European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - January 20, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Wednesday january 20, 1993 Money matters the stars and stripes Pago 13 no i Many analysis see in 93 inflation since 1940 in by Ian Johnson the Baltimore Sun. New York a As the Economy twitched and jerked Over the past two years investors watched with puzzlement a and pleasure a As the Stock Market somehow moved to record highs. So now that a stronger economic recovery is building investors can expect further Market records in 1993, right wrong. As with All things economic there a a Downside to Quot Good news. Behind economic growth lurks the dark Force of inflation and higher interest rates Are Likely to produce investments safer than the Stock Market. And that Means lower Stock values so the Market will crash this year right wrong again. Economic growth probably wont be so bad for the Market. With growth most companies will Post higher earnings and will maintain or increase dividends. And that Means higher Stock values. The result of this Battle Between investment strategies and economic fundamentals a Flat Market in 1993. Although some investment firms have radically different forecasts most expect the Dow Jones Industrial average to improve slightly. The Market could set new highs Early on and suffer a 10 percent correction by midyear. But few Market strategists expect a dramatic Bear or Bull Market. Quot we Haven to got the profits or the economic growth to support Strong gains. The primary Force behind the Stock Market right now is interest rates and they will not go Down any further a said David Shulman equity strategist for Salomon Brothers inc. He forecasts single digit returns from stocks in 1993. Interest rates have been driven by the Federal Reserve which last summer Cut the discount rate from 3.5 percent to 3 percent. It was the lowest level for the rate that the fed charges on Loans to member Banks in % is 16 world War ii . Involvement korean War Vietnam War major . Involvement Oil shocks Gulf crisis the consumer Price Index has responded to major world events since world War ii re heeling the increased sensitivity of the . Economy to external events. But a Long term trend seems to be visible behind the spikes caused by headline news a slowly rising Quot built in rate of inflation that is present even in it a 1340 t or to t-1945 in i i Quot i r i i i 1950 1955 i t i i i Quot Rren Quot to Quot itt to 1960 1965 1970 i to Quot i i t i to Quot i Iti t of a i Brit 1975 1980 1985 1990 consumer Price Index percent change from prior year source . Dept of labor. Nearly three decades. The feds theory cheap Money would boost the Economy whose recovery had stalled. A Side effect however was to make the interest earned on Bank deposits barely higher than the 3 percent inflation rate. This forced Small investors into stocks and sustained the Stock markets modest rally. Since october after fears about the election eased the Dow has risen 110 Points to close monday at 3,274.91. As the Economy gains momentum few Sec the fed cutting rates further. In fact the fed could turn its attention toward battling inflation in the second half of 1993, said Many economists including Paul Boltz chief economist at t. Rowe Price associates inc. Inflation should average 3.2 percent this year according to a poll of 51 economists in brokerages Industry Ana universities by Blue Chip economic indicators. That slow but the fed  that it will move aggressively to prevent any renewal of inflation. This year rates Arentt Likely to climb to Levels that would seriously damage the Stock Market. But As rates Rise and investors put More Money in certificates of Deposit Money Market funds and other interest bearing investments the flow of private savings into equities could slow said David k. Mchugh senior investment Counselor at Chicago a Northern t rust co. Quot its not uncommon for the Stock Market to Correct itself every three to four years. It would not be a major Surprise to us to see a Downside in 1993,�?� he said. One of the most optimistic Market forecasters is alien Sinai chief economist at the Boston company of economic advisors. His predictions inflation will stay under 3 percent the fed May Cut interest rates further and the Dow Jones Industrial average will hit 3,900. Quot the equity Market has moved into a new Bull Market phase Sinai  catch up on their Reading by the new York times Pittsburgh a saying they were starved for local news sports columns comic strips Tob advertisements movie listings and obituaries Pittsburgh residents lined up in the bitter cold outside news vendors monday morning to buy the first copies of the Pittsburgh pos Gazette to Roll off the presses in eight months. Quot this is exciting a Laverne Dobur 40, a clerk in a downtown finance company said As she waited to buy a copy of the City a Only major newspaper to survive a Long strike by employees Quot we Haven to had a Hometown paper for so Long its ridiculous.the Post Gazette emerging from one of the longest american newspaper strikes in decades anticipated this appetite by providing an unusually fat 