European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 21, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 columns the stars and stripes William Safire cubans will turn on repression sooner not later socialism or death is now Fidel Castro s slogan repeated at the opening and close of his speeches. He May be right but it is not socialism that is ahead for Cuba. After 30 years in Power. Castro is this hemisphere s Ceausescu More dictatorial than Ever refusing to save his nation from disaster. Even if we were left alone and were the last  he swears of defend a sys tem that promised Security but delivered tyranny. From the Start he made his nation a dependency of the soviet Union. The Castro economic system which ensures total control of the political system guarantees permanent hard limes Tor cubans. This made for a kind of depressed stability As Long As Moscow would pick up the Bill. In 1988. That subsidy totalled nearly $7 billion in hard currency and did not de Cline last year. In return. Castro sent an army of 50.000 men to serve soviet interests in Africa. The adventure in Angola helped Cas Tro beyond the rental of his troops. It kept Busy an officer corps Likely to turn against him. Last year he executed Gen. Arnaldo Ochoa and other potential coup leaders on trumped up drug charges. We May one Day see. At the trial of the deposed strongman of Panama How Cas Tro s regime profited from that drug Trade. We will also learn How cuban Fisher men used panamanian cutouts to evade the . Trade embargo. But the reason for Castro s coming downfall is the economic crisis facing his David s. Broder soviet sponsors. An academician s article in mus Kovskie no Vosti revealed that mos cow is spending proportionately six times As much As the . On foreign Aid the largest portion of this unsustainable Cost of Empire going to Cuba. That sort of soviet article is now banned in Cuba. The cuban dictator has said he banned such publications of Peresky troika As Moscow news without vacillation because they cast aspersions on Lenin and socialism itself. This in fraternal act was caused by de lays in delivery of ukrainian wheat an the Oil Moscow arranges for Venezuela to deliver. Bread prices have jumped a third in Havana and rationing has begun in the Countryside. In another self defeating response Castro has delayed shipments of fruit and sugar to the soviet Union where those items arc especially scarce. Cuba has become a satellite trying re entry into this world without a heat shield. Some evidence of Mutual cooperation remains. Moscow has inexplicably begun delivery of Mig-29 jets making Cuba More dangerous in the Caribbean. Moscow has also failed to accelerate the removal of the remaining cuban mercenaries from Angola where the continued presence of More than 20,000 of Castro s troops has encouraged the communist government to break the truce in a last ditch Effort to defeat Jonas Sevim by s Unita. Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii. In his finest hour before the soviet parliamentarians hammered away at the Mig shipments and the in tolerable soviet subsidy of Cuba. By recalling Arthur Koestler s dark Ness at noon he nicely alluded to the confession of Ochoa at his show trial. The soviets should know by now that they can expect great resistance to any . Economic cooperation while they subsidize Castro s regime with Money and food the soviet Consumers desperately need. Cuts in Moscow s subsidy Are inexorable. That Means More rationing and higher inflation on the Way. Cuban troops now exiled to Angola arc coming Home further separating the army from the party. The other Day a nervous Central committee in Havana promised a Crit ical analysis of Cuba s Lack of fresh  but in an oblique warning to the army it circled Castro s wagons pledging to perfect its grass roots organization that controls the country the commit tees for the defense of the revolution. If help from Moscow turns to hostility if the dispute Over Cuba s $6.8 billion debt Means no fresh Loans Are granted by other sources and if the . Turns up the economic heat both directly an through Castro s longtime sponsor then a great Many cubans Are going to get both hungry Aid angry. Where is the cuban Sakharov Havel Walesa. Fang Lizhi dissidents exist though few Are publicized. But the notion of a docile brain washed cuban populace devoid of he roes offends logic and conflicts with reality. We need incite nobody though the dictator rails at our broadcasts As imperialist ideological  the cuban people will turn against repression sooner rather than later. Freedom s tide will touch the Sands of Havana. Cd new York to Kiwi huge risks Are involved in . Policy on China for the moment .