European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - March 2, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday March 2, t991 the stars and stripes Page 5 in the Gulf Saddam still Hopes he can turn defeat into political stalemate by Glenn Frankel the Washington Post London a battered and bloodied iraqi president Saddam Hussein clings to Power hoping to survive by turning a military debacle into a political stalemate with the inadvertent help of president Bush and other foes according to Arab and Western analysts Here. They say his Basic strategy is to consolidate the remnants of his still sizable army and internal Security forces while seeking to convince his people that what is now at stake is not his personal survival but the survival of Iraq. His grip on Power they say will rely on a combination of state coercion and grudging Public acceptance during the next crucial few months. Saddam needs scapegoats they be Lieve whom he can blame for a defeat he cannot admit to yet cannot disguise. If his past actions provide any clues he might accuse some of his top military commanders of betrayal or cowardice and seek their executions. But if they Nake the first move it could set off a confrontation that brings Down the regime or plunges the country into civil War some analysts warn. A strategy of confrontation in moments of desperation has worked for Saddam before analysts say most notably in 1982 when Iraq came close to defeat in its War with Iran. He reportedly foiled several coup attempts executed several rivals a one offending Cabinet ministers body reputedly was carved up and returned to his wife in a Canvas bag a and carried on. This time some analysts believe Saddam May try using the expanded War f if history is any guide he will Appeal to iraqi nationalism to survive just As he did against Iran author Dilip Hiro on Saddam s plans Aims of the Allied coalition and the Public Call by president Bush for Sac darts downfall As levers to bring together a frightened disgruntled iraqi Public. A a if history is any guide he will Appeal to iraqi nationalism to survive just As he did against Iran a said Dilip Hiro author of the longest War a popular history of the Iran Iraq conflict. A calling for Saddam a overthrow May help strengthen his hand with his own people.�?�. But Many analysts believe that this time such a strategy cannot work. They argue that Iraq internally is in far More desperate shape than it Ever was during the eight year War with Iran. Many iraqis appear numbed and disoriented by the massive military bombardment they have undergone. Mindful of Saddam a prior successes in putting Down coups punishing foes and staying alive few seem prepared to take the Lead in caller Ming the regime. But British foreign office sources say they have received unconfirmed reports of demonstrations and unrest in Baghdad one report asserted that a recent protest outside the Headquarters of the ruling baath party ended m the killing of a number of people by Security police. There arc also signs that some of the mechanisms of state terror that have kept iraqis in line for a generation Are eroding. Reports from Western correspondents in Baghdad contain More open criticism of the War and a sense of Public despair which suggests that people Are More willing to speak out openly. Throughout the Iran Iraq War the government regularly rounded up students and factory workers and ordered mass demonstrations of support for Saddam to steel Public will against the iranian Challenge. Saddam still retains enough soldiers tanks and artillery to hold an impressive a a Victory March through the Center of the capital notes Christopher Lee defense analyst for British broadcasting corp. Radio. L it this time Public rallies Are thought to be less Likely because they might easily turn against the government As they did in Romania in 1989. A the has the tapes of Ceausescu a a execution a said a British Diplomat despite reported incidents of dissent Many analysts believe Baghdad remains the Center of Saddam a Power and one of the most unlikely places for a rebellion to begin. More Likely would be a revolt that begins among army units in More Remote areas such As Kurdistan in the North or Basra in the South where Saddam Saccu Rity apparatus May no longer dominate. Chalabi said senior military officers Jave contacted opposition leaders and have even discussed the shape of a future Iraq and what their role might be. He and other analysts believe these officers expect Saddam to hold them responsible for iraqis defeat and that they have no intention of being lured into a face to face meeting with him. A the May try to execute some senior officers if he has time but they know that a said Efraim Karsh defense analyst at Kings College Here and coauthor of a forthcoming biography of Saddam. Karsh said Saddam is trying the Sanie strategy that failed him so far in the crisis a a frantic search for allies among the soviet Union Iran or the Arab world. If the Allied coalition lingers too Long in Southern Iraq or makes too Many demands on the iraqi people Karsh added Saddam May yet win some outside support. But internal support is the key to  continued grip on Power some analysts said adding that the men closest to Saddam could be the instruments of his downfall. A the Best bet is a Putsch from within the Security apparatus a said Philip Robbins Middle East specialist at the Royal Institute for International affairs. A they Are the people who realize the  Are going to keep the pressure up until he goes. In the stars and stripes 10 year Sago March 2,1981 seventh army training come officials confirmed that four crates of c-4 plastic explosives and one antitank mine Are missing following the discovery that intruders gained entry to a restricted ammunition depot at the  trolled training area in Wil Flecken West Germany. 20 year Sago March 2,1971 a an Early morning bomb blast ripped up an Interior Section of the . Capitol a Senate Wing 30 minutes after a caller warned of the explosion and said it was to retaliate for the invasion of Laos. The blast caused extensive a damage but no injuries. 30 years ago March 2,1961 a an american Soldier who fled to Czechoslovakia in 1959, crossed the czech Aust Nan Boarder and asked austrian authorities for political Asylum police said pvt. John Witt 25, of Springfield tenn., turned up at the austrian Boarder Point at Amund. 40 years ago flags of Freedom citizens of Kuwait wave their county a Flag from atop a Cap City. Despite a ravaged to Unity kuwaitis continue to Cele Turc Dali tank in not it of the National Assembly in Kuwait brate the liberation of the a country. March 2,1951 the soviet Union agreed to a preliminary big four meeting next week with the United states Britain and France