European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 17, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Marilyn Geewax financial markets paved Road to recession before my eyes were even open the other morning i was being tortured by two disc jockeys determined to Wake up their listeners with a discussion about the deepening recession. Quot their reason for the economic decline the Media according to their theory that Pesky old Media started the recession by re porting layoffs. Such stories unnerved Consumers and discouraged them from shopping. Before Long the spending slowdown caused inventories to build up which forced More manufacturers to Lay off workers and voila a a recession was born. Before you be had your first cup of Coffee this theory May sound plausible. Unfortunately the scenario they Laid out has absolutely nothing to do with the recession we re in today. The disc jockeys were describing a traditional manufacturing recession. Its True that in such a recession the Economy bogs Down when manufacturers produce More goods than customers Are willing to buy. A a a. A a a a a a but docs anyone really think Macri cans did no to spend enough Robney Over the past decade consumer shopping sprees and Plant shutdowns in the 1980s helped keep inventories and production capacity fairly lean. More importantly better computers Al Lowed companies to keep closer tabs on inventories and prevent excessive buildups. If the inventory sales ratio in manufacturing were an accurate measure of economic healthy wed be in pretty Good shape. A a. A a a but we re in terrible condition because we Are facing something much worse than a manufacturing downturn a we re in a deep financial recession. This contraction is hard to understand because its not about tires or refrigerators or soap. The 1991 recession is about  of paper and electronic blips that zoom around the Globe moving from Bankers and brokers in new York to Tokyo to London and so on. In a financial recession there Are . Rosenthal Ula Tive buildups in inventories but the excess is in Bonds not tangible goods. There Are declines in demand but the drops in new orders come from big borrowers such As office building developers not from Little shoppers. The United states Hasni to had a financial recession fora Long time but we have endured banking scares in the past perhaps the worst was the panic of 1907 when several big but under capitalized Trust companies died historically financial recessions led to drops in Industrial activity because businesses had a Tough time getting credit. Today a financial disarray was caused by Many factors foreign investors fuelled a speculative Boom in real estate and financial assets junk Bonds allowed companies to borrow More than Banks could have Lent them deregulation of Banks. And thrifts allowed them to make risky Loans while still getting cheap Deposit insurance from Uncle Sam. Whether the general recession we re entering now will be mild or disastrous is Tough to predict. If Congress makes great Progress in banking Reform if Oil prices done to shoot higher if the Federal Reserve does a fantastic Job of managing credit a if everything Falls into place we  out of this just Fine. But we surely wont help ourselves by blaming shoppers and reporters for our problems. Congress and the White House allowed our financial system to get out of whack a and that a where the blame has to rest. V. A Cox news service a eases the new world order was born in Washington on sept. 11,1990, and was shot dead in the. Streets of Vilnius last sunday. This May seem a sad thing to proclaim As the United states prepares to fight a War from which this new order . Posed to come Forth. But the new world order was an idea conceived in delusion and falsehood which could have destroyed the very purposes of fighting the War. A a. A for the clarity of mind essential to fight a War it is far better that it happened now. The truth can help combat to end in a peace of Hope not Lead to another War. That is the gift of the people of the capital of  his september address to Congress president Bush said that out of the persian Gulf crisis a new american objective could emerge a a new world order Quot Freer from the threat of Tenor stronger in the Pursuit of Justice More secure in the quest for peace a a i which All nations could Prosper and live in Harmony. Instantly the phrase became one of those things that is never precisely defined but is accepted As so pure of purpose that even to ask what in gods name it Means would he a Nasty thing to do. So almost nobody did. But it became Clear As time went on. In Bush a mind the new world order was founded on a convergence of goals and interests Between the United states and the soviet Union so Strong and permanent that they would work As a team through the . Security Council. The other major Powers that held veto Power including. Communist China. Would be counted on for cooperation. And it also became obvious that after the persian Gulf crisis the Middle Eastern Branch of the new world order was to be a nato Type Alliance Between the United states and the Arab nations under the soviet american Umbra log. If Israel behaved Doc Lely and agreed to the. Creation of another palestinian state in addition to Jordan it would be allowed to exist for the time being a but of course never As a partner in the Middle Eastern order. A naturally there were some prices for the new world order. Nothing could he done to support the soviet democratic movements that Felt Mikhail Gorbachev was lighting to save the soviet system not end  the. American Promise of support for Baltic Freedom had to be betrayed. The other Independence movements trying to break out of the evil Empire Domestic department had to be shoved aside. Every sign of repression by the Gorbachev government had to be ignored. All this did not prove very difficult for an administration that showed its attitude toward troublesome anti communist Freedom movements by moving As quickly As possible to Patch things up with the butchers of Beijing after Tiana men Square. And of course to bring about the mid die Eastern version of the new world order the United states had to accept As its partners Arab regimes that ruled through terrorism a Domestic or International or both. A Hafez Al Assad today another Saddam Hussein tomorrow. After Vilnius Washington is shocked for the moment anyway. American journalists and academics who fully supported betrayal of the Baltic now weep for them. But wait a soon they will be Back justifying themselves and giving us terrific advice again on How to Deal with the Kremlin without getting it upset forget them. The people of Vilnius dead and alive Are showing  truth a the greatest of gifts to  facing War. By a. The truth now is what it always has been. Appeasement always fails. Tyrants always betray free nations. Dictatorships Are perpetual threats to the United states because they can exist Only through terror and War. Free nations and Peoples Are our friends. We need each other. Appeasement always fails. The gift of Vilnius should not bring despair or cynicism. It brings Freedom from falsehood and cant. With that gift we can see that our allies in the soviet Union Are hot the frightened men of the Kremlin but the democratic movements a in Moscow in the Baltic in Armenia everywhere in the crumbling Empire. In the Middle East one Day Saddam Hussein will go Down. But if we place our Hopes for the future on the corrupt despotic Arab regimes that Rule now we will betray the people of those nations and ourselves. Or. Bush please Don t you see that Only free governments and free people can create a truly secure world order a open to All who oppose tyranny that is the meaning of Vilnius. It should be the meaning of Jan. 15, 1991, and what follows in War or peace. A c new York times the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government