European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 3, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Tuesday september 3, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary Robert Burn celebrated arms treaties May be worthless the Ink was barely dry on two arms control treaties when the soviet Union began unravelling in a failed coup. What happens to those treaties now some . Analysts say the two pacts a which have been completed but not ratified a May have to be revised and possibly reconsidered in Light of the upheaval. A there will perhaps have to be some new negotiations to adjust terms of the conventional forces in Europe treaty the first formal agreement to reduce nonnuclear weapons throughout Europe since the Start of the cold War said Raymond Garthoff an arms control specialist at the Brookings institution. The Senate has already held a round of ratification hearings on the cafe pact and was expected to give its approval sometime this fall. But some analysts believe new uncertainty about control of the soviet armed forces will delay the Deal. What if for example republics that become Independent of the Kremlin decide they want to raise their own armies the cafe Deal As written makes no allowance for tanks or other military equipment under the control of any soviet republics. What about the treaty a inspection rules republics that become Independent might be required to sign and a it Rove the treaty in order to provide the Egal authority for International inspectors to Cross their Borders. The Case of the cafe Deal is made particularly Complex by the fact that it was signed by 22 nations. A these treaties Are going to face harsh scrutiny if not a mandate for revision a said Frank j. Gaffney a former senior Pentagon official Ana director of the Center for Security policy a private group that is sceptical of arms control. Other analysts were More  a i think Well go ahead As before a said Stan Norris a weapons specialist at the natural resources defense Council a private environmental advocacy group. A to go and tinker around. Does no to seem to be Worth it at this  the Bush administration Hasni to said it wants to scrap any arms treaties As a result of the soviet turmoil but defense Secretary Dick Cheney suggested thursday that the agreements might under some scenarios become unworkable. A if the Center gives Way and the soviet Union As we be known it ceases to exist what happens to existing treaties and arms control agreements that have been negotiated with the soviet Union a Cheney wondered. He did no to answer his own question but private analysts said it seems Likely that pending treaties a and perhaps some already in Force a May at least have to be tinkered with once the internal soviet military relations Are settled. A this is All cause for pause a said retired Gen. Jack Merritt president of the private association of the . Army and a close watcher of .-soviet affairs. A Merritt said he is especially worried about the strategic arms reduction treaty that president Bush and Mikhail Gorbachev signed at a Moscow Summit earlier this summer. The Start Deal requires cuts of roughly 30 percent in the . And soviet arsenals of strategic or Long Range nuclear weapons a the first arms Deal in history to reduce these kinds of weapons rather than simply limit their growth. A my big concern about the Start treaty right now is a who Are we talking to a a among soviet leaders who can claim full responsibility for their far Flung Arsenal Merritt said. About four fifths of soviet strategic nuclear weapons Are based in the russian Republic but some Are in the Independence minded Ukraine Kazakhstan and byelorussian. A it does no to make any sense to me to ratify a treaty you signed with a country that does no to exist in the form it took when the agreement was signed Merritt said. Even existing treaties might come under review As a result of the soviet turmoil. Inspection provisions of the 1987 .-soviet intermediate Range nuclear forces treaty for example which required the destruction of All land based ballistic missiles with ranges Between 300 and 3,000 Miles might need some revision if some soviet republics establish Independent control Over All defense facilities on their soil. Bill Yamanaka a spokesman for the Pentagon son site inspection Agency said Agency officials have begun internal discussions about whether some inf adjustments will be needed. A we done to know How that a going to work out a he said. C the associated press James j. Kilpatric Bush should t take unbeatable Label to heart summer in Washington seems an Odd time for a hot stove league but that a the Only game in town. We sit around talking about Tom Harkin and Doug Wilder and Bill Clinton and Mario Cuomo. Whatever became of Jesse Jackson could Jimmy Carter be resurrected everything about the 1992 Campaign seems a Little Odd. The Iowa caucuses and super tuesday Are just a few months in the distance but at this writing the Only announced democratic candidate is a Paul Tsongas. Paul who he a a former senator from Massachusetts. By this time in other years the hotels and Barber shops of Davenport Ames and Des Moines would be swarming with Advance men reporters spin doctors political prognosticators and other lower forms of life. By this time half a dozen candidates in each party would be raising Money issuing position papers and explaining Why the Iowa caucuses Arentt really that important. This years inactivity is eerie. The democrats problem is that no one of stature is wildly excited about taking on George Bush. The republicans problem can be summed up in a single word overconfidence. It May prove to be the More difficult problem to Deal with. In the past few weeks the democrats have been building a platform against Bush but this is a platform made of rough planks. No one can stand on it without getting splinters. The Gist of it is that Bush has neglected Domestic leadership in his concentration on foreign affairs. He would rather help the kurd in Iraq than the Mill hands of South Carolina. He san abominable no Man a no to abortion no to Highway projects no to civil rights no to everything Here at Home. There a just enough meat in this old cow for demagogues to feed on. Bush May respond defensively that he sent up his crime Bill a Long time ago and Congress has yet to Complete action. His transportation Bill is just idling along. On Jan. 29, Bush asked Congress to ban contributions from political action committees As a part of election Reform. The reply from Congress drop dead. Sen. Bob Dole introduced Bush a civil rights Bill in March. Nothing  the first of the year the president has talked about education space technology and a National Energy strategy. He has talked about banking Reform housing Reform and investment in Enterprise zones. He has talked of a new health  he has asked Congress to fuse various Grant programs in order to give the states More discretion. Talk talk talk. But he Hasni to really pushed for much of anything. He a barely even nudged. He a been out of town. There Are targets Here but who among the democrats is capable of shooting effectively at them the big guns Are silent Sam Nunn of Georgia George Mitchell of Maine Lloyd Bentsen of Texas Dick Gephardt of Missouri a All of them have run out of powder. Sen. Jay Rockefeller just dropped out. The names that figure in our drowsy conversations Are not names to make the heart go pitty Pat. Iowa a sen. Harkin is generally regarded As a blowhard. Arkansas gov. Clinton is highly esteemed by political sophisticates but so what Virginia a gov. Wilder fumbled horribly in suggesting that judge Clarence Thomas if sent to the supreme court would let his Catholic upbringing control his vote on abortion. Who else Mario Cuomo of course but Prince Hamlet of Albany remains engrossed in self examination to run or not to run that is the question. Co mods supporters ask us to remember 1952. Adlai Stevenson or Illinois had won Only 1.2 percent of the vote in primaries that Spring but he wowed the Chicago convention and walked off with the nomination. Well Cuomo is the party a Best orator a better even than the vanishing Jesse Jackson a and the convention will be held in Madison Square Garden. Meanwhile republicans Are As comfy As a cat on a Pillow. Too comfy. One is reminded of the Story Plutarch told about Aristides the just. A vote was being taken on which statesman to exile. A country bumpkin met the great lawgiver on the Street but failed to recognize him. The redneck remarked that he was going to vote to expel Aristides. The statesman asked has he done you any wrong no said the countryman in a just tired of hearing him called a the  the president is Riding High in the Public opinion polls but these can be deceptive. Many a Maverick voter May be weary of hearing about Bush the unbeatable. Its something for the White House to keep in mind. C Universal press Syndicate the opinions expressed in the columns and cartoons on this Page represent those of the authors and Are in no Way to be considered As representing the views of the stars and stripes or the United states government