European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - December 21, 1993, Darmstadt, Hesse Wary leaders must make Mideast plan work Damascus Syria a the Bottom line of a 10-Day trip to Israel Palestine to be Jordan and Syria is that peace can work though whether it will is not so certain. True a bitter history hangs Over the daily ebb and flow. It occurs to palestinians As Well As israelis that the two year american sponsored regional peace process is conceivably just one Hamas school bus attack away from collapse a and 600 israeli buses ply the West Bank every Day. The issues arrayed for negotiation Are hard. The curse of Arab israeli politics which is the tendency to ascribe fundamental and incapacitating cultural hostility to the other party lingers. Still a countering tendency to move on Stephen s. Rosenfeld into a new world is palpable. Israel aches to pick up the society renewing Burden of absorbing the soviet immigration. Palestine a we All have to get used to that word a realizes it faces decades of difficult social catch up. Jordan and even Syria Are starting to ease their dependence on Arab israeli confrontation in their respective ways. A Region once organized to carry on postcolonial politics in a cold War framework is edging its Way into a fast changing global Economy and into a political setting increasingly Distant from the old Feudal and statist order. The israeli mainstream remains committed to escaping dependence on Western patronage and on military strength alone and to seeking a Fuller membership and acceptance in the Region. Yitzhak Rabin has the toughness and insight for this transcendent Mission. But what of the Palestine liberation organization s Yasser Arafat Jordan a King Hussein and Syria s Hafez Assad the Plo chairman maddens everyone caught As he is Between the roles of revolutionary and statesman. Hussein a hesitations make his moderation discreet to the Point of virtual invisibility. On mondays and wednesdays Assad is israelis favorite can do can deliver Arab Leader but on tuesdays and thursdays he is the powerful dictator unworthy of israeli Trust. Israel Nas however a secret weapon. It is not the High technology by which it Means to ensure itself against the military risks of settlement. It is its democracy. From their roles As israelis adversaries occupied prisoners and Day labourers palestinians have sharpened their taste Tor democracy and for a better life too. The conflict Between Israel and the arabs remains one of land meaning real estate and water and peace meaning the Quality of the resulting link. Israel giving up tangible territory needs a full set of intangibles in return. Palestine and Jordan Are More or less ready for the land for peace Exchange. Syria is sceptical but determined not to be left behind. In a More immediate sense the conflict is Over tune. This is How israelis Cushion risk with time to see How Well Plo police contain Hamas anti palestinian As Well As anti israeli terrorism and with time to find ways in israeli politics As Well As on palestinian around to muffle the explosive presence of 130,000 wish settlers. Of these perhaps 10,000 Are True fundamentalists and some hundreds Are the Law. For palestinians the notion of an interim settlement embodied in the israeli palestinian Accord signed in Washington in september is vanishing fast. Palestinians look not Only for immediate Relief from israeli occupation in Gaza and Jericho but for a rapid be amiss sweep on to full israeli withdrawal and thence to it statehood. Immense friction lies in the difference Between palestinian emotional urgency and israeli caution. To ease it Arafat will have to speak More frankly to his people and broaden his administration beyond the ranks of Plo functionaries. Rabin will have to quicken the Tempo at which Israel hands Over control of palestinians daily lives and ensures economic improvements. The latter task is complicated by Arafat a evident economic priorities political slush Money first development second. Still up close desperate Palestine appears to be a better immediate interlocutor for Israel than does wary Syria. Israel May doubt Assad a readiness for a full peace and for strenuous israeli Security guarantees but Assad holds not unreasonable doubts about israelis readiness to surrender Golan a settlements and strategic assets. The syrian strongman for All his distaste for Arafat and Arafat a secret Deal at Oslo perceives an interest in seeing israeli palestinian autonomy through a if syrians own concerns arc met. Although his hands Are full on the palestinian Side Rabin knows he cannot take Syria for granted. The United states As an a Active intermediary Quot Means to have the parties negotiate with each other. But it May not be too Long before the parties either facing or feigning deadlock turn to Washington to break it. This is the moment for the United states to be thinking out these separate situations. The americans May yet have the make or break role. C Tho Washington pos there s a stumble Factor in pushing Yeltsin the mess in Russia nobody pauses to acknowledge is the result of a hot headed lust for instant democracy. Fortunately the new Constitution was ratified. Though even Here democratic purists Are unhappy because of the Power it Grants to the chief executive. That Power is enormous by the standards of the american Constitution. For a country that has never experienced democracy it is practically anarchic. But even with the Power he now exercises consider what Boris Yeltsin is being urged to do. He should Call an election very soon even before june one Russia specialist writes. Because if he does no to get a reaffirmation of his political Primacy he will gradually be overshadowed by Vladimir a Mirinovsky. And if that were to happen Why goodbye to Reform in Russia. Another critic tells us that a Mirinovsky is a fascist and his arrival on the scene with 25 percent of the vote twice As much As the Yeltsin vote brings visions of the Weimar Republic which ushered in hit Ler 60 years ago. A Mirinovsky will no doubt bump into the a a fascist demonology that was the main derogation of the soviet Union be ginning right after the Stalin Hitler pact. But the term was used to condemn any body who displeased in any Way whoever was ruling the William f. Buckley Kremlin. Masaryk of Czechoslovakia was of course a fascist for which offence he was conveniently defines rated. Dub Cek a generation later was a fascist because he brought on a Prague he was sent off somewhere Remote and lobotomized Well before Spring had any Chance to Flower into summer. A Mirinovsky looks like the real fascist Mccoy if that is the right word for someone who favors a great orgy of Revan Chism not excluding the re annexation of Alaska a and of course Poland and Finland and needless to say the so called republics that burst Loose from the old . Early in the decade. Another item of interest Zhirik Nevsky backed the new Constitution of Yeltsin which is heavy with executive Power. Because it is the perfect Constitution of no. It is simply a step in the right direction. What he has in mind is something that would give the executive in effect total authority always on the Assumption that he would be the executive. Now a Liberal democratic party a wonderful name by the Way explosively appropriate for anybody who Pines for the old ways under communism commanded 4 percent in the old parliament and now with Over 25 percent threatens to be the largest bloc in parliament. If he makes common cause with the communist party and perhaps others he might succeed in Grid Locking the parliament requiring Yeltsin to make concessions to minority parties significant enough gravely to affect policy. The emergence of a Mirinovsky becomes a vital political Datum. Well now Are we satisfied at having urged a democratic election in Russia those who with grave and orthodox countenance defend the plebiscite on the grounds that we now know what Are the causes of russian discontent Are telling us that we could not have known what these discontents were without an election. To which the answer is Why not Arsenio Hall whoever he is could have told us that people in Russia Yho arc enduring the Tabor pains of a transition from socialism to a Market society Are unhappy about it. The most ignorant native of Zaire where a Dollar will now fetch you 100 million units of the local currency will Tell you that inflation hurts deeply. And an american professor of astronomy let alone political science would have told you that the vast number of russian soldiers and sailors who were employed and proud of their Continental pre Eminence have resented demobilization on so grand a scale. But no. We had to have a democratic election and now we have Given official status to these discontents a for the satisfaction of going through procedures indispensable to mature self governing societies reckless for societies within which the first order of business Isnit democratic niceties but Reform and stability. T fun very Al pres Syndicate a
