European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 03, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                In those weeks before the East German Borders were opened abandoned trails the tiny East German autos were perhaps the most graphic Symbol of the refugee movement. These were left behind at the hungarian Border town of Kophazy. Capitalism looks to the East by Randy Mcclain staff writer Western business spurred on by the profit motive could spark an economic Miracle inthe East bloc rivalling the rebuilding of Wesl Germany after world War ii. That s the opinion of several economists interviewed in the midst of pro democracy movements ripping apart communism s hold on East Germany Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Bulgaria and Romania. Opinions differ on How quickly Western style economies will take Root and not everyone believes East and West Germany will one Day become. Single political state. But All of those interviewed arc encouraged by the Pace of change thus far. Economist Peter Danylow an East bloc watcher with a think tank in Obenhausen West Germany said there Are a number of obstacles to economic Reform inthe East. But he does t think Reform minded governments there have much Choice except to look West for the skill and Money needed to resurrect moribund economics "1 would think that the average person would no oppose Western investment As Long As it leads to the modernization of Industry greater efficiency and an improved Standard of living Danylow said. Western companies will head East As Long As they can bring Back profits he said. Still Danylow is hesitant to predict How Long True economic Reform will take. The first few Days after the opening of the Berlin Wall ignited feelings of euphoria in the West but in recent weeks people have comeback to Earth. The problem is that when things return to Normal All these dreams of a Bright future must face reality Danylow said. The real issues have to be talked about. And that s More difficult than walking through the streets dancing and drinking  nevertheless some other analysts expect economic Reform to proceed with lightning Speed. The face of Europe will be changed in five years and it will be private business that leads the Way said Tony Baron head economist with the Chas investment Bank in London. Baron predicted that other members of the european economic Community will help West Germany forge some sort of special relationship with East Germany Over the next several years even if that Page 14 population of the East figures Given Are projected in millions 1990 2000 2025 Eastern Europe 115.7 Western Europe 154.b West Germany East Germany Czechoslovakia Hungary Poland Romania Bulgaria users a Susan Harris Falls Short of outright political reunification. Increased lies Between the two Germany will com about he said. Baron does t fear that West Germany will turn away from the european Community or move toward neutrality in order to take advantage of new opportunities in the East bloc. Instead the allure will be for the East germans to be tied More and More in he said. Dec leaders already have Given conditional approval to the concept of political reunification. At an Early december meeting in Strasbourg. France the dec agreed to support reunification if East and West Germany respect other nations Borders and the people of both nations choose to unite. The dec also has discussed Broad based economic Aid for the East bloc including setting up a special economic development Bank. East bloc Reform could t be coming at a better time for Wesl Germany said Baron head of economic strategy at Chase. West Germany has suffered from an exceptionally Low birth rate and a decline of people of working age As a percent of its total  Baron wrote in an economic position paper. Opportunities for West German businesses to expand into the East bloc arc immense and the number of East German refugees who have resettled in the West also is a positive development. The thousands of new refugees will ease labor shortages in the West German Economy and keep wage inflation a stars and stripes special report Down. Baron  analysts agree that the economic integration of the East bloc with Western society is coming utmost say they re not sure How Long it will Lake. What you Are witnessing is the re education of East european society said Hans Heino Kopitz senior analyst at the International Institute for strategic studies in  you can t rebuild the Wall. But How these societies ill look in five years. God Only  after the Berlin Wall s opening professor Erich Klink Miiller. An economist with the East Europe Institute in West Berlin predicted economic and political change will sweep Over the East bloc very quickly particularly in East Germany. East Germany is the no. 1 location in the world for investment and Czechoslovakia is no. 2." Klink Miiller said. Both countries have a Well educated work Force and East Germany has the added advantage of sharing a common language with West Germany he said. The Long term economic picture is very Bright. I would assume you would t recognize East German Yin 10 years. The economic Miracle will be even More impressive than the one we underwent in West Germany after world War  said a major Roadblock to capital investment in the East remains the  blk currencies. But he thinks that problem eventually will be overcome. On the West German Home front the thousands of refugees who headed West in 1989 Are Likely to be highly Mobile and willing to move to areas plagued by acute labor shortages Baron said. The refugees arc in Large part Young people of working age he , although potential demand is increased by their arrival so is potential  the Bottom line is that West German Gross National product could be boosted by As much As Naif a percent in 1990 based solely on the influx of new workers from the East Baron  terms of Trade a reformed East bloc offers Wesl Germany another fast grow ing Export Market Baron said. Today Trade with the East bloc accounts for Only 5 percent of the West German total. In contras a. 60 percent of West Germany s Trade is with european economic Community nations. Business development in the East bloc won t com easily though. Baron said. One of the biggest hurdles will he convincing people to accept the risks associated with capitalism including possible  will have to be a change in the philosophy of january 1990