European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - September 25, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes columns David s. Broder and Richard Moran debate stakes higher for Dukakis Survey says As sunday s televised presidential debate cars. Three of every four voters in a Washington Post Abc news poll say they have made a firm Choice Between George Bush and Michael s. Dukakis and arc unlikely to shift before election Day on nov. 8. The Republican vice president and the democratic governor of Massachusetts arc running dead even among those who say they cannot imagine themselves changing their minds. Bush s so-Lo-46 percent advantage in the Overall Sample lies wholly among the shaky partisans who arc potential switchers. These swing voters Are obviously the prime Large for both men in sunday encounter in Winslon Salem . Who arc the voters and what do icy have on their minds their single most striking characteristic is that they feel a need to know a lot More about Dukakis before they can make their Choice. Nine out of 10 Shak Dukakis supporters and More than eight out of 10 shaky Bush backers say they need to hear More from the democratic contender. By contrast Only half the shaky Bush backers and two thirds of the shaky Dukakis supporters feel they Lack sufficient information on Bush. A Quarter of each Man s shaky sup porters now have a favourable impression of his opponent. But while Only one sixth of the shaky Dukakis supporters say they Don t know enough about Bush to rate him one third of the shaky Bush backers express a need to know More about Dukakis. These findings lend to underline thai the stakes in sunday s debate while High for both candidates arc far greater for Dukakis than for Bush. The impression Dukakis makes positive or negative could change Many More minds. The Uncertain Volcks Are according to the Post s analysis of inter views with 1,267 Likely voters completed monday literally people in the mid dle. They Are self described moderates of Middle income More Likely to be living in the Middle West or the East than the South or the West. Those shakily Forbush lend to be under 40 those provisionally for Dukakis fall mainly among those Between 40 and 60 relatively few Are of retirement age. They arc people whose tentative judgment of Republican vice presiden Jim Fain september Lial candidate Dan Quayle is highly unfavourable. Half the shaky Bush supporters have some impression of the senator from Indiana and exactly As Many of them Rale him unfavourably As favourably. Only four of 10 shaky Bush supporters have a View of the democratic vice presidential candidate Texas sen.  bul their impression is 3-to-l favourable. Bentsen actually has a higher Favora Billiy score among shaky Bush support ers than Quayle docs 31 to 23 per cent. By contrast shaky Dukakis supporters Are 6-to-l favourable to bunt sen and almost 3-Lo-t unfavourable to july la with Large numbers having no impression. The most important issues to those who Are shakily in the Bush column Are drugs crime maintaining family values and dealing with the budget deficit with the issues of taxes and jobs just a bit behind. The strategic defense initiative is less important to shaky Bush support ers than to his Strong adherents dealing with the deficit and providing Access to College More important. For the shaky Dukakis supporters too drugs and crime Lead the list of is sues with jobs the deficit and family values bunched behind them. But the shaky Dukakis backers attach less Ciampor Tancic to the jobs Issue College Access and child care than do those firmly in his column suggesting that his emphasis on those issues May not be the Best tool for cementing those wavering supporters. Bush s strongest weapon with these swing voters lies in the area of defense and an anticommunist foreign policy. Shaky Dukakis supporters rate Bush Over Dukakis by almost 2 to 1 As better qualified to maintain a Strong defense and split Over which candidate would doa better Job of keeping International communism in Check. On the other hand when it comes to helping the poor and the elderly shaky Bush supporters give a Clear Edge to Dukakis and the Democrat is at least break ing even in that group when it comes to the environmental issues. The sharpest differences Between each Man s most and least committed sup porters Are found in these same areas. While almost eight out of 10 firmly committed Dukakis voters say their Choice would be better to keep the peace barely half of those who might switch to Bush agree. The compassion issues have a similar effect in differentiating weak from Strong Bush supporters and so do doubts about the Republican nominee s ability to Deal with the budget deficit. While eight out of 10 of Bush s firm backers say he would do a better Job of dealing with the deficits Only half of his potential switch ers agree. On a dozen other issues tested inthe poll each Man s shaky partisans rate him better than his opponent bul the difference in their scores suggests other