi Injo the space based anti missile shield will in crease by 3 percent a year after inflation but assumes that no decision to deploy Star wars defences is made. Deployment would add greatly to Mili tary costs. The analysis assumes in keeping with current Pentagon thinking that the United slates will not develop the new midget Man missile with an Esti mated Price lag of about s40 billion. Bush says he May buy it. Military training it is assumed i maintained at current Levels. The anal Ysis also assumes that current Penta gon Cost estimates Are Correct even though they have sometimes been Towlow Given these assumptions the Analy Sis concludes that the current Penta gon program cannot be carried out unless military spending increases by 3 percent to 4 percent a year from 1990 through 1994 in addition to what is needed to make up for inflation. Since neither candidate now plans to increase the military budget beyond the Cost of inflation the next president appears to have Little alter native to cutting at least si77 billion to 1223 billion from the Pentagon s current five year plan. Those estimates arc expressed in terms of the Dollar s current value. The Pentagon could operate on after inflation spending increases of 1 percent to 2 percent the analysts says if the next administration deferred or Cut some important systems the analysis provides a list of Possi ble cuts to suggest the magnitude of reductions that would be needed to re main within this level of spending. They could involve postponing Ini tial procurement of the b-2 from 1989lo 1993 and buying four instead of six new aircraft carriers by the year 2000. Still other cuts would be needed such As cutting purchases of new ddg-51 guided missile destroyer from six a year to three a year and limiting purchases of the air Force s new advanced tactical fighter plane and its proposed c-17 transport. If All of these cuts were made the military budget would still be higher than the spending Levels projected by Bush and Dukakis since they do nol envision any real increases. In addition the two candidates appear to have ruled out some of the specific cuts in weapons programs identified by the budget office study. Bush for example has stressed his Strong support for the stealth bomber and has said that "15 naval Carrier Lasic forces Are essential for our National be  Dukakis has also recently stressed his support for the stealth bomber. Off Vort tit no Borreta the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the author and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the to ctn of the Stan did Stripe or be United Sites government