European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 6, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Monday malt 1 the stars and stripes Page 13? commentary Arnold Sawislak Vietnam syndrome now haunts Bush in Gulf there is an old poker saying a. Right. In. For a dime in for a Dollar a that ii tit express the quandary president Bush faces in the Middle East. Bush would like very much to remove every american military person from the Gulf As soon As possible and until some of the chickens he had something to do with hatching began coming Home to Roost that a probably what would have happened. The president said . Armed forces were in the Gulf to help rid Kuwait of its iraqi occupiers and that when that was accomplished americans had no More business there. To prove it he ordered . Forces to Stop shooting and chasing Saddam Hussein s troops just about As soon As they had been driven out of the emirate. Some people reportedly including Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf thought Bush called a halt to the fighting too soon. These folks a and they included some of Bush a strongest supporters for going to War a would have preferred to go All the Way to Baghdad if necessary to oust Saddam Hussein from Power. But Bush Felt he had to demonstrate that the United states was not land or Power hungry in the Region and hoped that iraqis neighbors or its own people would Deal with Saddam. Well the neighbors weren to about to try their Luck against the still partially intact iraqi army and the people a shiite moslem in the South and kurd in the North a were beaten Back by the Republican guard when they revolted. Had Bush not suggested that iraqis themselves overthrow Saddam he probably could have gotten away saying that he was sorry the separate revolutions did no to succeed but there was nothing the United states could do about it. But he did invite the uprisings and when they failed and produced a tidal wave of civilian refugees Bush was on the spot. His critics were Quick to say Bush was responsible for the desperate kurdish refugees and it was up to him to help them. Thus Bush who got a fast Victory in liberating Kuwait now is in danger of getting stuck with the difficult kurdish question a the dime was easy the Dollar May be a lot tougher. What All of this is about of course is Vietnam. Bush and every other National politician is aware that the United states got bogged Down there because it became enmeshed in a civil War. A a a there was no doubt that outside communist countries were supporting Hanoi but the War there was not a classic Case of one established nation being invaded by a neighbor. The North and the South in Vietnam were products of Post world War ii skirmishing by the communist and capitalist blocs just like North and South Korea and East and West Germany. Only the two Korea still Are apart and even they May come together eventually. In any event Bush did. Not want the United states to get caught in another Vietnam which destroyed at least two presidencies and traumatized a generation of americans. Whether that will happen now that Bush has started to help the kurd May be discernible by the time the country puts on its big desert Storti Victory Celebration in june. Quot. Mlod press International. Tom Wicker Economy has Bush singing two distinct tunes at Home the Bush administration is singing one tune about the economic Outlook but abroad its following another Melody. To americans out of jobs or looking for customers Washington is predicting a Quick upturn but to the the group of seven nations its pleading a need for action to stimulate economic growth. _ the optimistic Domestic message is not surprising. Economic recovery is a slow process and George Bush does not want to find himself still presiding Over a recession deep into the 1992 election year. The More Confidence in the Economy that he and his aides can instill in Consumers and businessmen the More Likely they Are to buy and invest and get things moving again. The Independent Federal Reserve Board obviously has been acting on the Assumption the recession is not Over and that the Economy still needs stimulation. It has just reduced the discount rate what it charges Banks for Loans by a half Point arid the Federal funds rate what Banks charge each other for Short term Loans by a Quarter Point. The major Banks got the message and quickly followed with a Cut from 9 percent to 8,5 percent in the prime rate. These Concrete actions Are in notable contrast to repeated statements of optimism from the administration and from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan suggesting the recession will be Short and shallow with recovery beginning this summer. Even on top of the Federal Reserve rate cuts the fed professed to see scattered signs that the Low Point is near. Despite a slight improvement in april unemployment figures less sanguine observers May find those signs hard to discern in the decline in March of seven of the 11 components in the governments primary forecasting Index. The Overall Index did Rise slightly but Only because of an increase in consumer expectations at the end of the persian Gulf War a an increase that later surveys showed to be Short lived. Some analysts Are not certain anyway that lower interest rates will be enough to bring the Economy out of a recession that is beginning to look As if it will be More severe and Long lasting than Washington at least has been predicting. They believe the recession is attributable to numerous factors other than High interest rates and that relatively minor reductions in those rates while helpful will not do the Job. Unemployment though it declined from 6.8 percent to 6.6 percent in the latest Survey continues to be a worrisome problem. Companies everywhere Are laying off workers general dynamics for instance announced big layoffs last week despite its participation in a new air Force fighter plane contract but unemployment is less affected by High interest rates than by Low consumer demand which in turn depresses employers willingness to maintain much less expand production and work forces. The administration appears to be relying however entirely on Federal Reserve rate cuts for counter cyclical action. A Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady meanwhile Sang the administrations overseas Melody at the group of seven meeting in Washington. He argued that Britain Japan France Italy Canada and particularly Germany needed to Cut interest rates and stimulate growth lest the world slip into economic stagnation. Not least among his concerns and properly so Are . Exports. _ slumping economies elsewhere would mean declining . Ability to sell products abroad that in turn would contribute to a longer and deeper . Recession. This argument apparently was undercut however by Bradys contradictory singing of the administrations Domestic tune a that the. . Recession is coming to an end and recovery is about to begin. A at least partially because of these conflicting themes he got nowhere in his efforts to bring about lower rates in Germany and Europe a although some experts see the possibility that the japanese might soon lower theirs. But if actions speak louder than words even in Washington the feds interest rate reductions and Bradys futile appeals to the group of seven can Only mean the administration is More concerned about the Economy than its willing to admit to american voters. The new York times. The opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government