European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - February 20, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Wednesday february 20, 1991 the stars and stripes b Page 17ntoneymattejsj today a tip feb. 18 feb. 19 1961 1.9525 .1.4838 1.4875 ,.5 0445 5.0755 .1.6635 1 679 .30.53 30.6775 .1,112 95 1.119.40 .1.2725 a. 1.278 .158.40 159.52 .3,144 70 3,177.60 .,.3.7503 3.7503 .92 35 .92.92 .129.85 130.761.1525 1.154 .10.4075 10.485 .5.783 5.82 .5.6855 5.728 All military personnel whose income has been reduced because of the crisis in the Middle East should Contact their creditors in writing. Explain the situation and Many will arrange special payment schedules or suspend payments on Bills until the crisis is Over according to the san Diego based National Center for financial education. For reservists especially the Center also suggests placing a Short statement in credit reporting agencies files explaining the situation. Early action could help avoid unnecessary problems with creditors later on., conversion rates London up tuesdays closing rates for the . Dollar to other currencies. Figures Are expressed in dollars to the British Pound other local currencies in dollars Gold was quoted at $363.25 an ounce Silver at $3.74. Feb. 18 British Pound. .1.961 German Mark. 1.4838 French franc. ,.5.0445 dutch Guilder. Belgian franc. Italian lira. Swiss franc. Greek drachma. Turkish lira. Saudi arabian Riyal. Spanish peseta. Portuguese escudo ,.,. Canadian Dollar. Austrian Schilling norwegian Krone. .,.5.783 danish Krone ,.,-. 5.6855 these Are unofficial rates As reported by wire service and banking sources and they Are listed to give some idea of daily currency fluctuations. R the Only official rate concerns the Sale of German Marks to . Personnel for personal use and this will be 1,45 wednesday based on tuesdays noontime Price fixing. Northwest slashes fares Eagan Minn. Up Northwest airlines has reduced Domestic fares As part of a Coupon promotion for travel involving flights originating in 14 Southern states. Northwest said monday that coupons appearing this week in daily newspapers Are Good for $150 off round trip fares of $500 or More $ 100 off round trip fares of $350 to $499, and $50 off round trip fares of $175 to $349. To qualify for the discounts passengers must Purchase tickets before april 19 and travel before june 9. Spokesmen for american airlines and United airlines said monday that the carriers were studying the Northwest cuts and whether to match them. The Northwest promotion is the latest in a round of fare cuts from carriers seeking to overcome a dismal Winter travel season brought about by the slowing Economy and fears of terrorism. America West offered a 50 percent discount on its Domestic round trip flights during a three Day period during the first a Cek of the month. Several carriers matched that promotion. Troubled pan am then offered a $238 round trip fare on Domestic flights and several of its International routes on the condition that a passenger make a separate flight before March 1. Northwest and american matched that  expect recession to end by August maybe by Louis Uchitelle the new York times a a p. A a a. _ a. _ a o a majority of the nations forecasters Are insisting that the recession will end by August Basing their optimism on the behaviour of past recessions. By their own acknowledgement however the forecasters Are playing Down the special troubling features of this recession that could prove them wrong. The big Rise in Stock prices in recent weeks has reinforced the forecasters View that this recession the ninth since world War ii will be among the shortest lasting less than a year. Blue Chip economic indicators which polls 50 prominent forecasters each month shows that their consensus prediction in february is for healthy economic growth beginning in the third Quarter a assuming the persian Gulf War ends by april 1. A a people Are behaving As if there is something objective out there making the Dow Jones Industrial average go up but its just animal spirits a said Paul Samu Elson the Nobel laureate in economic science. A the forecasters Are taking the average length of the four Mildest my feeling is that the recession will be deeper and will last longer than the consensus forecast  investment House vice chairman Edward s. Hyman or. Recessions since world War 11 and assigning it to this  sheer Chance the optimists May turn out to be Correct. In fact the consensus forecast has had an uncanny Knack for predicting the beginning of past recoveries. A a a. But Samuelson and other economists contend that the outcome of this recession is harder than others to forecast because it departs radically from the postwar Norm in three main features the huge quantities of unpaid Bank Loans the resulting crisis for the nations Banks and the cutback in lending. Economists say they do not know whether the lending cutback stems mainly from the reluctance of Banks to lend and risk More problem Loans or from the reluctance of Consumers