European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 23, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                War in the Gulf when the smoke clears planning for peace what will . Role be by Thomas l. Friedman new York times t takes a Long time to plan a War and it takes an even longer time to design a peace. If the anti Iraq coalition a emerges victorious from this conflict some officials have begun to ask what will the postwar Gulf look like and How Long can the United states expect to remain a heavily involved. With such an outcome americans military and political. Influence in the Region could be greater than at any other time in the postwar Era. A. A when Saddam Hussein said recently that the soviet. Union had pulled a Quot disappearing act Quot he made the telling. Point that the United states was the Only remaining superpower. ,. Americans greatest enemy after the War ends May Well be the illusions that naturally attend Victory a illusions about How much any outside Power can  ancient Region that has so Long defied reordering. A senior administration officials Are the first to admit they  relatively Little thinking about the shape of peace in the Gulf a a a a a a a a a. This has been largely because the focus of All their Energy since aug. 2 has been on building the diplomatic and military coalition to confront Iraq.,. Now that diplomacy has failed and it has come to War though administration planners have thought about it at least enough to conclude that Quot Victory Quot in their eyes will consist of at least five elements. First is the total destruction of Iraq s military infrastructure weapons development factories missile Sites and As Many tanks air planes and artillery pieces As possible. The goal is to Render Iraq unable to project Power. Beyond its Borders for years to come. A the unprovoked iraqi missile attacks on israeli cities last. Week drove Home the Point to anyone who might have doubted it that Iraq under its present leadership is an outlaw state that will Stop at nothing and therefore must be destroyed militarily a irrespective of whether it gets out of. Kuwait. -. A. ,.a \ \ athe second Clement of any Victory officials say is a total and Complete iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait so that the 12 . Resolutions calling for this outcome will have been put into effect. Historians May question whether it was Ever right or the Bush administration to make the Quot liberation of Kuwait Quot a prime War aim instead of focusing exclusively on dismantling Iraq s offensive military capabilities which after All were the real threat to stability in the Gulf and therefore the real threat to . Interests. Nevertheless., having made  of the Emir to a his throne in Kuwait  objective the United states cannot now Content  devastating Iraq and simply ignoring the Fate of Kuwait the credibility of the United nations and the United states is at stake the third element administration officials say would have to be a new stable balance of Power historically there have been two regional Powers and two regional Powers Only in the Gulf Iran and Iraq these Are the Only countries in the neighbourhood that have a Large enough population with sufficient economic resources and educational advancement to be Able to develop potent armies. Saudi Arabia for example has the Money and the advanced weapons but unlike Iraq and Iran it could never put a million men under arms. Given these realities the rules of geopolitics in that Region have been very simple. When Iran and Iraq Are fighting each other everyone else is relaxed. When one is. More dominant than the other everyone else must live in fear. A. A a a a a a a a a. A v a a \. A a following this War again assuming Victory by the.  coalition a some outside Power is going to have to sit indefinitely on the horizon to make sure that Iran does not take advantage of the Power vacuum in Iraq to reassert dominance. A. And that Power will have to make certain that a your feed and embittered Iraq does not lash out at its neighbors in. Ways that might not necessarily be life threatening but could nevertheless be highly destabilizing a guess who that is going to be?.secretary of state James a. Baker Iii has already warned repeatedly that the. United states would have to help develop some Quot Security v Structure Quot in the aftermath of War. A in its Early stages this Structure would have to involve. . Ground troops air units and naval units. Washington would Hope to remove its ground forces from saudi Arabia and from the Kuwait iraqi Border As soon As possible and have them replaced either by an Arab league Force a Force from the Gulf cooperation Council or a . Peacekeeping Force with the americans sitting offshore on naval vessels. Analysis . Officials once thought of this Quot Structure Quot almost like a Middle Eastern nato but the last few months have sobered them. They have Learned  it is to build an anti Iraq coalition from shy Arab states and their shifting alliances. A. A. So rather than a single Structure . Officials now envisage that the process of counterbalancing Iraq and a Iran will involve bilateral relationships Between the United states and saudi Arabia Between saudi Arabia and other Arab countries such As Egypt and Between the Gulf states themselves. \ a. V the plan is to develop a muscle that is militarily Strong enough to Check Iran and Iraq while politically invisible a enough not to leave its members open to charges that they Are lackeys of the West. This network of alliances would Haye to keep Iraq weak enough not to threaten its neighbors but not so weak that Syria Turkey or Iran begin to prey upon it. Another element of this military balance Baker has already said would involve a . Arms embargo to keep Iraq from acquiring chemical biological or nuclear weapons or missiles. The fourth element of Victory in the american View would be the restoration of Oil prices to reasonable Levels. Since the Onset of the Gulf War crude Oil prices have fallen to their lowest Levels since Midsummer a below $20 a barrel. A economists say that this fall in Oil prices if it is maintained should restore consumer spending Power and generate funds for business investment As Well As give the Federal Reserve More room to reduce interest rates in an Effort to fight the recession. Victory in Oil terms is very Complex Quot said Thomas a. Petrie chairman of Petrie Parkman amp co., a Denver base Oil company. In the one hand he said it is important tha Iraq be militarily Defeated so to cannot intimidate saudi Arabia and Kuwait into pushing Oil prices Way up. On the other hand it is important that saudi Arabia and Kuwait d not feel  to overproduce after the War in order to punish Iraq by keeping prices Low and Iraq out of the Market. -. Finally one of  of Victory As opposed to Tow fruits of it will be stepped up pressures on the United states to address the palestinian israeli dispute. A politically speaking All of those Arab states that have now aligned themselves with the West against Saddam Hussein will be under pressure to prove that they Are As concerned about the iraqi occupation of Kuwait As they a about israeli occupation of the West Bank. But settling the palestinian israeli dispute has already been made More difficult by the unprovoked iraqi missile strikes on Israel and the Way in which it was applauded b palestinians in Jordan and other arabs around the Middle East Quot a / a a a Quot Saddam a missile attack and the palestinian response has undone everything positive which the last three year of palestinian israeli contacts might have produced Quot Sai the israeli political theorist Yaron Ezra i he added Quot the conflict is once again about existence not about where the Border Between us should be. To sit Here in my House in a sealed room looking at my elderly a father my wife and my children through a Gas mask and 1 knowing that the palestinians Are applauding Means to re that there is no future for coexistence Here. It undercuts t every palestinian claim that they Are prepare do live with Israel. Israelis will feel that they owe palestinians nothing j in the end Victory in this War will Likely produce Little j euphoria among the victors Only Relief. For the arabs it if be a Relief that the old status quo has been restored Only with a More stable balance of Power. And for american soldiers it will be a Relief that they  this Region j Page 14 a a the stars and stripes wednesday Jin