European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - August 21, 1990, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Page 10 a the stars and stripes tuesday August 21,1990 a t Tri ? Walter r. Mears Woji Miji v in Between Oil crises . Another crisis another round of demands for a National Energy policy to insulate americans against recurrent Oil shocks. Its All happened before. A by failing to learn from the lessons of history we Are condemning ourselves to repeat it a said sen. Lloyd m. Bentsen a Texas arguing that there ought to be a Law requiring emergency measures before Oil imports hit 50 percent of . Consumption. Its too late of course As Bentsyn noted. Imports were running at about 50 percent before the latest persian Gulf crisis erupted with iraqis takeover of Kuwait. 5 As in 1973 and in 1979, the United states faces rising Oil prices. And though there a no immediate Prospect of those kinds of shortages they could come eventually. The earlier Oil shocks were major factors in triggering recessions. The Economy already is slowing and the current turmoil in the persian Gulf can Only make it worse. Despite what happened before and despite the virtual certainty that something similar would happen again . Efforts at Energy discipline were shelved for most of a decade. Ronald Reagan a Energy policy was to leave it alone and let the Market Rule. That sufficed while Middle East Oil was plentiful and relatively cheap. Now the problem is Back. A we have spent the last decade basking in the glow of falling real Energy prices a sen. Albert Gore jr., d-tcnn., said before the Senate passed its Energy policy Bill Early this month. A we have been lulled into a complacency that cannot  during the Reagan administration the department of Energy a conservation budget was slashed by two thirds. When imported Oil prices fell in 1986, . Production fell too. At those prices Many Domestic producers  compete and there was no incentive to keep going. . Oil production is Down by about 20 percent since 1985. At 7.1 million barrels a Day june production was the lowest on record. Remnants of the emergency programs that grew out of the crises of the 1970s have put the United states in better shape to Deal with the Impact of the persian Gulf situation. One of those legacies is the emergency Petroleum Reserve a big enough stockpile to temporarily Cushion against shortages. It could be a lot bigger if the government Hadnot stopped buying during five of the Reagan Dan Balz i be Hearp there was one Arf twp Here purin6 the Carter ministration <51990 years a budget cutting move that could prove expensive. The 1987 Tanker War in the persian Gulf threatened Oil supplies and . Warships were sent to protect the Supply lines. That costly operation in t calculated into the Price of Oil nor is this one. They go onto the tax Bill not the Price at the pump. Sen. Frank h. Murkowski Riaska calculated that counting the Cost of earlier military operations the True Price of imported Oil comes to $52 a barrel. That hypothetical Price tag does no to include the Cost of the massive . Military buildup in saudi Arabia and the for next one persian Gulf. Figured that Way the Price is soaring with the . Military deployment in saudi Arabia and the Gulf. Quot this is not a Freebie out there in terms of the expenditure a president Bush said tuesday saying he could not estimate the Cost or the duration of the operation. But people done to count those costs the Way they count the Cost of a gallon of gasoline. / Oil imports Are a major Factor in the . Trade deficit. James Schlesinger a former Secretary of Energy and of defense says the Price will hit $75 billion next year swelling to Over $100 billion a year by the mid-1990s if past trends continue. Through it All . Energy policy has shifted and drifted. Richard m. Nixon a project Independence made Little headway toward the goal in its name Jimmy Carter said the quest to curb Energy dependence was the moral equivalent of War. His program of conservation and production incentives fees taxes and penalties did no to last Long. The Reagan administration relied on the marketplace. The Bush administration still is at work on its Energy strategy due later this year. A a Quot a. And As Carter notes the Arab Oil suppliers know Only too Well that a we now have no effective National Energy policy nor any commitment to adopt  legislation to declare that Oil imports of 50 percent represent a Quot peril Point for . Security and to require emergency action to keep them lower is part of a new National Energy Security act passed by the Senate just before its August recess. That was two Days after Iraq invaded Kuwait a the Liming coincidental. The Bill was drafted primarily to Deal with global warming not Oil wan. A measure seeking to restrain Oil imports was Defeated by the Senate in 1987 after the last persian Gulf crisis had subsided. Conservation production incentives and new technologies to develop alternative Energy sources All have been components in the successive strategies that were shaped and shelved after the earlier