and businesses to borrow and spend during hard times. Whatever the dynamics the Economy cannot move from recession to recovery without a revival of lending and the increased spending that Loans make possible. A a a a we know that the credit Stringency problem exists but it is nearly impossible to anticipate whether it is a major obstacle to recovery or a lesser problem Quot said Stephen Mcnees an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Edward Yardeni chief economist at Prudentia Bache securities inc., the investment House is among the optimists and his weekly forecasts Are mailed to Many in the Media As Well As to investors. A my ultimate Job is to forecast the Economy a Impact on the Stock and Bond markets to help people make Money a he said. A so far i have stressed that the Federal Reserve is committed to getting us out of a recession by lowering interest rates and that drives up Stock prices. A what i have not discussed is whether the feds commitment will work. If the fed gets the Federal funds rate Down to 5 percent and the Economy is not Only not improving but still deteriorating then ill switch my forecast and Well get out of stocks. But i will have served my custom-crswell.�?�. A Phe Federal funds rate the interest rate at which Banks lend Money to each other determines the level of Many other Short term rates including interest rates for Auto Loans and Many mortgages the fed has been reducing the funds rate by a Quarter of a Point at a time since last fall and on feb. 1 drove Down the rate by half a percentage Point an unusually Large amount to its current level of about 6 percent. A the thing that really turned the Corner in terms of forecasting optimism was that feb. 1 move by the fed a said Stephen s. Roach a senior economist at Morgan Stanley amp co. But some economists argue that even if interest rates get Low enough to revive lending the recession still might not end this summer or even this year for that matter. A a a a a a a a a. A. A. They cite problems such As the weak real estate and construction markets a Sharp decline in consumer spending in recent weeks and the growing budget deficit which makes the government unwilling to spend for Public works and other projects that stimulate economic activity. A my feeling is that the recession will be deeper and will last longer than the consensus forecast believes Quot said Edward s. Hyman jr., a vice chairman of the investment House of . Lawrence Morgan Grenfell inc. By contrast the consensus forecast which is shared by the Bush administration draws heavily on experience. The past teaches that recessions usually end when falling interest rates revive consumer spending and inventories of unsold goods Are slim. Low inventories mean that when spending starts to grow again production can be quickly stepped up and people rehired without having to wait for stockpiled merchandise to be sold. Consumer Confidence also played a role in most of the eight other recessions since world War ii and the consensus forecast assumes that Confidence will rebound once the persian Gulf War ends. . Truck Van sales plummet by John Holusha new York times a tote woes of the Domestic automobile Industry Are being aggravated by a Sharp decline in the sales of some of its most profitable. Trucks and vans sales of Light trucks which include pickup trucks Yans and sports Utility vehicles declined 7 percent in the fourth Quarter of last year while automobile sales Rose 1 percent in the most recent 10-Day sales period sales of Light trucks were off 31.2 percent. Worse As far As the Domestic automakers Are concerned the decline was concentrated in Large vehicles which have Little Competition from imports and thus have larger profit margins. A there is two to three times More prof it in a full size truck or Van than in a car a said Maryann n. Keller an analyst with Furman Selz inc. A so losing a truck Sale is like losing three car  a. In the fourth Quarter sales of full size vans declined 19 percent sales of Large sports Utility vehicles such As the Ford Bronco and Chevrolet Blazer declined 52 percent and purchases of Large pickup trucks were off 9 percent according to declining truck sales the Domestic Auto sales have been further aggravated by a decline in truck sales. Full size vans source new York times statistics compiled by Joel to i coff a sales analyst with Ford motor co. Sales of mini vans meanwhile increased 4 percent and those of compact pickup trucks were up 9 percent. These trends have largely continued this year Pitcoff said with the exception of minivan sales which Are being measured against relatively High sales a year ago stimulated by financial incentives. Analysts and Auto dealers attribute the weakness to the deteriorating Economy concerns about the future direction of gasoline prices and the reluctance of Consumers to make Large discretionary purchases. Quot the slump in the construction Industry is holding Down demand for pickups and vans that Are used As commercial vehicles Keller observed