European Stars And Stripes (Newspaper) - February 20, 1989, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Demographic portrait of a. Ely Larry Thompson Washington Post Early one in five american men have engaged in homosexual activity at least once in their lives but fewer than 4 percent of these men could be considered homosexual according to a National Academy of sciences report. The study the first to update the 1948 Kinsey report on human sexuality does not dramatically alter the estimate of How Many american men Are homosexual. It does however Challenge statistics frequently used by Gay advocacy groups that often Siny that 10 percent of . Men Are Gay. In the Nas report Only 1.9 percent of men report having had homosexual sex occasionally and an additional 1.4 percent fairly often. The study defined Gay Dex As sexual Contact to orgasm with another  published in science Magazine the study is based in a random Survey of 1,450 men conducted in 1970 Eind a smaller Pilot Survey of 638 men in 1988. The 1970 Survey asked about sexual attitudes and Ruji Havior but results were never published reportedly because of struggles Between the authors for control. In the Wake of the aids epidemic that has affected i disproportionate number of homosexuals the Academy s committee on acquired immune deficiency syndrome dusted off the study. The panel Analysed the findings again and compared them with a Pilot purvey conducted in 1988 by the National opinion research Center in Chicago which also conducted he 1970 Survey. The Small 1988 Survey provided the Confidence that the 1970 statistics were not off the Wall said or. Charles f. Turner director of the Nas committee on aids research and the behavioural social and statistical sciences. The current study provides some of the Best statistics on homosexual behaviour but the authors cautioned that the results Are probably an underestimate because an unknown number of men questioned in 1970 Are thought to have denied that they were Gay. We believe it is a lower limit because the study s accuracy depends on what people Are willing to report Turner said. Or. William w. Darrow a research sociologist at the centers for disease control in Atlanta pointed out that the Survey was done before the Gay rights movement so Many Gay men probably were still in the closet he said. Despite the limitations the study provides a Basic demographic portrait of the homosexual population in the United states. If the total percentage of men found by the study to be actively Gay 3.3 percent is multiplied by the 78.2 million american men Between 16 and 64, As reported in 1987 by the . Bureau of the census then there May be As Many As 2.2 million men who Are Active homosexuals. Because of the reporting Bias Turner said the Only thing you can say is that it is not less than this. How much larger is not  forty years ago Alfred c. Kinsey founder of the Kinsey Institute for sex research at Indiana University in Bloomington reported that 4 percent of american men were exclusively homosexual throughout their lives. Kinsey s study based on thousands of non random interviews Between 1938 and 1948, concluded that More than 2.5 million 4 percent of . Men Between 16 and 55 years of age Are exclusively homosexual throughout their lives an estimated 5 million to 10 million More will have some homosexual  Turner cautioned that the new report cannot be compared directly with the original Kinsey conclusions. The Nas researchers wrote that most of the men included in our 3.3 percent estimate could not be classified As exclusively homosexual throughout their  estimates of homosexual activity have played an important role in Early attempts to determine How widely the aids virus has spread in the United states. In 1986, the Public health service projected that 1.5 million americans already were infected with the aids virus an estimate partially based on the Kinsey data. The future Impact of such statistics is less Clear. Darrow said current estimates of those infected with aids depend More on studies that test people for aids infection and on reports of new aids cases. The actual number of . Homosexuals is not As crucial today As when the first aids estimates were calculated in 1986, Darrow said. In one result with implications for the aids epidemic the Nas study found that among the one fifth of men who had any homosexual encounter 19.6 percent were married. Within this group of married men 5.4 percent continued to have occasional homosexual encounters and 2.6 percent had such encounters fairly often. If married men Are continuing to have homosexual relations there May be a heightened risk that they will contract aids and pass it on to their wives or other heterosexual partners perhaps speeding the spread of the virus to the general heterosexual population. Darrow however questioned the accuracy of the marriage data because most individuals known to be infected with or suffering symptoms from the aids virus Are Gay men living alone or with another Man. The study seems sound said Urvashi Vaid of the National Gay and lesbian task Force in Washington. It is not unfair. We see it As a study that expands the Kinsey  while she agreed that the new report does slightly lower the estimates in the older Kinsey report Vaid said it does t contradict the Kinsey data. More comprehensive studies Are now being planned. The 1988 Survey tested a questionnaire that will be used in a future major Survey of american sexual attitudes and Behaviours. When the federally sponsored study is conducted As Many As 20,000 americans May be interviewed. Said Darrow the whole area of research in human sexuality is just opening up. Scientists were not allowed to ask these questions. Now they  is Lisa Rivard the changing face of aids by Lawrence k. Altman new York times eight years after aids made its startling appearance in the United states it i changing its  overwhelmingly an affliction of Gay men acquired immune deficiency syndrome is More and More becoming a disease of poor Black and hispanic heterosexuals in the inner City. People and institutions Are now slowly adjusting to a Long term threat requiring unrelenting vigilance and aggressive countermeasures. Already the disease has struck 85,000 americans and More than half have died. Today Gay men still account for a majority of cases of aids and Are believed to be the majority of those who carry the aids virus but Are not ill. But health officials say there Are tantalizing signs that the period of surges of new cases among Gay men May be ending. Data Over the last two years suggest that the rate at which Gay men get aids has finally begun to flatten out at a level somewhat above 7,000 new cases every six months. Intravenous drug users and their sex partners and babies concentrated in the nation s inner cities now account for More than one fourth of the aids cases. Evidence suggests that the virus is spreading fastest among those groups. Minority groups Are disproportionately