European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 11, 1991, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Wednesday september 11, 1991 the stars and stripes Page 13 commentary Tom Wicker Don t Rush to funnel Aid into soviet Union distributed by King features Syndicate pm sump Coffi .e4uaus15 Toffi Bucu cwt Kwh. Are we americans romanticizing recent events in Moscow did a popular uprising really assert itself for democracy and against the return of a powerful autocratic government that a not quite the Way the Story was told by several aides to Boris n. Yeltsin the elected president of the russian Republic. These aides travelled outside their country in the Days following the failed coup and discussed what happened with numerous westerners including some americans. In their View expressed privately Only perhaps i percent of Moscow s population turned out for what appeared on . Television to be a massive demonstration against completion of a coup against the reformist government of Mikhail s. Gorbachev. This distinct minority a and similar groups in some other cities a led by Yeltsin did put up heroic resistance even turning Back tank columns headed for the russian parliament building. The travellers from Moscow suggested that two other factors were primarily responsible for the coupes failure. One was the apparent Lack of will on the part of the coup leaders who might have crushed the minority of resisters had they been Tough and ruthless enough to do so. Instead they hesitated to take the necessary actions to silence Yeltsin and seize his stronghold in the parliament building. The other Factor was the refusal of Gorbachev while under House arrest and considerable pressure to accept the coup renounce his position and perhaps join or at least bless the plotters. As the russian aides told the Story leaders of the coup had assumed that Gorbachev a like Nikita Khrushchev in 1964 a would go quietly. That Gorbachev did not do so allowed the restoration of his government a if not his full authority a to become a goal of the resistance. If that account of the coup its failure and the reasons is accurate it Calls into question the popular picture in the United states of an outpouring of russians and other soviet citizens resisting autocratic government and demanding democracy. That would make it less Likely that when the dust settles a democratic form of government will have been established in whatever is left of the soviet Empire. In All its Long history moreover that Empire a however constituted and whether under Czar Dom or communism a has never known democracy. It is not plausible therefore that anything resembling democracy is Likely to come about overnight or even for years. Yet that goal a democratic government a is perhaps the most vital interest of the United states As it watches the present struggle for the soul of Russia. The current debate in Moscow is Over the composition of the future nation. That nation seems All but sure to be made up of most of the present republics linked in some fashion to the huge dominant russian Republic. But if whatever organization that ultimately evolves features the age old pattern of autocratic Central government it will not be greatly different in that vital respect from the old soviet Union. On the other hand if some new group of republics is organized in democratic fashion or in such a Way As to make democratic government ultimately possible it will make a great Deal of difference. That would be nothing less than a striking and historic departure from the Long line of despotism that through the centuries have ruled from Moscow. Of course some americans with typical evangelistic Fervour and envisioning massive foreign Aid As their weapon want to Wade into the debate among former soviet citizens in order to a influence the  talk of a a Marshall plan is being heard and rep. Les Aspin d-wis., chairman of the armed services committee has proposed diverting $1 billion from the defense budget for Aid to the former soviet republics. All this smacks of More romanticism. There was and could be Only one Marshall plan designed to restore War damage to Western Europe a established Industrial society. Much of the billions spent since then for Aid elsewhere has been wasted stolen or ineffective not the least because the United states usually had no Clear idea what it wanted to achieve and Little understanding of the societies it sought to Aid. As for Aspinw a billion if he can get it out of the detente budget it could do a lot More Good right Here in the country that a already spent so much to win the c old War. C the now Yolk Timus George will Harkin May be democrats own Goldwater Tom Harkin 51 and feeling free and itching for fun plans to have fun hammering George Bush so Clay  the Only Iowa Democrat Ever re elected to the Senate he plans to be the democrats Ronald Reagan storming the presidency by reviving his party a fundamentalism. Republicans dismiss him As the democrats Goldwater a Kamikaze candidate they want to see nominated. But California gov. Pat Brown in 1966 and president Carter in 1980 Felt that Way about Reagan. Harkin says Victory can come from turning out non voters who supposedly Are mostly democrats waiting to be stirred by a fire and Brimstone Liberal. Do you think you have seen this movie before you have. In 1964, Goldwate rites expounded the a conservatives in the Woodwork theory non voters were mostly conservatives anaesthetized by Republican moderates practising a me too politics As Pale democrats. Goldwater lost 45 states but won the future which suggests that maybe the message was just a Tad Early or the messenger was wrong. But recent political arithmetic should puncture Harkin s Confidence. Surveys show that if Only voters from families earning less than $50,000 had voted Bush still would have won. He would have won by about 5 million votes even if the poor Blacks and hispanics had voted at the same rate As everyone else. If absolutely everyone had voted. Bush would have beaten Dukakis even More decisively than he did. Which age group votes least the Young. Which group is the most Republican the Young. Is Harkin sure he wants More of them to vote Harkin excites those democrats who hanker to go Back to the future who Are still loitering in the 1930s waiting for lefty to rally working stiffs. Harkin is indeed one of organized labors pinups. But Only one in six workers is unionized and Many have been Reagan Zed. In 1988, about half the Union voters supported Bush w to won a majority of Blue Collar voters. Harkin sees an advantage in having his base West of the Mississippi. But since the civil w a. Only two democratic presi dents have been elected from states not on the Atlantic Seaboard and both lbs and Truman were first elevated to the presidency by deaths. Harkin notes that Mondale running against Reagan in 1984 was stronger in Many cities than Dukakis was in 1988. But cities Are no longer the crucial Battleground. The 1992 election almost certainly will be the first in which an absolute majority of votes will be cast in suburbs. Harkin says Dukakis s could have won if he had fought Back against Bush a Willie Horton and pledge of allegiance attacks. But Bush was legitimately making an Issue of the political culture of Massachusetts liberalism. Harkin asked today if he would furlough murderers says a probably  probably regarding the sort of pledge of allegiance legislation that Dukakis vetoed Harkin sounds Dukakis Ian. Harkin does understand that democrats lose when campaigns Are dominated by cultural rather than pocketbook considerations. He thinks the Middle class is Seething about the 20-year stagnation of real incomes. However Harkin unlike say Nebraska a sen. Bob Kerrey already has his message honed and can Hammer it Home precisely because he sometimes is shall we say not inhibited by scrupulous Ness either about facts or Normal political politeness. Another Harkin rival Arkansas gov. Bill Clinton will Appeal to moderates. Clinton May find that moderates Are by another name to cupids. Nomination contests involve a Small Sliver of the electorate and Are won by intense minorities. Markings candidacy May Benefit from its implausibility the More invincible Bush seems the More Likely some democrats Are to say a the hell with it a if we can twin lets at least have  Tor them fun is coming out of the closet wearing their liberalism on their sleeves. His slogan can be a in your heart you know he a  he is the a a Choice not an Echo Quot candidate. And he is an Echo probably the democrats version of Goldwater but perhaps of the Clipper.  Post of off j group