European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 12, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 Colour riots the stars and stripes Susan Page the winds of change Are blowing Bush s Way Ruif in the number of nth talc who Laid for George Bush s Campaign. The six letter word that raises the greatest fear has not been Quayle but  although Bush May have his problem these Days Wilh running male Dan Quayle his advisers have Long calculated that perhaps the most critical problem the Republican presidential candidacy faced was a fundamental american de sire for change Afler eight years with the White House controlled by one party. But Wilh a calculated strategy handsome Good Luck from continued Good economic news to the Success last week of the space shuttle discovery Mission the vice president and his adviser have managed to finesse the Issue with a Success that has surprised even them. I think that s one of the reasons the vice president is doing fairly Well right now his Campaign manager Lee Atwa tar said in an interview. Thomas Mann a political analyst with the Brooking Institute a Liberal Washington based think tank agreed. For the Lime being. Bush has succeeded he said. Whether it works up until the elec Tion is very much a function of what the democrats  from the beginning Atwater said. Bush faced a Macro disadvantage on the question of change. I Felt like the biggest problem the vice president had in this election was being on the wrong end of the historical Cycle he said. It makes it very Tough. There is a Lime honoured tradition of two four year  indeed since Harry s. Truman was elected four decades ago the United states has not allowed one parly to control the White House for More than eight years. Bui since the Republican Conven Tion in August Bush has picked up the problem like a live grenade and hurled it Back at his attackers. He has portrayed himself As an agent of modest change on issues like the environment and education while painting democratic nominee Michael s. Duka Kis As a proponent of risky Radical change the sort of Guy Likely to under mine the nation s Security and Prosperity if elected. For Many undecided or loosely committed voters. Bush has made the Prospect of change presented by the demo cratic nominee Stem less like an Arnold Sawislak Opportunity to do better than a risk of doing worse. The american character is that Youcan always do belter our View of history is that things Are always going to get bet ten that we can solve every problem Republican strategist David scene  by the Lime you gel to october or november the other question comes in which is the nip Side and thai is Hal the other part of the american character is that we Don l like change that upsets theaople cart unless we re convinced that the apples Are Rolien. All things being equal you la gel some people who say they re for change in june and july but would opt for Stabil Ity in october and  that seems to be precisely what has happened. In May most americans surveyed in a Gallup poll conducted for the times Mirror co. Said Hal they were dissatisfied Wilh the ways things Are going in the country 55 percent to 40 percent. In a follow up poll conducted last month More americans said they were satisfied. 50 percent to 45 percent. On of uie biggest gains came among voters the Survey dubs the "disaffecleds?1 a Cru Cial swing group of older financially pressed voters who supported Reagan but until recently were resisting Bush. That sort of question is what Gallup president Andrew Kohut called a significant predictor of support for Bush a question Hal accurately mirrors the standing of the quasi incumbent. The vice president is supported by Abou three fourths of those who say they Are satisfied with the Way things Are going he is supported by Only one fourth of those who Are dissatisfied. So As the Public mood has brightened Dukakis prospects have dimmed. I think that the Success of the inf inc mediate Range nuclear weapons treaty coupled with a sustained period of positive economic expectations gave people a reason to say the Glass is half full not half empty.," Kohl said. We Haven t heard much about for Mer attorney general Edwin Melesc lately we Haven t Beard about convicted presidential adviser Michael Deaver we Haven t heard about the Iran Contra scandal so much. What we be heard about is peace and  even the successful launch and return of discovery seem to have helped. Poll ing in seven Stales before and after the launch by Market opinion research the Detroit based firm that handles Bush private Campaign surveys found an in crease of Between 2 percent and 8 per cent i the r of people Tai they Felt things were generally going in the right direction in this country. Like previous National elections this race is not Only a contest Between the Republican and democratic nominees but also a National referendum on the incumbent and this incumbent Ron Ald Reagan finally has seen his popularity recover from its Iran Centra Dol Drums. The Bottom line is it s very hard to dislodge a party whose president has nearly 60  approval rating said William Schneider a political analyst with the american Enterprise Institute. It s hard to do that but not impossible he and others cautioned if Dukakis can some hew manage to capitalize on underlying uneasiness Aboul the underpinnings or the country s Prosperity or raise Funda mental double Aboul Bush s competence and judgment both themes Dukakis has been striking. What Dukakis has to do is remind people again what change could be that we can do better democratic pollster Paul Maslin said. He has to do what John Kennedy did in 1960" not trash ing the country s mood of Contentment but promising a brighter future should Dukakis Colum Snicale change and reactivate some of those feel Ings you could easily see a shift Back in the next five weeks Maslin added. Actually Dukakis in recent weeks has added a former Kennedy  Sorenson to his travelling party and begun to strike some of the same the Mesjak used when he campaigned against the incumbent Republican vice president More than a Quarter Century ago. In commercials and on the slump Dukakis i been promising that the Best America is yet to come. That message u a reasonably complicated one though. Bush s message 11 simple and direct. I m not going to let them Lake it away from you he Lold a Campaign audience Friday from the Steps of uie me Dina county Ohio courthouse a Stan Dard line from his stump speech. It i not always entirely Clear who they Are or what it is. But the crowd cheering got the idea. A scenario in which Dukakis wins by single vote -.-. E5s than 0.2 percent and a Sharp contrast to the Electo but Iacre is a catch. Kennedy carried both Supli ral vote near  is a presidential election scenario the Democrat carries every state on the Atlantic Seaboard but loses the new England to of Maine Vermont and new Hampshire plus Virginia and Flor Ida. He carries the Western Bank of the Mississippi River from Minnesota to Louisiana with the exception of Iowa. He wins Illinois on the Eastern Side of the nver and neighbouring Michigan but the Republican wins All the rest of the slates bordering the River on the East plus Indiana and Ohio. In the West the Republican wins everything but Texas new Mexico Nevada and Hawaii. Who wins the election in 1960, when that happened John f. Kennedy carried 22 states to win the presidency with 303 of the 537 electoral votes 56 per cent of the total. Richard Nixon won 26 slates with 219 votes and sen. Harry Byrd of Virginia got All eight electoral votes i a _ to _. Of i i for i Atacama Ann Finif Tom the i960 dam Coralic ticket of Kennedy and Lyn Don Johnson was the original Boston Austin Axis and the inclusion of the Texas senator was regarded As the key to carrying vital Texas As Well As several other Cotton South slates when Massachusetts gov. Michael Dukakis tapped Texas sen. Loyd Belsen As his running mate this year political romantics talked about Boston Austin ii and the Early polls seemed to give credence to the idea that there was still some magic in that formula lion. So what would happen if the 1988 election ended Wilh the same slates in the democratic and Republican columns there have been three Rean portion meals since 1960, and for the Mosi part it has been the states that Nixon carried thai have gained electoral votes. With some adjustments such As awarding the Dis a and All but. Caroli Nas Georgia Louisiana Arkansas and part of Ala Bama get log 52 of the total of 58 electoral votes those slates had then and now. Even if Belsen pulls Texas 29 votes into the democratic column there arc very few observers who believe Dukakis can come out of the South with More than one of the other Southern states Kennedy carried. That difference alone would give the election to Bush. Democratic strategists Are Well aware of uie situation and know the quickest Way to make up for the soul hem Stales Kennedy won in i960 would be to win California. In 47 electoral votes would permit Dukakis to lose the entire South except for Texas and withal of the other Kennedy states still win the election by one vote. Wilh More than 68 million votes cast