European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 23, 1992, Darmstadt, Hesse                                The stars and stripes b Page 3 big Dod cuts survivable study says expert argues reductions would not jeopardize readiness it Truney Vimr Gnu a Quot by Chuck Vinci Washington Bureau ,?ton 7 i,1c nations annual defens Evn firc Decd to$173 Bil Ion with Quot five years and possibly As Low As $135 billion within a decade from the proposed $237.5 billion without sacrificing readiness according to a study released this week i r2?r lev it is c0v,d be bought Down from the current 1.85 million to As Low As 1.1 million compared with the level of 1.6 million in the Pentagon a crumbling a base a a acc pan or  1.4 million advocated by president elect Clinton said the study by William Kaufmann. Kaufmann is professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of technology in Cambridge and a senior Lellow in International Security and foreign policy studies at the Brookings institution a Liberal Washington think tank. His 97-Page report a assessing the base Force How much is too much a is one of a number of studies analyses critiques and free advice being Given to the incoming administration. The study concludes that the base Force is a an extremely conservative response to the expected International environment of the near future. He argues that smaller forces can achieve the same Security objectives at substantially less Cost. Much has happened since the base Force plan made its formal debut in Early 1991, Kaufmann said. A but the base Force for the most part still stands firm an apparently immovable object despite the seemingly irresistible Force of history a he said. He acknowledged that defense spending has been scaled Back under president Bush by a cumulative $47 billion compared with previous budget plans. Be admitted the base Force plan has been modified since its birth to achieve big cuts in the strategic and tactical nuclear Force Structure. But Large portions of that plan particularly conventional Force Structure have survived relatively intact since the breakup of the soviet Empire he said. A late-1990s military built on the current base Force plan probably would be supported by a budget of about $240 billion an amount that might still be unnecessarily High Given the Lack of enemies and the . Edge in weapons technology Kaufmann said. He offered two alternative plans one for a More modest Force costing $173 billion a year and another for an even smaller Force that would Cost the taxpayers Only about $135 billion a year. The $173 billion per year plan Calls for cutting strategic defense initiative funding by at least half and deactivating All land based nuclear missiles and  Cost of selected Force options William Kaufmann s 97-Page study. _ Quot assessing the base Force How much is too  outlines two options to Cut defense spending without sacrificing readiness. His proposals suggest cuts that go beyond current plans to trim the defense budget. Item base Force option 1 option 2 strategic nuclear forces 39.3 205 11.2 tactical nuclear forces 04 ground forces Active 45 2 28 7 206 Reserve 4 4 4 4 4.4 land based tactical air forces Active 36.5 36 5 28.6 Reserve 4.9 4.9 4.9 naval forces 71.4 42 9 29.9 special operations forces 1.8 1.8 1.8 Airlift and sea lift 13.7 13.7 13.7 National intelligence and communications 199 19.9 199 totals 237.5 173.3 135.0 a billions of 1993 dollars in budget authority Urce author s estimates a amps Wes Booher he said the strategic triad of land based air based and sea based missiles could be reduced to its seaborne leg because even conservative lists of potential targets mostly in Russia and China could be handled solely by the planned Force of 18 Trident submarines armed with 1,752 warheads. Kaufmannn a plan also would Cut the number of Active  divisions from the current 12 envisioned in the base Force plan Down to eight. It would cover that loss in combat Power by keeping the same general amount of land based tactical air assets As the base Force plan. The persian Gulf War proved How effective tactical air Power can be when used under Ideal conditions Kaufmann said in arguing that the Pentagon should build on that experience. He suggested that the air Force invest in More genuine ground attack aircraft and that Pentagon policy planners devote a greater share of deployed air Power to attacking enemy ground forces rather than other air forces As was typically the Case in the cold War. Kaufmann s plan reduces the . Forward presence including cutting one of the two heavy divisions in Europe and four of the 10 tactical fighter squadrons listed in the base Force for Europe. He did not specify which division or which fighter squadrons. His plan also envisions pulling the 2nd inf div from South Korea. Carrier Battle groups would be based on the coasts of the United states and would make periodic cruises to foreign Waters under Kaufmann s proposal. His plan would Mothball six of 13 Navy aircraft carriers Ana reduce the total number of ships from the base Force level of 395 to 260. Kaufmann said that plan could result in a 30 percent reduction in defense spending by fiscal 1997. Although he said the Low Range spending level of $135 billion a year envisioned in his second alternative would be difficult to achieve it could be done within 10 years if certain Steps were taken a such As aggressive Pursuit of favourable cooperative agreements with allies. He said . Policy planners arc missing the Chance for major defense