European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 25, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday january 25, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 11leslie h. Gel Israel Syria hold postwar cards for peace contrary to frequent charges Bush administration officials Are thinking about the postwar peace process. The direction of their brainstorming will displease knee Jerk advocates of an International Mideast conference and give Yasser Arafat a  diplomatic body blow. The ideas and they Are Only ideas at this Point Are grandiose and sound tinny to a political car. But they Spring from the shocks of War and the Power of dreams a the stuff that breakthroughs Are made of. A one track encased in Region wide plans for economic cooperation and arms control would try to Clear the Way for negotiations Between two of the Region s most bitter enemies Israel and Syria. This regional Effort and not a Mideast conference would be the diplomatic starting Point. The second and parallel track would be Laid by a generous israeli offer to West Bank and Gaza strip palestinians for direct talks. The aim would be to make it tempting and possible for palestinian locals to split from Plo Headquarters in Tunis. These tracks could be set whatever Saddam Hussein s Fate although his Early retirement to the Post of color commentator for can would clearly Benefit any peace process. The most immediate obstacle to the two tracks is not Saddam Hussein but his now popular demand for an International conference. Such a conclave would produce Only endless haggling Over its own Powers and guarantee israelis isolation and intransigence. But administration officials know that the United slates cannot simply discard the. Idea. A a a a. A  a Britain France and several Arab countries Are paying dues in War and will expect it As their Pound of peace. The Challenge for Washington will be to convince them that the conference might  useful purpose if convened later rather than sooner. ,. The right partners to Start negotiations arc Iraci and Syria under the Rubric of a Mideast wide conference on military and economic cooperation. They hold the key to future stability in the Region. A a the Pivotal question is syrian president Hafez Al As sad a willingness to play. His historical instinct would be to reach for undisputed leadership of the Radical Arab world whatever Saddam Hussein a position after the  a.  Quot a a. A a a a a a a. It. A. But Assad is neither a romantic nor Ai masochist. He is a consummate strategist whose dispatch of syrian troops to defend saudi Arabia shows an appreciation of new strategic realities. He no longer has his soviet military protector and is without funds. To rebuild his shattered Economy he can turn Only to saudi Arabia. The saudis can use this dependence to nudge him toward talks with Iraci. And it is to Israel that he must turn to fulfil his dream of restoring the Golan Heights to syrian sovereignty. A prime minister Yitzhak Shamir shares the syrian dictators unromantic personality yet he and his fellow hard liners make no secret of their willingness to probe Damascus on peace. They also know that if Assad would Deal with them the fearful saudis and jordanians would be close behind. But none of these Arab states would dare talk directly to Israel unless Shamir opened the second track for negotiations with the palestinians. With All Palestin ians in a state of Shock and disarray the moment could be Ripe for an imaginative israeli initiative. Arafat chose to Back Iraq and whatever Saddam Hussein a future the Plo Leader and his organization will be losers. They will get no More Money from the saudis and neither Israel nor Washington will let him Back into the negotiating picture. The Arafat Blunder creates the possibility of israelis doing what it has always desired a ignoring Arafat and negotiating directly with the palestinians in the occupied territories. But no new group of palestinian leaders will risk stepping Forward unless Israel makes them an. Offer they cannot refuse at a minimum this Means the right to organize their own elections and government and not foreclosing their dream of a palestinian state. Israeli official s have been hinting at similar thoughts. For they have a dream of their own a a. Absorbing a  generation of israelis from the soviet Union a dream even Many israeli hard Heads now sense will die unless palestinians Are reconciled. Historically the Power of Middle Eastern dreams has derived from their single mindedness and  the separate dreams of arabs and israelis lend themselves Well to War not Compromise. But by ruminating on How to use the Gulf crisis to retract these dreams administration officials Are onto something bold and attractive. C new Yolk Limo atom Wicker too Little said about what happens after War a week of televised War has demonstrated the technical wizardry of the networks and can the dedication of their correspondents the Glamour of High tech combat and the armed forces skill at it a As Well As the Pentagon a controlling Hanc on information. One consequence has been the emergence of a new kind of National hero a not a Brave human being but a bloodless machine the Patriot anti missile missile. For probably the first time m history the courage of men in Battle was eclipsed a at least in the telling a by the radars and warheads they had fabricated. Ultimately however evidence that humans Are still the fodder and debris of War got past the Pentagon a big brotherly Pool reports. It was provided by iraqi television in its film of captured american and Allied fliers forced into obviously false apologies. To at least one viewers Eye however no dead bodies of any nationality have yet appeared on Home screens. To that same Eye. A it laser rated As any by a War televised while it happens some unfortunate signals were discernible in the saturation coverage. Most obviously by the end of the first week the Pentagon was beginning tej up l Back from its glowing claims a necessarily unchallenged by free ranging correspondents a of Success in an air War apparently w aged by magnificent flying machines against unmanned bunkers. T1ie Retreat May have been too Little too late. It remains to be seen whether Public opinion conditioned in the first Days to expect a Quick bloodless Victory Over unworthy opposition will turn on its creators if a Long bloody ground War develops in the desert or House to House in Kuwait City and Baghdad. A a a Quot. / a that is problematic. But other messages were conveyed or concealed in round the clock coverage featuring the optimistic assessments of retired generals and military minded academics. A in the unceasing barrage of deserved condemnation of Saddam Hussein too. Little attention had been paid to his missile attacks on Israel a until tuesdays deadly assault. Previously ineffective at the Points of explosion and in the politics of the a 11 i Anee they nevertheless suggested ominously that Saddam Hussein Aims to fight on All fronts and to the bitter end. The attacks fulfilled his pledge to hit Israel supported his pose As an Arab David against the Western Goliath and May yet hinder conduct of the War. They surely will complicate  relations. A no experts have been brought on to discuss the costs of desert storm a Esli mated at $2.5 billion a month when it was still desert shield a or the question of whether the same Money. Or some part of it might not have been better used to meet . Domestic needs from Educa lion to infrastructure not to mention the deficit or the savings and loan scandal. Mayors governors and University presidents All Over the nation Are scraping and cutting to make ends meet while the richest nation in the world expends its wealth in Pursuit of the second Devilish dictator it has targeted for extinction in just Over a year. A a. A some but not enough not ice has been taken of the fact that the victors of world War ii Are shedding blood and treasure not least on behalf of the losers Germany and Japan now the world s most prosperous nations. Neither shows much gratitude or mercy in Trade relations and both Benefit from Mideast Gil More than do the United states Britain and France. A in the welter of self congratulation not Only on see Mihey Quick Victory but also on doing a what a i to be Donea it seems largely to have been Lor Otien. That . Troops originally were deployed to saudi Arabia Tor strictly act Gnu a purposes. Or that president Bush him Elf first proclaimed blockade and embargo As proper counters to iraqi aggression and that these were in place for less than six months. Or that the United states pushed for he Security Council deadline now cited As having made War necessary Anc that Bush demanded Iraq s unconditional withdrawal from Kuwait a the equivalent of unconditional surrender As the sole test of w Hether there would he War. And who is talking amid awed demonstrations of american technology and fervent paeans to immediate Victory about a settlement and the wars aftereffects will the Middle last he More or less orderly More or less attuned to the West once Western might has been asserted will Israel be Freer of threat or the Region s Oil flow in vexed to the world these questions All discussed too Little if at All seem As relevant As the latest pm Point bombing strike and More important. Do a yuck a Titt Jos the opinions expressed in the columns arid cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to he considered As representing the news of the stars and stripes or the unite states