European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 06, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Saturday november 6, 1993 commentary the stars and stripes Taga 13 gop must pud on gains for victories in 94 had David n. Dinkins won the new York mayoral race the message would have been that president Clinton visit along with Hillary Rodham Clin ton s and Tipper Gore s visits a corf started the growing political Power of this  incumbent gov. Jim Florio won in new Jersey it would have meant that higher taxes Don t bother voters and the tax and spend liberals would begin making plans Totake the rest of our Money. An had Mary sue Terry become the first woman governor of Virginia pundits would Cal Thomas have claimed that the year of the Liberal woman had been extended instead the Clear message of tues Day s off year elections was that presi Dent Clinton is the one having the off year. Voters again demonstrated not so much their distaste for incumbents but their growing intolerance with govern ment that costs too much and delivers too Little. In the Virginia lieutenant Gover nor s race Republican Michael p. Harris made a credible showing capturing 46percent of the vote despite a religiously bigoted Campaign conducted by demo cratic it. Gov. Donald s. Beyerjr. The issues farm raised brought out the pro family vote that helped Republican George f. Allen win the governor s  should take note that this constituency remains a vital component of their party. Ballot initiatives in Many states and Cit ies contained equally Strong messages. Term limits passed in new York City de spite bitter editorial opposition from the new York times. And Gay rights Initia Tives were handily Defeated in Lewiston Maine Portsmouth . And Cincinnati. In Washington state voters passed a three times and you re out referendum annoyed that would jail three time felons for life with no parole. California voters rejected school Choice proposal but that Issue is far from dead As other states prepare to consider similar measures. Following ear Lier Republican election victories by Losangeles mayor Richard Riordan and Texas sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison Hegop even won the lieutenant governor s race in Arkansas president Clinton and his party Are in serious trouble arid risk major reversals in next year s critical con Gressional races. Where is the president s base if he has no clout in the Northeast a traditional stronghold for Liberal democrats where does he have strength the answer no where. Republicans Are being handed rare Opportunity but they had better Start recruiting the night kind of candidates for next year s congressional races. They must reclaim. The Low tax reduced spending issues that George Bush gave away. They should not abandon the social issues Agenda but recast it focus not on government invading and imposing from the outside but instead building up and preserving traditional  preservation of families will do More to control crime and reduce the need for costly and ineffective govern ment programs than life sentences More police and National guard troops in the streets. Don t look for incumbent members of Congress to be asking president Clin ton to Campaign for them next year. Eve worse for the president democrats in Congress will be less Likely to vote for the president s programs turning a deaf ear to party loyalty appeals. President Clin ton says the elections had nothing to do with his policies. Of yes they did. An the next verdict will be delivered in 1994, with the final one coming in 1996. C Loang pm times gop victories Are ominous sign for Clinton it was an irony that former president Jimmy Carter was Back at the White House for a pro Naftal rally on tuesday election Day 1993. Sixteen years ago when Carter was marking his first anniversary in office a similar set of off year elections gave Only muted warning of the political problems that would make him a one term  won the Virginia governorship in 1977, As they did tuesday but their Victory Back then was simply the Elevation of a lieutenant governor to succeed the retiring Republican governor. This year re publican George f. Allen ended 12 years of control by a democratic party that has been splintered by insight  1977, Democrat de Koch who would later give Carter fits became mayor of new York succeeding another Democrat and defeating a Liberal party Candi Date named Mario m. Cuomo. In 1977, the Republican candidate for mayor got 4 percent of the  tuesday Republican Rudy Giuliani became the first member of that party to win the mayoralty in a generation. The vote showed the same pattern of racial and class polarization that had contributed to a similar Republican comeback in los Angeles earlier this year a pattern that spells immense trouble or the demo most significantly in 1977, new Jersey gov. Brendan Byrne a Democrat who had been a huge underdog be cause of the unpopularity of the income tax he had pushed through at the Start of his term came Back to score a 300,000-vote upset re election Victory. On tues Day gov. James Flono another Democrat scarred by the same sort of revolt against his first year tax hike failed to overcome the Challenge of Republican Christie Whitman. That mini history gives a measure of How futile it is for White House spokesmen to minimize the message of the off year elections. Democrats took it on the Chin. New Jersey is the most important bellwether Clinton stayed out of Virginia by request but plunged heavily onto the Florio Campaign run by his own Campaign strategist James Carville. Eighteen hours before the polls opened a senior White House official told reporters that of All the contests the Florio race has the most National issues and the greatest relevance for Clin ton s own situation. That is Why both the president and first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton campaigned repeatedly for Florio. The implications of these elections Are Many and ominous for Clinton and other democrats. Taken together with the Mas Sacre of the governing party in last month s Canadian elections and the passage of additional term limit measures on the ballot tues Day the message is unmistakable that voters Are at least As impatient with incumbents and As ready to shake things up in government As they were in 1992. It will be surprising if that anti incumbent tide does not result in another big turnover in Congress next year and very possibly even heavier losses for the party in Power than the Normal off year swing. The South where Clinton succeeded better in 1992 than any Democrat since Carter in 1976, looms As a major problem area for the president. Since he won a year ago democrats have lost special Senate elections in Georgia and Texas the governorship in Virginia and the lieutenant governorship in Arkansas. Linton s leadership was an explicit Issue in All those races and after the Clin ton backed candidate lost the Georgia Runoff democratic contenders in other states did not even seek his Cam David s. Broder Paig help. The South was the Wobb Liest area for Clinton inthe six month budget Battle and democratic opposition to his health care plan is led by rep. Jim Cooper of ten Nessee who obviously thinks it is smart politics to oppose the administration even As he runs for vice president Algore s old Senate seat. If the South is shaky so is the other half of the traditional democratic caution the big cities. In both new York and los Angeles Middle class voters reacting to is sues of crime Anil taxes overwhelmed the Alliance of City unions and minor tics which normally produces demo cratic victories. That pro labor and minority democrats in the House Are poised to hand Clinton a defeat Onn Afta is As much a measure of his weakness As it is of their strength. Clinton has never enjoyed much leverage with con Gress and after tuesday he has less. His approval rating in polls is hovering at just about the same 43 percent level that his vote was a year ago. There is no fear Factor to inhibit members from crossing him and perhaps some incentive even for democrats to distance themselves. The same senior White House official was peddling the Lin monday that a Florio Victory and a defeat for Mary sue Terry the Democrat who shunned Clinton in Virginia would show that democrats Are better off sticking with the  they weren t. After All this it is important to remember that this is1993, not 1996. Republicans did not do Well in the first elections following Ronald Reagan s 1980 landslide los ing in Virginia among other places in 1981. But the Economy that was slumping in 1981 came roaring Back in1983 and 1984, carrying Reagan with it. Gin ton has to Hope that the increasing signs of eco nomic strength now appearing portend a Long Smoothie is looking at real trouble. C the Washington Post climb. Otherwise