European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 6, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes column Leonard silk ., Europe must prepare for a United Germany Many Peoples anxieties these Days focus on the political and military dangers of German unification. Memories of the third Reich do not fade. But in a world in which economics is a crucial Clement in National and International Power attention must be paid to the economic consequences of the unified Germany that appears to be emerging before the rest of the world is ready for it. West Germany is already the strongest Economy in Europe. The Prospect of an even greater Germany with the biggest population the largest Gross National product the strongest balance of payments and the strongest currency in Europe strikes other governments West and East As too big to Swallow. Yet alter the pressures unleashed by the economic slide of the communist bloc and the nationalistic forces released by the peaceful revolution in East Germany unification appears unstoppable whether sooner or a bit later. It therefore has become More important than Ever for Germany to be closely linked to the european Community and to remain within the Only european body in which the United states still plays the loading role the North Atlantic treaty organization. Chancellor Helmut Kohl of West Germany caught up in the enthusiasm of the crowds in East Germany declared recently Quot my goal if the hour of history allows it is the Unity of the  yet while proclaiming that the two Ger Many arc on the difficult path to forging a single state he urged East germans to take account of the views and interests of its neighbors. The strongest resistance to a United Germany is Likely to come not from president Francois Mitterrand of France prime minister Margaret Thatcher of Britain or president Bush but from soviet president Mikhail s. Gorbachev. He has been declaring that the soviet Union paid 20 million lives for the current stability of the  Safire but must German unification necessarily disrupt stability a much depends on the process of change a a leading european specialist Ivo cd crr of the Stanford research Institute said in an interview. A if other countries criticize or try to impede the process the germans Are Likely to dig in their heels and nationalism will gain  if the process can be conducted intelligently and slowly and if the germans make Clear that they intend to remain members of the Western team he contended a United Germany could lend economic and political strength to the West. The main Hope for preventing unification pressures from wrecking the european Community and the Atlantic Alliance or from reviving antagonisms Between the West and the soviet Union would be for West Germany backed by its allies to provide economic help to East Germany and other Eastern european states. Apart from government Aid what is needed is the creation of an environment that will encourage private business to invest in the East and Case technology Transfer and economic development of those communist or formerly communist countries willing to cooperate in a new version of the Marshall plan. That could include the soviet Union itself. Probably the most important aspect of the Marshall plan was the thrust it gave to National improvements in organization and productivity and the revival of business investment and Trade. The forces of an ardent nationalism of the right were growing again in West Germany even before the revolution in East Germany erupted. Now with the Prospect of reunification nearer German nationalism has inevitably been Given new impetus. If the East germans having lived so Long under the Yoke of their communist masters should freely choose to change their economic and political system the problem of German unification will in time solve itself. Immediately however the Issue of National sovereignty could be too menacing for the european Community and other countries to handle. Kohl appeared to get it right when he said in Dresden last month a with common sense and moderation and a sense for realities we can reach our  a critical test will come on May 7, when parliamentary elections will be held in East Germany. If the result should be a mandate for immediate unification the Western Alliance and the detente with the soviet Union could suffer a serious blow. A healthy economic and political outcome in Europe will primarily be up to the europeans and especially to rational and cautious leadership in both East and West Germany. The United states can Best Back that play by holding to an open Trade policy and by working within nato for a reassessment of the threat from the East and a consequent reduction in military expenditures that would Aid economic stability and growth. That would help provide the resources and the will for a new Marshall plan. New York times news service More impositions from a vulgar Almanack maker the originator of annual prognostication was Jonathan wifi whose Quot predictions for the year 170s&Quot confidently named Quot the great actions and events of next year particularly related As they will come to pass. Written to prevent the people of England from being further impose d on by vulgar  the great satirist quit after the first year not me. Guesswork in this space has become one of the Hoa Riest journalistic traditions extant a 16 years of error never a Day of doubt a and events foretold Here last year included the fall of the Berlin Wall. Forget the rest to the Crystal Ball 1 the first Bush insider to find himself on the outside will be a John Sununu after his Campaign to oust Cia chief William Webster backfires b agriculture Secretary Clayton Reutler after scandals Rock his commodity credit corp. C cuff shooting Joseph Vemer Reed after some protocol Gaffe d James Baker after repeatedly slamming into the everlasting Gates. 2 the major White House problem will be a major shootout at credibility Gap b plunge in Bush a a 1 economic prospects c Sunu Quot a a pan for worrying revelation of a secret Deal at Malta Vej Poindexter a threatened Tell All Book. 3 the democratic front runner in the 1992 sweepstakes will be a Mario Cuomo who will not run again for governor of new York b the new mayor of Washington Jesse Jackson c sen. Bill Bradley after abandoning the snore inducing third world debt d Ever aging sen. Al Gore heated by global warming e Sam Nunn already beating Wall Street Bushes for financing. 4 the non fiction stunner of the year will be a a what i saw at the revolution a by Peggy Noonan b Helmut Schmidt so men in Power c a one by one by one facing the holocaust a by Judith Miller d a the Bible and us a by Andrew Greeley and Jacob Neusner e a my Cia years Quot by Gen. Manuel Antonio Noriega. 5 the Surprise Best Selling novel will be a Quot mayday Man Quot by William Beecher b Quot when they took away the Man in the Moon Quot by Kate Lehrer c a Gordon Liddy is my Muse Quot far out fiction by John Calvin Batchelor d Quot protect and defend a by Jack Valenti. 6 the Diplomatist concerned with the German question will be muttering about a another Rapallo b another Locarno c another Tau Roggen d another Brest Litovsky e another peace of tilsit. This is a hard one 7 the  Economy a will Boom at a rate of More than 4 percent inflation adjusted growth helped by a capital gains tax reduction b will bust into recession by year end increasing the deficit c will continue its rolling re adjustment with regional recessions d will be shaken by a Slock Market crash in Japan. 8 As superpower Dominion lessens a poles and germans will argue about the Oder Neisse line b hungarians will demand a return of Transylvania from Romania c Anli communist romanians and bes arabians will demand Moldavia Back from the soviets d finns will agitate for the soviets to return Karelia c the new York times will grimly continue to spell Romania with a  9 the source of Mikhail Gorbachev a most Job threatening trouble will be a dissident Yuri Afanasyeva b prime minister Nikolai Ryzhkova c populist Boris Yeltsin d the pkg by a Vladim Kryuchkov e the red army a Ogarkow faction. 10 Best news of the year will be a the repeal of article 6 of the soviet Constitution b the emergence of moderate palestinian leaders c the reality of the peace dividend d the winning of Independence by the Baltic republics e the quieting of legalizes by Progress in the drug War. 11 worst news of the year will be a the sobering realization that Many superpower interests Are still in conflict b multimillion losses in Federal credit and insurance programs beyond the a amp is c the islamic bomb d big democratic gains in the Senate. 12 the big geopolitical headache will be a Quick German reunification b the Rush to a Start treaty to save a Gorbachev who May not be there c suddenly expansionist Japan d the sino soviet conflict. 13 conservatives will be sore at Bush for a new taxes b Selling out Jonas Sav Imbi c sticking them with the abortion Issue d dithering with Sand Istas e abandoning ski 0 being so popular with his suffocating centrism. If you done to play you can twin no sideline snickering allowed. My own picks Are 1-b, 2-b, 3-a, 4-c, 5-b, 6-a, 7-b, 8-c, 9-b, 10-d, 1 la 12-a, 13-f. I do this Only to prevent you from being further impose d on by vulgar Almanack makers. New York times news service