European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 17, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 the stars and stripes saturday february 17,1990  w pm m a my realist Gorbachev made the Best Deal he could for months now. Mikhail s. Gorbachev has been playing a poor hand so deftly Hal it has often looked like a Good one. Bui by giving in to president Bush on troop Levels and to Chancellor Helmut Kohl of West Germany on reunification he has Laid Bare the strategic weakness of his country in a dramatic Way. Beset by economic problems at Home by the growing Independence of the one time satellite nations in Eastern Europe and by the decline of communism almost everywhere the soviet Leader has abandoned important soviet objectives and fallen in line with positions Long held in the West. Unlike his predecessors who had to calculate their policies on the basis of soviet strength taking care to avoid inadvertent provocations. Bush is increasingly faced with a wholly different prob Lem. Soviet weakness presents the United slates with a Panorama of Opportunity but he must not exploit his openings so aggressively thai he weakens Gorbachev or at least so his advisers figure. Great Powers do not ordinarily agree and agree quickly to let their erstwhile and possibly future enemies maintain More troops in an important area than they arc permitted to maintain especially when the new Levels mean a com plete reversal of a balance that has prevailed for 45 years. But Gorbachev has not Only agreed to Cut his forces in Central Europe by about 375.000 troops while inc . Cuts Only about 80.000 bul he has agree to allow inc . 10 keep 30.000 troops in Europe that will not be offset by soviet forces. Four Days earlier. Gorbachev had said he could not accept inc extra 30.000. Indeed while Bush was saying publicly on monday that he would Slick by his proposal and insist on the imbalance one of his key advisers was saving that perhaps some other Way would have to be found to make the Point that the Allie wanted american troops to stay in Europe regardless of soviet troop Levels. It turned out thai no other Way of de livering the message was needed. On Germany likewise Gorbachev has Given up something of tremendous importance. The do Facto partition of Ger Many was carried out in the first place largely because of Sovil fears Hal a United Germany would seek once More to dominate Europe. Div slated by German arms in world War ii. Two generations of russians saw East Germany As the key Buffer to the West. Now Gorbachev has nol Only Given his hesitant Blessing to an eventual reunification. But has agreed to the creation of a Structure to oversee so curly aspects of inc state. That too surprised Bush who said on monday that it was too Early for a four Power meeting on the future of Ger Many. Wednesday he conceded he had been Laken Aback and commented a Bil ruefully things move quite fast  in both instances Gorbachev s hand was forced by the disaffection of the for Mer Sovil Sal Elliles. With czech Slovakia and Hungary and Poland All asking thai soviet troops recalled Home and Nugo Lillions on Hal subject under Way the Deal Bush offered May be Butler however unequal than what he could get a year from now. Whal Gorbachev has agreed to confers a certain legitimacy on the presence of195,000 soviet troops in the so called Central zone of Europe at a time when there Are prospects that the actual figure might soon fall below that. As defined in arms ngot Illions Europe s cd neral zone embraces West Ger Many Belgium the Netherlands Luxembourg Denmark and All of the countries in Eastern Europe except to mania and Bulgaria. Bush s critics at Home have suggested that 195,000 is Loo High. Bul inc soviet acceptance of thai level makes it More Likely that the president will be Able to hold the line there Al least for a  months which is an eternity in european affairs these Days. With East Germany agreeing to a common currency with West Germany and moving rapidly toward informal unification on a dozen fronts a supervisory role for the soviet Union in com Pany with the Western big three maybe the most Gorbachev could Ever expect in the Way of a Brake on any Ger Man expansionary tendencies. Once again Gorbachev has shown himself the supreme realist a Man pre pared to ratify really when even threaten to get away from him rather than railing Al the Moon. Bul he is fighting a rear guard action. What he can realistically Hope to achieve from his position of weakness at Home and abroad keeps shrinking. The new Yortis times James j. Kilpatrick Mandela s Aims help marxists not South Africa forgive me a personal word about South Africa. 1 first visited thai Beautiful and beleaguered land More than 30 years ago. A  years later i resumed in the company of a group of scholars. Still Lair i went Back to lecture a two South african universities. Meanwhile i read intensively on the subject. What have i Learned from All this Only that i know nothing really about this vast subcontinent. And most of those in the United Stales who Are whooping it up for Nelson Mandela and an end to apartheid know less than nothing about South Africa. Our own history of racial conflict and assimilation offers no useful analogies. The difference Between Alabama and Zululand is roughly the difference Between Alabama and the planet Venus. It is out of our enormous National ignorance that Man Dela s release has been greeted with such jubilation. If the american South could accommodate itself to desegregation say the simplistic thinkers. South Africa should be Able to make the same accommodation one Man one vote Equality for All an end to any form of discrimination based upon race. All thai is required is that the bigoted White leadership commit cultural suicide. Nothing to it. A piece of cake. Let us face realities. We Are talking of a nation in which inc while population is outnumbered almost six to one by the Blacks roughly 28 million to 5 million. Beyond the Bright lights of Johannesburg. Cape town and Durban we arc talking of great areas of darkness a darkness both literal and metaphorical. I still have my old notes on inc languages of South Africa. The Bantu Tongue is subdivided into Noguni Soho and Tonga bul the Gunis speak 12 dialects and the Soho speak ii. One of the Noguni dialects is xhosa i which speech depends upon 18 distinctive clicking sounds phonemes descended from the bushmen and Hotten tots. The advocates of one Man one vote should spend a Little time in the Transki. Then let them talk glibly offending apartheid by a stroke of the legislative pen. This is going to be a Long haul for everyone in South Africa for Liberal whiles for hard line afrikaners for Zulu and swazi for indians and coloureds. Mandela and his african National Congress do not have a single constituency. Back in the Bush nationalism is a Mirage theold loyalties and mores of tribalism still widely prevail. The Urban township of Soweto is about As typical of South Africa As the South Bronx is typical of the United Stales. Perhaps the leadership of Mandela on the one hand and president . De Klerk on the other can find some path toward a not intolerable solution. But Don t Bel on it. On his release from prison where he served 27 years for High treason in the form of armed insurrection Mandela made a speech that merits careful Reading. He began by saluting the military Wing of the Anc. He saluted the South african communist party for us Ster Ling  he singled out communists Bram mistier and Moses Mathida for particular recognition. He saluted the Ancs president Comrade Oliver Tambo. Said Mandela i am a Loyal and disciplined member of the african National Congress. I am therefore in full agreement with All of its objectives strategies and  jubilant westerners should Lake Mandela at his word. His commitment to All of the Ancs objectives Strate Gies and tactics is an ominous portent of trouble to come. The Anc May not be dominated by communists the verb is subject to Fine lines of definition but there is no question that the Anc is riddled with marxist adherents. Comrade Tambo is Foremost among them. Do Klerk has gone about As far As he can go. In his dramatic speech of feb. 2, he pledged his administration to Universal  he lifted the ban on the Anc and the South african communist party. He abolished Emer gency regulations governing the Media and the schools. He pledged the immediate release of political prisoners. It is now up to Mandela to meet conciliation with conciliation. Here at Home the Bush administration can help by promptly lifting major economic sanctions. Members of Congress i think especially of such ornaments As sen. Alan Cranston d-cafif., Ana rep. Ron Dellums d-calif., could con Tibule by knocking off the do Magog cry. Our National interest lies in seeing a a no Anca on cited toward the West. Mandela s interest lies some where else. C Universal press Syndicate