Oil shocks. The department of Energy put together a Quick hit package of Steps to boost production and promote conservation to offset the loss of imports from Kuwait and Iraq. A but Between Oil crises the tendency has been to act As though there  be another one. Waller mean has reported on National politics for the associated press for More than 25  East crisis will be test of Bush s Mettle for 16 months president Bush Rode the currents of Good news Here and around the world to unprecedented approval ratings despite criticism that he was not offering the country Strong leadership. Suddenly the currents have changed raising stiff new challenges that administration officials and outside critics say will test Bush a capacity to govern in a More hostile environment. The changes crystallized with the iraqi invasion of Kuwait a report on rising unemployment another gloomy estimate of the mounting Cost of the savings and loan bailout a major legislative defeat for the administration on the civil rights Bill in the House and embarrassing mis cues by the White House and republicans in Congress in their handling of the budget talks with the democrats. Inside the administration officials recognize that events have turned against them. A the first year we had Jim Wright Tony Coelho and the Berlin Wall a one Olli Cial said. A this year we be got a amp is taxes budget and the iraqi invasion of  what is surprising administration officials say is How Long the Good news lasted Given the Normal ebb and How of events. But As Bush and his advisers fought Domestic Battles on a number of fronts White grappling with the dangers of War in the persian Gulf a stretched thin White House staff began to show signs of Strain and irritability. A i done to think people Are panicking a one official said. A but its a Good time for Congress to leave  a year ago this month it was the democrats who were anxious to leave town and regroup hoping to put behind them the resignations of House speaker Jim Wright of Texas and House majority whip Tony Coelho of California. Now the democrats see a similar problem in the administration. Administration officials while acknowledging that events Here and abroad Are causing uneasiness among the voters express Confidence that the Public will not lose Faith in Bush. Even critics give Bush credit for the Way he has handled some recent events. They say the presidents Swift decision to nominate appeals court judge David h. Souter to the supreme court was an example of the White House controlling events rather than the opposite and his initial handling of the iraqi invasion is seen a plus for the administration. Bui administration officials say privately the Gulf conflict represents a Long term threat to the administration because it plays against the idea that the world has become safer and More stable with the demise of communism in Eastern Europe. The conflict in the Gulf also increases the chances of a recession at Home and there could be Adverse political consequences even from a successful policy aimed at iraqi president Saddam Hussein. The string of bad news also has exposed weaknesses within the administration most notably the High Cost of the consolidation of Power in the hands of a few officials principally White House chief of staff John h. Sununu. Sununu office of management and budget director Richard g. Darman and a few others hold most of the Power in the administration leaving Bush vulnerable if one of them makes a bad Call. Even friends of the administration say there is a no Relief pitching on the White House Staffi no Strong Bench to help carry the Load at a Lime of crisis causing overload at the top. Bush also faces a More confident and increasingly effective democratic opposition. For a president who prefers Compromise consensus and bipartisanship in is increased partisanship among the democrats poses new problems. The struggle Over the civil rights Bill illustrated this vividly. Bush sought Compromise in both the Senate and the House but in the end the democrats refused his offers leaving the president in the awkward position of perhaps being the first president to veto a major civil rights Bill. Some administration officials argue that a veto can be turned into a political Victory but it is hardly the strategy that Bush favored. Administration officials remain confident that some of the personal characteristics that have helped keep Bush so popular a his experience steadiness and Candor a will work As Well in this new period As they have in the past. And they say once he is out campaigning this fall the Case against the democrats will appear More compelling. But democrats see Bush As so eager to please everyone that he is having difficulty charting a Clear and consistent course. The result is an emboldened opposition and an increasingly restive Republican rank and file. Charting a course was easier one official said when Bush Rode with the currents. Now that he is caught in the swirl of the rapids the consequences of missteps have increased. As one Democrat put it a the Cushion is  tits was my Ion Posl