European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - December 5, 1988, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes John m. Goshko and David b. Ottaway no solution in sight in the Complex Mideast Washington Secretary of state George p. Shultz s controversial derision to bar Palestine liberation organization chairman Yasser Arafat  United states brings to a frustrating end the Reagan administration s arduous search for ways to break the deadlock in the Arab israeli conflict. Since Sulu first launched his Marathon diplomatic Campaign in february to persuade israelis arabs and palestinians to come to the negotiating table events have overrun his carefully constructed peace plan and totally undermined the Basic assumptions it was built upon. Schuliz i Overall foreign policy record is pretty impressive and i think it will be judged in a very kindly Light said Geoffrey Kemp who directed Middle East affairs at the National Security Council during the Early years of the Reagan administration. But the Arab israeli problem has been his water Loo he added. Shultz s denial of a visa for Arafat which stale department officials say was a very personal decision resulting from his Abhorrence or terrorism probably will not have a binding Impact on the incoming bus administration. Rut the decision highlights How difficult it has be come for the United slates to seek 10 mediate Between increasingly polarized and Radical Arab and israeli views about the future of the israeli occupied West Bank and Gaza strip. We re in a process of transition to a different approach to the whole palestinian problem reflected one , Middle East analyst noting How events on the ground have dramatically altered perceptions and demands since unrest broke Oul in the occupied Terri tories last december. All the subtlety and much of the flexibility of the negotiating process have been stripped away by events of the fast  the Shultz plan was the main . Attempt to Cope with the unrest. H called for King Hussein of Jordan to Lead the Arab Side As head of a joint Jordani an palestinian delegation. The goal was to get around israeli. Objections to dealing directly with the Palestine liberation organization and to avoid he creation of an Independent palestinian state by transferring the occupied lands to jordanian control. However despite three grueling missions to the re. Gion by Shutlz his plan never gathered momentum and finally foundered last july 31 when a dubious Hussein bowed Oul As Lead actor and recognized he Plo As chief negotiator for the palestinian cause. That led such other . Allies As Egypt and saudi Arabia to join Jordan in pressing the Plo to take measures that would permit the United states to end in Long refusal la Deal with the organization that includes most palestinian factions under its Broad  Arab leaders hoped Ihal if the Plo could make itself acceptable to Washington the United Arnold Sawislak Stales might press Israel to negotiate directly with the Plo. The results were mixed. The Plo unilaterally declared an Independent palestinian stale at its recent meeting in Algiers a move totally unacceptable to the United states. The Plo also adopted language thai it and its Arab allies contend is an implicit recognition of Israel and a pledge not to use terrorism. But even those . Officials who saw encouraging elements in the Algiers declaration acknowledged that it fell Short of , specifications.-., meanwhile after its recent elections Israel appears headed for a new coalition government More deter mined than Ever not to surrender the occupied Territo Ries. Bur even those israelis who favor a land for peace solution have always made Clear that a Territo rial Compromise must be in association with Jordan and must exclude an Independent palestinian state under Plo leadership. America s Arab friends now find themselves in a dilemma especially Egypt which had been arguing to Plo leaders that they had Only to recognize Israel implicitly and renounce terrorism to elicit a positive response from Washington Egypt is in a very delicate situation said an Egypt Lian Diplomat much More delicate than it was before. The palestinians Are telling us now that Shultz with his initiative was not really interested in reaching a Solu Tion just Irving to contain the Intifada uprising " Kemp said we Are not doing very much to make egyptian president Hosni Mubarak s Job any easier. This will not necessarily change our relation ship. But it is part of a trend. And the failure of moderation la produce any movement on the peace process could drive Egypt in a bad  president elect George Bush and Secretary of state designate James a. Baker Iii May find the Arab israeli. Chasm so wide thai immediate Steps May prove impossible. -.-.   although the 159-Mcmber United notions general Assembly seems Likely to give Arafat his moment in the limelight at a special meeting in Geneva when the cheering subsides the reality will remain Only the United Stales can exert the pressures that would admit the Plo to the peace process. Said one . Mideast analyst engagement in the peace process Means dealing with the Stark reality of a new focus on the Plo. The Choice is Between engagement with the Plo or what is the alternative disengagement. Pal. Bush errors Quay a and Neaf be comp sign we Are hearing plenty about what Democrat Michael Dukakis did wrong in his losing presidential Campaign so just for a change let us consider what mistakes Republican George Bush Ommi led on his Way to the while House.-"-.1. " " Bush s first and demonstrably worst Blunder was the Choice of Dan Quayle for his running mate.  this judgment is not based on whether the 1 Indiana senator will be As bad in the vice presidency As the democrats predicted or As Good As Bush promised. That remains to be seen and Quayle has every right to Start the Job with a clean slate and to get a fair assessment of his works he dots it. V but As Well As anything can be proved in the arcane science of Campaign watch ing it seems certain  was a net minus for the Republican ticket one exit poll had 16 percent of the voters interviewed saying they voted for Duka Kis because of Quayle other measurements had Quayle reducing Bush s. Vote by 6 percent.,". Inasmuch As Bush woo 54 percent to 46 percent Quayle obviously did not realty endanger the Republican Victory but if he reduced the vice president s vote by As Little As i percent it denied the gop  landslide which in presidential contests generally is regarded to be 5 5 percent or More i it May seem to be splitting hairs to make an Issue of 1 percentage Point but Al some Point the size of the vote for the lop of the ticket can have an effect on races lower on the ballot. For example he Republican Senate candidate in Connecticut lost by less than 1 percent. The switch of 2 percent would have elected another Republican senator in Wisconsin and 3 Points would have saved the gop seat in Nevada. It is impossible to say that Quayle s presence Cost the republicans those scats but an argument can be made that 5 or More Points on the Bush margin might have Given him More of the Capitol Hill help he will so sorely need in the next session of Congress. Which brings up the next mistake Bush made in his Campaign. It had to do with whal Winston Churchill derided As making the rubble jump when his Mil itary advisers suggested continuing the saturation bombing of German cities Al ready nearly levelled by Allied raids. Bush and his advisers probably Felt they had to hit Dukakis hard with negative campaigning when the Democrat went Oul to a big Midsummer Lead in the polls and that they were justified in doing so by the ridicule heaped on Bush by speakers at the democratic National.  -.". The cop attack ads obviously helped Bush catch up to Dukakis but when he started pulling ahead the vice president should have started thinking what of Lect the negative approach would have on future dealings with congressional democrats especially the ferocious partisans who Lead the party in the House. It is True thai any politician who climbs to congressional leadership prob ably is professional enough not to hold grudges after a Nasty Campaign but there also is a time honoured axiom of politics that says Don t get mad get  went to the Capitol 10 Days after his election to break bread Wilh speaker Jim Wright and from All reports it was a peaceful meeting. But Many who have watched Wright operate in the past think the speaker having had the president elect to lunch now Wilt undertake to have him for lunch. The opinions impressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the. Authors and me in no Way la be considered u representing the news of the stars had stripes or the United slates government