budget savings by insisting that american forces play the dominant role in All three of the main hypothetical wars for which the Pentagon plans a in Europe the persian Gulf and Korea. The message sent through current War planning policy a seems to be that just As in the old Days of the cold War . Allies cannot be relied upon to provide More than a modest predetermined military contribution to the common Effort a he said. According to one of his Brookings colleagues Kaufmann is a seasoned Liberal defense scholar who a wrote posture statements for various defense secretaries including Robert s. Mcnamara Donald h. Rumsfeld James r. Sch Csinger and Harold Brown. He has written a number of books including two extensive analyses of the biggest defense budgets in history a the combined $735 trillion of the 1985 and 1986 plans the Peak of the massive military buildup under Ronald Reagan. Gauging the precise Impact of his study is an inexact science. Yet there is a fair amount of gunfire raining on the Bush administrations base Force blueprint As the democrats prepare to take Over the White House. Various proposals for building a True Post cold War military might easily find Fertile ground in the extensive new crop of lawmakers entering Congress. A a there a a real feeling that a lot of things Are poised to change a said an aide to a democratic member of the House armed services committee. Quot and everybody a got a plan to do  typhoon buffeting Marianos Agana Guam apr the outer fringes of typhoon Gay began lashing Guam and the Northern Mariana islands with High wind and heavy rain Early today. It was the sixth typhoon to hit or threaten the Marianas in three months. A we feel scared. Just when they say its a super typhoon you get scared a said Visi Quitugua the administrative officer in the mayors office on Rota the Northern Mariana Island expected to get the Brunt of the storm. Gay was dubbed a Quot super typhoon thursday in the Marshall islands when its maximum sustained wind Speed reached 150 Mph. Early today however Gays sustained wind Speed dropped below super typhoon status. The . Military s by Phoon warning Center on Guam reported that the Eye of Gay was 160 Miles East of Guam at 3 a.m., moving West Northwest at 16 Mph with a sustained wind of 145 Mph and gusts to 175 Mph. By 3 a.m., wind was blowing at 4 Mph to 65 Mph across the Island of 2,300 people but there were no immediate reports of damage. Quot we re just standing by waiting. Uni Chat Tea us Japan Northern / Mariana Yvo Taiwan islands v Saipan. By Tinian my Rota a a Guam. F Philippines new Guinea typhoon Gay South Pacific Ocean Navy leaving pollution at Subic paper says report Calls area environmental disaster a Carl Fox tug a said. He said about 70 people had gone to shelters while most of the population was at Home a fall boarded  wind on Guam was gusting to 60 Mph with a on and off heavy rain said Ken Bettini at Guam Cable to. Guam with a population of 139,000, was expected to get 125 Mph sustained wind with gusts to 155 Mph when the storm was predicted to pass at noon today. On Rota the wind was expected to hit 140 Mph gusting to 165 Mph. On Saipan and Tinian to the North wind was forecast at 85 Mph gusting to 105 Mph. A fall islands Are at risk a the Typl. Urn Center warned in an advisory. On Guam Volunteer Joaquin Bluz at the civil defense Agency said All preparations had been completed and some 4,000 residents had gone to shelters. Agana Guam a capital was a ghost town with deserted streets Bettini said. Hong Kong at a Subic Bay naval facilities being resumed by . Forces to the philippine government tuesday is polluted by toxic waste a leading Hong Kong newspaper said sunday. The sunday morning Post said confidential . Government and military reports and studies by . Scientists show that the american military is leaving behind a serious contamination and hazardous waste problem. It quoted Jorge Emmanuel a .-Bascd environmental scientist at the Center for East asian studies at the University of California Berkeley As describing the base As a an environmental  in september 1991, the philippine Senate rejected a new 10-year lease for the Only remaining . Base in the former american Colony. Leaders of the anti base movement described it As an attempt to achieve Quot genuine  the . Military abandoned Clark a 50 Miles Northeast of Subic in november 1991 after eruptions of nearby mount Pinatubo severely damaged it the Post said a . Embassy official in Manila has dismissed Emmanuel a concerns. Quot the . Navy thinks hazardous waste at Subic Bay naval base has been handled in an exemplary manner a it quoted the unnamed embassy official As saying. The paper said a january 1992 report by the . General accounting office titled a military base closures . Financial obligations in the Philippines a contained the following information a sewage and waste water from the naval base and air station complexes Are discharged directly into Subic Bay. A Only 25 percent of the 5 million Gallons of sewage generated is treated. Lead and other heavy metals from the ship repair facility a sandblasting site Drain directly into the Bay or Are buried in Landfill. Neither procedure complies with . Standards requiring that Lead and heavy metals be handled and disposed of As hazardous waste. The Post said the toxic waste Issue could affect future .-philippine relations including discussions about future . Military Access to Subic As Well As the philippine governments plans to convert the naval base to a commercial port