European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 28, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes columns Tom Wicker Apps done to Back Gorbachev into Corner on Lithuania this is no time for militantly anti communist and or anti soviet americans a or any others a to demand immediate recognition of Lithuania a Independence or a . Ultimatum to Mikhail Gorbachev to let that country go. That a said without undue concern for Gorbachev a personal and political Fate and with full sympathy for the Justice of the lithuanian goal. Precisely because Washington Hopes for Lithuania a Success the Bush administration has Little Choice but to slay mostly out of this tense drama. Clearly if the question becomes one of the .s.r. Is. The United states with Washington openly championing Lithuania a separation movement it will be much harder for Gorbachev to allow that Baltic Republic to depart in peace. He would then be in the difficult position of appearing to knuckle under to . Threats rather than of recognizing lithuanian Independence on its merits. Though there has been no unwise posturing in Washington so far Gorbachev himself already has made things More difficult. His refusal to negotiate appears rigidly formalistic. And if he intends to keep his pledge not to use armed Force to hold Lithuania in the soviet Union Why has he paraded tanks and armoured cars through the streets of Vilnius no one outside his inner Circle and perhaps not within it seems to know. If he a bluffing in Hopes of improving his bargaining position with the lithuanian people or with other dissident republics or both he runs the risk of appearing to Back Down when he finally negotiates a peaceful  Safire that could hardly be helpful when he has to Deal with Independence challenges yet to come from other soviet republics. If Gorbachev is not bluffing armed repression in Lithuania a a soviet captive since the Early stages of world War ii a would ruin his Reform program at Home and his High standing abroad involve his government in a debilitating civil War and perhaps set off hot rebellion in restive republics around the Borders of the soviet Union. On the other hand who can doubt that if Lithuania achieves Independence peacefully Estonia whose communist party has broken with Moscow and Latvia will be right behind followed in Short order by a number of those other republics Long resentful of soviet Rule. No Leader in any country can be expected to preside voluntarily Over his nations disintegration much less set it on course. In these threatening circumstances Gorbachev needs not merely to solve his baffling lithuanian problem but to do it on a basis that will make it easier not harder to Deal with the future demands of other republics. That might be accomplished by turning the present soviet Union into a More loosely linked Commonwealth of states associated with but not dominated by Moscow and by setting up a recognized process through which the present member republics a not easily or immediately but ultimately a could achieve new More autonomous status. That sort of Commonwealth May be inherent anyway in reforms Gorbachev already has launched. If the communist party is not to have privileged. One party status and if other political panics my some forms of representative government Are to h permitted then increased autonomy for the Nero republics is already a fact. In More of the same might sufficiently Case the soviet unions Long festering a ethnic Quot problem. Politically that kind of process might substitute orderly Reform for the kind of disintegration the lithuanian precedent must suggest to Gorbachev. Just As important it could significantly shift the Burden of responsibility. Moscow would say in effect to the rebellious republics a you can have most of the Independence you want if you follow the procedure set up for you to achieve  that could make it difficult for one of the republics to spurn the offer of due process and to declare instead its immediate and Complete Independence a presenting Moscow with the lithuanian problem All Over again and perhaps at some Point forcing a Central government to armed repression in order to sustain itself. Why not let them tear themselves apart some americans no doubt Are asking. Why care How it happens if an evil Empire can be thrown on the Ash Heap of history because in any Case the soviet Union can never again be the feared and mighty Monolith of the cold War. Humpty dumpty has had his fall and sensible management of the pieces promises More for the United states the world and Moscow than the unpredictable disintegration that must haunt Gorbachev s sleep. New York times Bush a push for Mideast peace ignores dangers arabs and jews who agree on Little else can agree on this George Bush is less sympathetic to israelis concerns than any . President in the four decades since that nations birth. President Carter harboured grudges at stiff necked israelis but was constrained by the Unity of our ally under my Nachum begin the Strong tics to the democratic party of most jewish voters and the reputation of Israel As a valiant ally under siege. Those protections have been stripped away. Bush is dealing with an Israel paralysed by parliament arianism with a voting group that goes mainly against republicans anyway and with commentators holding Israel to wartime rules never applied to its neighbors. Bush has Long resisted americans special relationship with Israel. His Secretary of state James a. Baker Iii delights in sticking it to the israeli right. His National Security adviser Brent scowcroft and chief of staff John Sununu abet that mind set. The Basic . Policy shift was noted last week by no less of an authority than Yasser Arafat a this administration is the first american administration that Speaks of the end of the israeli occupation a he said hailing Baker for telling israelis a to forget the dream of a greater  Arafat knows who his friends Are. He accurately senses a historic change in White House support of israelis right to decide its future. This is the first administration to openly threaten to Cut Aid to Israel. Baker enlisted Bob Dole in a scheme to drive a rift in american ethnic groups by shifting Aid from Israel to Poland. This is also the first administration to tie Aid directly to israelis willingness to conform to . Policy demands unless the West Bank is barred to jews who want to move there no Loans will be guaranteed to help soviet jews Start new lives. Bush by extending his anathema on a a settlements to a portion of israelis capital is the first to raise the Prospect of a or it or the Flarv of Wesr Bank divided Jerusalem Bush pretends that his Bombshell which brought Down the liked government is no change in . Policy. That legalistic half truth tools nobody. No previous administration shut its eyes to Clear evidence of terrorism. Despite a Rise in attacks on israelis by palestinian arabs and hundreds of assassinations of Intifada arabs by Plo hit men. Bush holds that if no proof can be produced to show Arafat personally ordered the terror the Plo is innocent. With such diplomatic strengthening the Plo was Able to prevail on Mikhail Gorbachev to renege on an agreement with israelis airline to transport soviet jews directly to safety. Another terrorist group was Able to bring the hungarian government to its Knees at least temporarily cancelling an escape route. That a Why Arafat is so High on the Bush administration. That s Why iraqis Saddam Hussein recipient of a fresh $500 million in . Loan guarantees feels no restraint in building Poison Gas plants and missiles hanging anybody who dares to inquire. No wonder that mainstream jewish groups in America have belatedly come to the conclusion that israelis friends Are in the Congress not the White House. And no wonder that israeli diplomats Are straining to build new ties in Central Europe against the Day Bush decides that Israel has lost strategic significance. This administrations policy grimly fixed on imposing a Plo state in the disputed territories and the old City of Jerusalem comes at the worst moment for millions of jews in the soviet Union. Great political cultural pressures arc building in there. Forgive me for sounding alarmist but if resurgent russian nationalism turns anti semitic As it so often has no one can say How Many scapegoats will be slaughtered. Gorbachev to gain american Trade opened the Gates to let jews out. Bush closed american Gates directing the refugees to Israel which exists to receive them. But Arab leaders emboldened by the Bush Baker mind set have used terrorism and diplomacy to Ciosci off the escape route to Israel. Come the first pogrom a god forbid a who in the Bush White House will accept responsibility for failing to Placiti Tate the new exodus while there was Sun time. Who among supporters of Israel Wil step Forward on some future 1 ass0. And admit they were so caught up i the a peace process that they Lulis h confront the real possibility or a a process new York times the opinions expressed in the columns and n0 on this Page represent those of he authors a no t Bijj was to be considered As representing the vie