areas of vulnerability in the debate. Bush has Clear advantages among the swing voters on Overall leadership ability keep ing the peace controlling inflation hold ing Down taxes and avoiding a nuclear War. Dukakis has a Clear Edge in this group on protecting social Security curbing unemployment reducing the deficit and improving  swing voters Rale them about even on combating drugs maintaining High standards of ethics in government an improving America s competitive Posi Tion in the world Economy a separate study released thursday by the Gallup organization for the times Mirror publishing company offered a Dif Ferent Way of identifying the swing voters in the election. The sept. 9-14 Survey of2,001 registered voters gave Bush a so to cow percent Lead Over Dukakis but classified 32 percent of the respondents As swing voters who said there is a Good Chance or some Chance of their choosing their  those now giving most of their sup port to Bush the highest proportion of swing voters were  and up cats in that Survey s categorization. The former arc alienated pessimistic and financially pressured voters Many with past allegiance to the demo cratic party but pro military and Skepi Cal of big government and big business. The latter Are Young and optimistic patriotic pro Ronald Reagan but Politi Cally moderate. Of those now predominantly in the Dukakis column those most Likely to switch Are cod and country democrats and new  the firs group is an older economically disadvantaged set of voters with Strong religious and patriotic sentiments the Sec Ond is made up of older Blue Collar voters with loyalties going Back to new Deal Days supportive of social programs but intolerant on social issues and rather hawkish on  lottery ticket won t buy most americans Paradise that rags to riches american dream Horatio did you say hard work clean living perseverance no Way Hora. Not in 1988, Zenith of the Reagan Raj magical Era of mass illusion when we discharge our civic obligations by waving Flag and shouting pledge As Rich gel Richer poor poorer Young Loo broke to leave Home underclass finally escape proof. One captures the dream now Horatio by working As Short order Cook at Mcdonald s and buying a ticket in the state lottery. Welcome to the third world Uncle Sam. The lottery is a Cinderella Mirage sure bul in s a Way of keeping Hope alive. And it helps to lower taxes for the deserving Rich. Over the Tabor Day weekend just under si00 Mil lion was won in three state lotteries the largest in Florida with a record $54-plus million. The result millions of free publicity to swell the take in the 28 lotteries. In i9s7, they pulled in 112.4 billion almost half of in profit. That s Irble the handle in 1982. Voluntary taxation you say Well not exactly. On my television. I get alluring commercials for both the Maryland and District of Columbia lotteries making them sound like Bonanza to fulfil my fondest fanta such advertising preys on the most Gullible those generally least Able to afford the tickets. Psychiatrists say chronic compulsive gambling is on the Rise fostered by governments newest Money making tech Nique the lotteries Are poor wagers. They pay out about half the take As opposed to Over so percent at most Legal casinos and 85 percent at race tracks not that either is a recommended investment. Like most Gam bling state lotteries exact a cruel toll from those who live at the margins. On occasion they literally Lake bread and milk from babies Mouths. It s All part of our new morality of a piece with the growing division Between affluent and poor and the new rigidity of class lines in a nation whose Genius historically has been the offer of Opportunity to break out. A couple of years ago 1 went to a dinner held to Honor Community service and artistic achievement. One of the guest was a recent lottery Winner who promenade the ballroom with sex wife on one Arm and girl Friend on the other. He was generously an equitably sharing the spoils with each and enjoying his turn As celebrity lion of the 15 minutes. Autograph seekers besieged him. He starred As the delighted Mac the knife of thai night s beggar s opera. No one paid much attention to the Honor pcs. Not to Carp. Ronald Reagan Learned his Trade in a Hollywood thai sold dreams at affordable prices in the great depression when they were All anyone except the very Rich could find to smile about. They make up half the ancient formula of bread and circuses. That half is doing just Fine thanks. Though we Aren l yet running out of bread either this last Little economic Binge is almost Over. The Bills Are coming due. Bui mercy of mercies the lotteries will still be there pots of Gold just beyond the Rainbow they finance Many government services removing the Burden from the shoulders of More privileged deserving Folk. While the Ripper lifted the Yoke of oppressive taxation from the prosperous the Stales picked up some of the Slack in education and environmental Protection by retailing Pic dreams at a Dollar apiece. E pluribus he con now la