European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 12, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Emergence of missiles Ana chemical weapons in the Region a Quot no matter How the Gulf crisis is ultimately resolved it has already led to fundamental strategic changes Quot said Dore Gold a military affairs expert with the Jaffee Center for a. Strategic studies at Tel Aviv University. Quot fundamental alignments in the Region that have held for at least a decade will no longer be the same Quot he said Quot previous assumptions have been irreversibly  As the Jan. 15 United nations deadline for iraqis pullout from Kuwait nears Israel s immediate concern is to what degree it May become embroiled in a Gulf War. A. A opinions vary widely. Yitzhak Rabin of the labor party who until recently was a defense minister has warned foreign policy and military officials to Quot consider each circumstance and not act . A. ,. Shamir and his defense minister Moshe Arens have a repeatedly promised to respond forcefully against any iraqi attack regardless of How Little damage it causes. Nevertheless there appears to be common agreement in Israel that the country will not stage a preemptive attack on Iraq that iraqi missiles Are More Likely to frighten people than to cause serious military or civilian damage and that Israel will not play into Iraq s hands by turning a Gulf War into an Arab israeli conflict. A a israeli paratroopers backed by a me Kava tank storm a position during a West Bank combat exercise. A Many israeli officials  to suggesting that they Are willing to absorb a first strike from Iraq primarily because the consequences of staging an israeli preemptive strike a against Iraq could seriously   coalition of forces in saudi Arabia. A a a a a a a another Strong motivation for prior restraint is Tine belief a a a a a a that iraqis missiles Are highly inaccurate would be few in number and would cause few casualties. A israeli intelligence and military analysts say that in a first strike Iraq might be Able to launch anywhere from eight to several dozen missiles. A they also say iraqis limited number of Mobile and fixed missile launchers which israeli experts estimate at 75, Willy keep Iraq from launching More than that before it is suppressed with a retaliatory strike from Israel and the Allied forces in saudi Arabia. A a a at least six of the 23 airlines that Fly into Israel have suspended flights others have curtailed  military analyst for the Tel Aviv newspaper had Ashot Alex Fishman estimated that Iraq had  missiles Quot with three to six accompanying each Mobile. Launcher. A a. A a a a. All of these Are based on the soviet seudt3 missile with a somewhat modified technology that is still grounded Irv the 1960s, compared with new Western missiles of the. 1980s that Are aimed at Iraq from saudi Arabia and Israel. Iraq s modified scud missiles include the Hussein with a Range of 390 miles., and the Abbas with a Range of 540 Miles which can reach Israel from bases in Western Iraq. Quot they Are terribly inaccurate and carry relatively Small a payloads Quot Gold said. A a a compared with an attack aircraft which can carry up to 8,800 pounds of explosives,.the Hussein can carry Only. 1,452 pounds of explosives. In addition the Quot circular error probability of iraqi. Missiles a the distance by which  can miss its target is anywhere from 1,100 to 3,300 Yards. By contrast the . Cruise missile has an error probability of Only about 33 Yards israeli experts s by further constraints that lend to  s boasts of its ability to Quot Burn half of Israel Quot  relatively Long time that Iraq needs to prepare to launch missiles a a a a tins is so israeli experts say because the iraqis use liquid fuel which requires some time to place into the. Missiles and can launch Only five to seven Nna Sil s from a single pad. Before it needs an overhaul to ready it for further firings. A. A israelis Confidence in being Able to handle Iraq s first strike is enhanced by what is apparently the . Agreement to Supply Israel with Quot real time Quot estimates of a iraqi launching preparation from its spy satellites according to some israeli officials. . Officials in Israel refused to discuss this. Proposition but european diplomats say they Are confident that such an arrangement is operative now. In such a Case israelis say they May have As much As a two to three hour warning  missile attack More than enough to take precautionary measures. A this Confidence is enhanced by . Assurances that american troops will react with a strike against iraqi missile launching stations not Only if saudi Arabia is attacked but also if Israel is attacked. A. A in my opinion Saddam has limited capability maybe even very limited of hurting Israel a Arens said in a recent israeli radio interview. A therefore Arens said Quot we Are not in the business of launching preemptive  some israeli military analysts like the former chief of military intelligence. Aharon Yariv who Heads the Jaffee cent i in Tel Aviv go further. Quot if the attack does not cause heavy damage Quot Yariv said Quot we should not retaliate at All because the consequences of a War Are unpredictable Quot Quot what would make israeli involvement inevitable a however would be the use of chemical weapons by Iraq against Israel. Quot threatening lews with chemicals or gases changes  zen eve Schiff military Anai St of the newspaper has Aretz has warned 1. In such a Case virtually All israeli military a perts said there is no doubt that israe would respond vy.4h chemical weapons. 12, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 15