European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - November 25, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                The stars and stripes columns Flora Lewis dramatic change appears Likely in Mideast Cairo Egypt practically every Factor in the mid dle fasl conflict has changed recent adding up to a substantial shift in Pic pattern of pressure and forces. Though there is still no breakthrough in sight the whole Complex has to be reassessed. What demands attention Here is the return of Egypt to Active diplomacy it is a Triumph Tor Cairo after the years of Arab quarantine following the Camp David treaty an argument for negotiation not War. To Egypt s credit it is being pursued quietly without extravagant fanfare. That makes it the More effective. High egyptian officials speak of an emerging Arab coalition with Jordan Egypt and the pal Sunc Liber Al Ion organization As Central players in the endless minuet involving Iraq and the Gulf states and to a lesser degree most of the Western arabs. There May be some Wishful thinking but there it much to support the claim. Even Syria increasingly isolated and visibly the loser in us ambition to Lead the Arab world is making minor gestures to ease antagonism with Egypt if not yet to warm relations. In the big picture the most important change improbably soviet policy Moscow still wants to be a part of an settlement and to have an internationally legitimized Middle East presence. But the soviets do now seem interested in a solution rather than in maintaining an epicentre of crisis. There in t any reliable information on what the Yare urging on the syrians these Days. However egyptian authorities have been told that Mik Hail Gorbachev delivered a Stem lecture the last time Yas ser Arafat visited Moscow with a Large pop delegation. One of the palestinians offered the routine rhetoric about fighting the imperialists and their lackeys the Zion  the soviet Leader derided such old fashioned talk stressing the need to address the new challenges con fronting the world and to find political ways out of the old quarrels.1 the palestinian uprising in the occupied West Bank and Gaza has had a Subtle but important Impact onaran As Well As Flo calculations. It was a desperate  Young palestinians to take their cause in their own hands after the Arab Stales made the Iraq Iran War their toe priority at an Amman Summit meeting a year and a half ago. King Hussein of Jordan then Procla Nied Las summer thai his country renounced responsibility for the territories forcing the Plo to come to a definition George  of its position. Tran and Iraq made a cease fire in their eight year War last july even if they Are still Good Way from peace. That Loo underlined the futility of looking to the Battlefield for justification despite dreams of glory. It added to Syria s loss of influence. The Gulf states Cut off their subsidies to Syria and the saudis reduced pay ments. A new confrontation Between Syria and Iraq i building up. Baghdad wants vengeance for what it considers Trai Torous support of Iran by Damascus. But egyptian authorities say they Are convinced i Raeqwon t slide Back into its role As super  enemy of Israel. I has Loo big a Job of reconstruction at Home. The egyptians say Saddam Hussein of Iraq told them he had concluded that All this terrorism Busi Ness is  that May or May not be a new conviction but at least the egyptians could and did argue that there is alot More to be gained by peace than by War. They offer their experience As proof. Meanwhile Lebanon has collapsed in miserable chaos it is an example to everybody about the wages of communal strife exacerbated by calling in outsiders and another failure for Syri Aall these pressures brought Arafat to a carefully calculated move after Long consultations with practically everybody and a crucial meeting with Hussein arranged by president Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. A key innovation at the recent meeting of the pales tins National Council was that decisions were taken by majority Rule ending Arafat s Refuge behind a need for consensus As a pretext for standing still. Extremist veto Power was removed. No official translation of the Plo s Resolution pro claiming a palestinian National state implicitly recognizing Israel and renouncing terrorism has been  is important because ii will show just to pre Cise arc the commitments and whether language Fudg ing games have been used again. But it does suggest a basis for direct negotiation if Israel can emerge from political paralysis and agree to try. Dont hold your breath and Don t expect sudden drama. But with so much motion there May be a Little movement coming Bush presidency began Well before inauguration the poet in the soul of the presi Dent elect must be muttering the world is too much with  perhaps the problem is something Only the ghost of Martin Van Buren understands. But for whatever reason we Are witnessing a remarkable extra constitutional occur rence. George Bush s presidency has begun two months before his inauguration. From a cacti in Florida to a Hall in Algiers the world in the form of Market forces and men of Force is pestering him and he is responding in ways that constitute governing. In Algiers the Palestine National Council the mock parliament of the Plo s make believe stale ginned up a diplomatic missive addressed directly to Bush in Florida Bush to the Relief of Marine life had to haul himself from the churning surf to Calm various financial markets that were responding to several stimuli. I there was and is the intersection of two suspicions. One is the suspicion that Bush by believing that new taxes Are unnecessary is confirming the axiom that optimism usually is the product of intellectual error. The second sensible suspicion Sahat Bush Means what he says about his Adamant opposition Tonew taxes. Bush is not a bit like Charles de Gaulle who with gallic cynicism of a sort not taught at Andover said that politicians never believe what they say so they Are constantly surprised when others believe them. Another cause of commotion in the markets illustrates the ticklish nature of the transition nowadays. A transition is a grand episode deserving a capital to like the reformation and the Renaissance Martin Feldstein the economist is correctly considered close to Bush and was incorrectly suspected of speaking Bush s thoughts when he said in a speech that the Dollar should decline still More. Many people holding Dollar denominated assets promptly decided they would rather hold hoi coils. Thai decision made matters worse for the Dol Iari a the fact that the world is vibrating like a tuning Fork to the actions and non actions of the president elect suggests that the transition or at any rate this one,Tstoolong-.i- this is the first Lime in 132 years that the president elect is a fellow who has been living near the Center of things As vice president. And Back in Van Burtn s Day that mattered Little because govern ment mattered much less and news about it percolated slowly out to an inattentive populace. Nowadays when Large portents Are inferred from Small occurrences associated with the pics Ideal in waiting it would be Well if there wireless wailing. J because Bush is already governing he should have real responsibility. Because he knows the government and the personnel of his party so Well and because his Central Campaign Promise was continuity with the previous administration he is More ready than most presidents elect Are to Settle in. V it says much about the quickened Pace of Modem life and about government s role in the acceleration that until for s second term presidents were not inaugurated until March. And perhaps 10 weeks is about As compressed As a transition can be.  defined an elephant As a mouse built to government specifications understands Trie tendency toward elephantiasis in the transformation of transitions into bureaucracies. A Tran Silion is an apparatus for allowing some of the Winner s political infantry whose adrenalin has not yet ebbed and who Are not going to be rewarded with real Power to wind Down by enjoying the watery satisfaction of writing memoranda that will be unread by the people who will have Power. A transit of also is a process of rounding up people willing to uproot themselves and plunge into the washing Ion real estate Market for the privilege of being underpaid in the service of their country. Such service consists often  badgered by congressional subcommittees which Means by congressional staffs composed of Young people whose knowledge of the world is inversely proportional to their impatience to perfect the  president elect has approximately 5,300 jobs to dispense. By inauguration Day 1931, Only about one fifth of presi Dent Reagan s people Wen firmly in place. Thai was partly because approximately 700 had to be confirmed by the Senate today the lives of the 700 Mustbe combed by congressional staffers in search of deviation ism. The hurdle that nominees must Clear gels higher and higher As we become More fastidious about sin. This Lime senators must ask did you Ever smoke any thing Nasty in the dorm have you circulated Samizdat copies of the writings of Robert Bork cant be too careful so the world will have to wait. We Langton Pom Nurt onus