European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - October 20, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes Anthony Lewis candidates ignoring grave economic threat has a political Campaign Ever been so divorced from inc realities con fronting this country thai was the ques Tion that came to mind As i watched the second debate Between George Bush and Michael Dukakis. The prime reality that threatens us is economic. Henry Kaufman the Wall sir i l seer summed in up As follows in an article for the new York times mag Azine whoever is sworn in As inc 41st president will have to Deal with economic problems More Complex and More to Toni rally treacherous than any seen since the Lime of Franklin d.  the problems Are no secret. Among i hum arc a huge Federal budget deficit a Trade deficit that remains High despite a failing Dollar an enormous accumulated debt to the rest of the world. To Hose Kaufman added he growing crisis of bankrupt savings and loan associations which May Cost taxpayers s100 billion in bailouts. Vice president Bush was asked a num Ber of questions about How he would move toward a balanced budget. His an Swers added up 10 go on with essentially the policies of the Reagan administration the ones thai have brought us tothe Edge of disaster. A flexible free in the budget would do the trick Bush said. He would never raise lanes. What new weapons systems would he drop to Cut the ballooning defense budget he could not name one in the Pentagon s Long list mentioning Only a military truck added by Congress the separation from reality in those answers is hair raising. Consider just inc question of Pentagon spending. The congressional budget office has just reported that the weapons programs already planned and approved for inc next five years would need a 4 percent annual increase in military spending above inflation. That would add Between s175 billion and $250 billion to a level military Bud get. There is no Chance whatever of thai kind of Rise inc Reagan administration and Congress agreed this year to keep military spending level with in creases Only for inflation. So even to keep within present budget limits it will be necessary to Cut $175 billion to j2 50 billion from the Pentagon in the next five years. That has to mean dropping several new weapons systems. In fact if the National budget deficit is going to be reduced Pentagon spending cannot even stay Ai its present level to is now 6.1 percent of the Gross National product. Henry Kaufman said it should " stabilize at around 4 percent that is a staggering political task reduce the military s share of our econ omy by a third no viewer would have got a hint of such realities from the vice president s easy talk of competitive strategies in the development of multiple new strategic systems. Dukakis said he would not spend Bil Lions and trillions. On Star wan and would not put my missiles on Railroad ears. But he was As Munfor Thorning As Bush when it came to cutting Domestic programs and some will have to be Cut and Clemenis among them. Budget figures seem abstract. But these Are not technical matters to bereft to experts. We Are talking or rather we should be talking about the eco nomic future of the United Stales. The Economy that dominated the postwar world has begun to slip in the Competition of what is now a genuinely International Market. Indeed we seem unable to compete with Japan or the other rising asian countries in High technology products. Our semiconductor Industry has slumped. We do not make  recorders. We Are unprepared for what will be a big Market in a new product High def Nilion television. Our investment is Low so Low that we rely on foreign investors to put Money into american Industry and so they own More and More of it. Our schools the key to economic competitiveness As Well Aslo a civilized culture arc a disgrace. We have heard some of this fro Dukakis in Between his unnecessarily defensive attempts to Deal with attacks on his patriotism and his Liberal View of human issues. But it is hard for a Chal Lenger to warn about an oncoming National crisis. If he docs he will be charged with knocking the country illusion is More comfortable than real Ity. So the voters feel judging by the polls. The deluge can Wail until after Jan. Naw Vork times new born Tab Andrew Rosenthal Dukakis fighting perception of peace Prosperity after three months and iwo debates against vice president George Bush gov. Michael s. Dukakis Challenge remains whal in has been since inc democratic convention in july How to get past two forces thai keep i coping into inc ring on the Side of his rival. One of Bush s allies is familiar and powerful ran Ald Reagan whose popularity is soaring in the Twilight this presidency. But the More serious threat for Dukakis his aides and outside political experts argue comes from a wide spread perception that the Bush Campaign has worked hard to exploit America is prosperous and Bush is therefore the Safe Choice. With Bush s Lead strengthening they say the Massachusetts governor s Campaign must find a Way to change the Lilly of the bout to Dukakis is. Bush nol democrats is. Republican peace and Prosperity. Thai was no easy task before last week s debate i los Angeles. Dukakis showing there made it no easier. A new York times lbs news poll published the morning of he debate showed an increase to 40 per cent from 30 percent in july among voters who fee optimistic about the future. By a sizable margin republicans were considered better economic managers. Sci n raised by the democratic nominee s solid performance in the first contest last month when he was Given the Chance to establish himself As a legitimate contender for the while House and a first shot at painting himself As a moderate nol the  Bush has been Labelling him. Bin As new local and National polls and the near unanimous View of glum democratic office holders suggested Dukakis emerged from the second round still searching for a Way o say what he wants to say according to a lbs news poll 48 percent of voters who watched the debate said Bush performed better Only 25 percent said Dukakis did belter. In an Abc poll the figures were 49 percent to 33 percent in a los Angeles times Survey 47 percent to26 percent. In August and september the Dukakis people were getting out Basic information about Dukakis while Bush was running for president of the United slates Harrison Hickman a democratic pollster said. It s a classic Case of he who determines the Agenda wins the election. The Dukakis people did t put up much of a struggle for the Agenda. In acc crts weeks Dukakis has been sinking Back hard criticizing especially As he did in the  s judgment in choosing sen. Dan Quayle As his running male. Mean indeed some members of his staff Are starting to talk about keeping it positive As they did in the late summer when their candidate took the civic minded stand that campaigns should not be negative. In Many ways however the Issue of negative campaigning has come to dominate the race. Such mudslinging is difficult to break off if Bush continues to attack Dukakis must respond his strategists say no matter what vows about a gentler and More positive Campaign were exchanged and apparently Well received by voters. But such a potential backlash is far from the Only difficulty the Dukakis Campaign faces. Alan Secrell a democratic consultant said that whether he attacks or no Dukakis seems unable to reveal himself to voters he cited Dukakis Deadpan response when hews asked if he would favor the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered. You have to take the Opportunity to a Leaf some thing of yourself Secrell said. The Vole for president is an intimate vote it s personal vote. People invest More in that vote than a Grade in a graduate course and it seems Dukakis is. ,. Auditing this race without understanding that there s As for the debate itself the Slakes had Only uncomfortable question when docs Tough become