hit four out of five aids cases attributed to sharing Needles have occurred among the Black and the hispanic. American Success in curbing the disease among drug addicts and the Urban poor will determine the disease s future course More than anything else Many experts now say. So far there has been no indication that aids is spreading explosively among the general heterosexual population. But the Story is different among poor people who live amid rampant drug addiction. It is beginning to turn out that heterosexual aids is a poor people s disease said or. Andrew Moss an epidemiologist at the san Francisco general Hospital. Historically speaking say 50 years from now homosexuals and drug users will not be the Central phenomenon in aids. Aids will be a routine sexually transmitted disease and we have to adapt to thinking in those  although aids is no longer novel it remains a Public health emergency. One enormous Challenge is to further curb the spread of the virus. While evidence suggests that most Gay men Are now aware of the dangers of unprotected sexual activity education and warnings for Gays As Well As heterosexuals must be unremitting. The major task today Many health experts assert has been to fight the spread of the virus among drug addicts and their sex partners a task that requires Many responses from vast increases in drug treatment programs to education in a form that will reach the dispossessed youth of Urban ghettos. The surgeon general of the United states or. C. Everett Koop has said that health workers have been Gay rights activism symbolized by rallies has prompted More homosexuals to come out of the closet. Singularly unsuccessful in penetrating the drug addicted culture with messages about the risks of injecting drugs and sharing Needles. The search for better medical treatment of aids remains As urgent As it is frustrating. Scores of thousands Are suffering from aids related diseases and scientists fear that Over the coming years most of the million plus americans believed to be infected with the aids virus will become ill. The search for drugs has met with controversy and disappointment. So far Only one drug at  has been proved effective in fighting the aids virus but it is highly toxic cannot be taken by Many patients and is no cure. Because of at and the improved treatment of some of the diseases that afflict those with aids some patients appear to be surviving longer than patients in the past. But Many current aids patients and advocates say that the Federal program to develop new aids drugs is not responding fast enough. Scientists say they Are still not sure whether a vaccine to prevent being infected with the aids virus will be possible. Or. Harold w. Jaffe chief of aids epidemiology at tha Federal centers for disease control in Atlanta Sai the initial Hopes that either the number of infected people would be very Small or that we would have a highly effective therapy or a vaccine in the near future All appear to be false  Federal health officials have projected that by the end of 1992, 365,000 americans will have developed aids with 263,000 deaths. In 1992 alone according to this estimate 80,000 new cases will occur posing an extraordinary Challenge to the health care system. However the uncertainties Are great total cases by 1992 could in this projection Range from 205,000 to 440,000. The total number of americans who Are infected with the aids virus remains poorly known in part because of delays in obtaining results from several l surveys. Initial results of Many surveys Are due not education and warnings such As this san Francisco bus poster Are vital in battling aids. Later this year Federal officials said. The United states Public health service estimated very roughly in 1986 that 1 million to 1.5 million americans carried the virus and that estimate has not been revised. Available data indicate that More than half of those who carry the virus develop aids within 10 years of infection and studies have suggested that most carriers will eventually become ill. Homosexual and bisexual men remain the group at highest risk of developing aids accounting for More than 60 percent of the cumulative National cases. But no longer Are cases so heavily concentrated in the Gay communities of new York san Francisco and los Angeles. Now More than two thirds of aids cases reported among homosexual men occur outside these three cities. Heterosexual users of intravenous drugs accounted for 23 percent of the new cases reported in the United states in 1988, up from the figure of 17 to 18 percent that had been steadily reported since 1982. Global aids Outlook grim new York times w Hile the aids epidemic has spread to most of the world Africa and the United states have by far the most cases and the widest spread of the deadly virus. The disease is gathering Force in latin America and Europe experts warn but so far Asia has been largely spared. Despite Gross under reporting of aids in some countries the world health organization has made very rough estimates of worldwide prevalence. By last month officials believe perhaps 377,000 people had become sick with aids worldwide. This includes about 200,000 cases in Africa mainly in several Central and Eastern countries and 110,000 cases in North America including the United states and Canada. About 40,000 cases have occurred in latin America and the Caribbean 25,000 in Europe and 1,500 in Australia new zealand and the Pacific. Only about 500 cases Are known in Asia. Current disease cases however Are Only the first signs of an unfolding disaster. Officials of the health organization estimate that 5 million to 10 million people May already be infected with the aids virus. Most Are expected to become ill in the years ahead. If the total number of virus carriers is 5 million said or. James Chin an american epidemiologist at health organization it May include 2.5 million in Africa and More than 1 million in the United states 750,000 in latin America and 500,000 in Europe. The Outlook for Many african countries is especially grim. The virus which in Africa is mainly spread through heterosexual Intercourse and from mothers to newborns has become entrenched in Urban areas there. Studies indicate that among sexually Active people from the Ages of 15 to 45 years 5 percent to 10 percent carry the virus in Kinshasa the capital of Zaire and More than 20 percent Are infected in Kampala the ugandan capital Lusaka the zambian capital and Kigali the rwandan capital. Not surprisingly with so Many men and women infected the toll among newborns is High and climbing. In latin America the epidemic was at first concentrated among homosexual men and intravenous drug abusers As it is in the United states and Europe. But in recent years aids has increasingly spread among heterosexuals. New cases in Haiti and other afflicted Caribbean countries too mainly involve heterosexuals. Page 14 the stars and stripes monday february 20,1989 the stars and stripes Page 15