-China re lations arc off the Public s mind. When president Bush told a news conference on Lincoln s birthday that he was Dis Turbed by news that Beijing authorities had just raised new barriers for students coming to the United slates the Washington Post did not even bother to report the comment. But this is an Issue thai will not go away. What happens in that nation of i billion people is far too important to ignore for Long. And George Bush made China policy a partisan Domestic Politi Cal Issue when he rounded up enough Republican senators in january to sus Tain his veto of a Bill providing extended stays in the United Stales for 40.000 chinese students worried about their Fate at the hands of the regime that crushed the student demonstrations in Tiana men Square last june. Bush said his decision to handle the students status by administrative action rather than legislation would keep the chinese from slamming the door on other exchanges. More broadly he de fended that unpopular decision and the two High level missions he sent 10 Beijing last year on the grounds that he. Bush had been the . Envoy to China in the 1970s and should not be second guessed. So far. Unhappily the chinese Are pro Viding More ammunition for his critics than they arc for Bush. While martial Law has been lifted in Beijing . Peaceful demonstrations Are still banned journalists Are still restricted and the voice of America is still being jammed. New rules requiring students to work for five years before applying to continue their educations abroad Are so crippling that even Bush called them  the disquiet republicans feel about Bush s policy of cultivating the current chinese leaders was demonstrated on feb. 7 when Deputy Secretary of slate Lawrence Eagle Burger tried to defend the policy before the Senate for eign relations committee. Eagleburger had accompanied White House National Security adviser Brent scowcroft on the july and december missions to Beijing. Sen. Frank Murkowski a Alaska begged him just to take a scrap of paper and write out a paragraph i can use in justifying administration policy to angry chinese students. Should t the chinese be making conciliatory gestures to us he asked. Don t they need us More than we need them foreign policy experts in the hearing room snickered at what they considered the naivete of Murkowski s questions. But my Hunch is that those Are exactly the questions that will be at the heart of the Domestic political debate if the chinese leaders continue to make Bush s Gamble look bad. Thanks to skillful questioning by Ihrck of the committee democrats Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware Paul Sar bancs of Maryland and John Kerry of Massachusetts Eagleburger was led into laying out the assumptions underly ing the administration s policy More clearly than anyone else has done. The approach to China is utterly different from the approach to Eastern Europe he said. There we Lent our moral support and assistance to the pro democracy forces like Solidarity challenging the communist regimes. In China we arc not betting on demonstrators in the streets apparently because we doubt those Urban workers and students really have mass support in the Rural peasantry. Instead we arc betting on elements in the current leadership we Hopewell someday pursue policies of economic Reform. We Are gambling in other words on being Able to influence the internal Power struggle Over the succession to the aged Deng Xiaoping on the grounds As Eagleburger put it that the process of change in China so far has largely been led from the  that makes sense to Many China experts from past democratic As Well a Republican administrations with whom i be talked. But it has huge risks. Eagle Burger conceded that we have limited influence on the Power struggles within the Beijing Hierarchy. Others including former ambassador to China Winston lord argue that we Are squandering whatever influence we May have. Clearly we arc not making Points with the pro democracy students who represent China s future he said and i Don t think we strengthen the reformers with in the current leadership by suggesting that China s leaders can continue repression without paying a Price in their relationship with the United states. The other key Point that emerged from the questioning is that the administration wishes to present its policy As China specific to use Eagle burgers phrase. That goes beyond a historical appreciation of China s recurrent tendency to take two Steps Forward and then one step Back in its relationship with the outside world something even such critics As lord acknowledge. Eagleburger insisted that it also Means the leaders of the Kremlin or any other rulers should not think we d be a tolerant of their running tanks Over their own people As we be been of the chinese. And that is too much for most people to Swallow. Sarbanis called it  Kerry said there was a double Stan Dard 1 in our Eastern european and chinese policies. Eagleburger protested but that is exactly what it is. After hearing him Strug Gle i doubt that anyone can explain to the american people Why we cheered on the demonstrators in Gdansk and dres Den Prague and Bucharest but chose to Toast the rulers who crushed the Stu dents in Beijing. C Washington Post Winlin group the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United Stales government