80-Page newspaper Complete with a half dozen articles on the strike and a two Page summary of other major events in Pittsburgh and the world in 1992. Quot in be got to read this to Tell me what happened during the strike a said Kim Metheny 40, who works with the girl scouts in the City. Quot to tried to cover the news but they can Only get so much in a  the Banner on top of Page one said Quot Pittsburgh Post Gazette in Inch and a half High old English script and below in Ordinary Quarter Inch High print was a footnote recalling the rival newspaper that it bought before the strike ended Quot and the Best of the Pittsburgh  the Post Gazette is carrying Many of the press features comics and columns. But the newspaper which has a news staff of 144, hired Only 81 of the press 212 nonunion reporters and editors. A a it a Good to be Back a said William Block sr., chairman of Blade communications the newspapers owner. Quot but it is sad to see a paper go. Its a  the excitement at the reappearance of the Post Gazette was mixed with sadness and some anger that Only one of Pittsburgh a two daily newspapers and the less popular one at that had survived. But it fits a National trend in which towns with More than one newspaper Are becoming the exception rather than the Rule. Quot there arc Only 29 markets with daily editorial Competition and 18 of them done to have commercial Competition because the papers arc published under joint operating agreements which consolidate the business Side a said John Morton a news Media analyst in Washington. Blade communications the owner of the 206-year-old Post Gazette is a privately held company controlled by the Block family of Pittsburgh and Toledo Ohio. The 108-year-old Pittsburgh press the paper that died was owned by the . Scripps co., a publicly held company based in  one television station carried the Post Gazette s return As the Lead item on the 11 . News sunday the Post gazettes top Story monday was on the military attack on Iraq. The newspaper devoted part of the Bottom of the front Page to its survival in an article headlined Quot Post Gazette presses Roar Back to life after eight month  missing though was an obituary for its former competitor the press. The press had been the dominant newspaper and had published the Post beware of smuggled exotic Birds officials warn Washington a How much is that Birdie in the window if the Price seems too Good to be True it probably is agriculture department officials say. A if a pet Bird is for Sale at a cheap Price it is Likely the Bird was smuggled into the United states and has not met Federal health requirements a said Billy g. Johnson Deputy administrator of veterinary services in the animal and Plant health inspection service about 25,000 exotic Birds Are smuggled into the United states during the first several months of a year after the Winter Breeding season in Southern countries Johnson said. Quot we require pet Birds from other countries to be quarantined and tested for 30 Days at an inspection service Bird import Center to help keep communicable diseases out of our country Quot he said. The most common illegally imported Birds Are Hook billed tropical ones such As the Amazon Parrot. Smuggled Birds can carry highly contagious illnesses such As exotic Newcastle disease that can spread to other Birds and possibly even to humans. Quot an outbreak of exotic Newcastle disease in the commercial poultry flocks could kill millions of Domestic Birds and Cost the poultry Industry millions of dollars a Johnson said. People who have Contact with Birds stricken with the disease May develop Eye inflammations. Gazette since 1961 under a joint operating agreement that kept Only their editorial functions separate. The Block family says that the Post Gazette was barely breaking even and that hey had been preparing for the likelihood of closing the newspaper in 1999, when Scripps had the right to terminate the joint operating agreement. The tables. Turned last year when Scripps fighting declining profits tried to modernize its distribution system. As part of the company a plan it proposed to Lay off 450 of 600 members of local 211 of the teamsters and 4,000 paper boys and girls. Rather than accept the company s plan the unions members walked off their jobs in a strike that ultimately involved a half dozen unions and closed both newspapers May 17. The labor dispute became a fight to the death and last october when neither Side would Budge an Inch More to narrow their differences Scripps offered the press for Sale Quot there but for the Grace of god go we Quot Block said monday in an interview. Quot i was in Complete Shock that they would sell  help with taxes irs offers assistance Stuttgart Germany a amps an internal Revenue service tax specialist will offer advice in filling out returns at the amerika Haus next month. Advisory sessions will be held from 9 . To noon and 1 . To 4 . Feb. 5, 8, 9 and 10. Taxpayers should fill out As much of their tax forms As they can and bring the forms with them As Well As a written list of questions. The amerika Haus is at Friedric Strasse 23a, two blocks from the main train station