European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - May 25, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Wednesday May 25, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes r Page 15 . Fore i a i cannot forecast to you the action of Russia a said British prime minister Winston Churchill in a radio broadcast oct. 1, 1939, a it is a Riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an  by comparison with America today the Russia of 1939 would seem like an open Book. Divining the direction the United states might take in foreign affairs is an almost impossible task. During the cold War there was a flourishing Industry among academics who would Analyse in minute detail who was standing next to whom on the Kremlin Wall in Moscow or in Tiana men Square in Beijing and from those rankings forecast the direction of the communist world. It was All nonsense of course but at least it gave the illusion that someone knew what was going on. Even those signs and portents Are lacking in Washington today. Someone once aptly said that trying to figure out what was going on in China before president Nixon a 1971 visit was like peering into a darkened room where two Black cats were fighting and from the caterwauling and the occasional Flash of Teeth determining which one was winning. Those trying to figure out who is in charge of . Foreign policy today Harry g. Summers would appreciate the analogy. What is . Policy on Bosnia or Haiti will we use military Force will we permit airstrikes will we commit ground troops if push comes to shove will the United states stand and fight or will it run away can you bet your life on any of the above the Hemming and hawing of Washington in these matters is no foundation upon which to maintain a firm Alliance. During the persian Gulf War . Air Force Gen. Charles a. Horner waged a remarkable air Campaign involving the unified Effort of 2,700 aircraft representing 14 separate National or service components. That Alliance was based on absolute Trust among the coalition partners. But would reasonable people Trust their lives or the lives of their families on the consistency of . Foreign policy today president Clinton is taking the heat for this vacillation. But in truth such wobbling has been the hallmark of american foreign policy through much of this Century. In 1916, president Wilson ran for re election on the platform that he had kept America out of War. In 1940, president Franklin d. Roosevelt said the same things and yet again in 1964, president Johnson said he Wasny to going to Send american boys to do what asian boys ought to do. Yet in each Case a year later America was at War to combat an aggression that its presidents misleading words May Well have helped precipitate. That seems to have been the Case again in the events leading up to the persian Gulf War. President Bush a conciliatory remarks to iraqis Saddam Hussein conveyed. By . Ambassador april Glaspie were mistakenly taken As a sign that the United states would not become involved in iraqis quarrel with Kuwait. Sometimes such misleading messages Are inadvertent. Twenty years ago in a dispatch to the state department Daniel Patrick Moynihan then . Ambassador to India complained about a directive he had received from Washington a is this a a yet another example of gangster revisionist Militarist aggression from the Pentagon Riding roughshod Over the mandate of the people the spirit of the Constitution the Laws of nature and natures god a he asked a for is it old fudge factory forgetting to Tell its friends in the Field much less to consult a a the answer is almost always the latter. But too often the reason Washington does no to talk with or consult its friends is because it has nothing to talk or consult about. There is no thought out Long term policy. In Wilson a Roosevelt a and Johnson a statements the Short term objective was to get re elected. In Bush Scase it was to continue to pressure 1 fan. There was no thought to the Long term consequences of their remarks or to the possibility they might be encouraging aggression. Duplicity and unpredictability May sometimes be an asset in the conduct of foreign relations. The great French Diplomat Talleyrand once defined diplomacy As Menf a of let Mcnair a a lie and  but even he would agree that such tics and denials ought to be planned out and deliberate and directed toward an end not the aimless rambling that comes from a Lack of policy. A a a a a a a a v a one of the primary goals of  foreign policy ought to be world stability. As a a a have nation As a status quo nation and As the worlds sole surviving superpower America has no interest in turmoil and unrest. Yet that is precisely what our Lack of a coherent foreign policy is fomenting. For our own Sake and for the Sake of the peace of the world the sooner we explain the Riddle crack the mystery and solve the Enigma the better. A a. C los Angelos times a. Apartheid s Day of doom came in 1976 unrest if you think you re Happy about the Heady turn of events in South Africa you ought to hear or. Nth to Mot Lana. When i talked to him the other Day he  suppress his elation and saw no Good reason for trying. This 60-Ycar-old so Wetan had just voted for the first time in his life a and for the winning party the african National Congress of which he has been a member since he was 18. It was an extraordinary almost unbelievable occasion he told me during a Quick trip to the United states he had come to accept an horror any doctorate from. A a a a a a Denison University in Granville Ohio before scurrying Back for the swearing in ceremony of the new government. And he acknowledged there were times when he thought it might not happen. Even Nelson Maricela must have had his moments of despair along the Way said Mot Lana. As for his own doubts i would say they really ceased in 1976, a seminal year in our fight against apartheid a when the children took to the streets and virtually destroyed South Africa. It happened on the 16th of june 1976, at about 1-0 o clock and i was there. William Raspberry a when the first violence occurred .diagonally1 opposite the Mandela residence at a school  Rand West High school i was there. I was there when the police turned dogs against unarmed schoolgirls and Young schoolboys and i saw those schoolboys take hold of alsatian dogs a vicious alsatian a and throttle them with their Bare hands and Burn them. I saw it All. A and then the kids throughout South Africa a As if on a signal a started burning government buildings bottle stores schools throughout the country. And our biggest support was in Cape town where the so called coloured children responded to the children of Soweto in a critical fashion. They went into town and started burning shops and government buildings a the whole country was in turmoil for six months and the government did no to know what to do. There were trials after trials and lots of our children left South Africa to go into exile to form the my guerrilla units that came Back in and blew up Power stations. A it was quite obvious that apartheid was  obvious perhaps but not instant. It would be a month shy of 18 years after that doubt erasing explosion before Mot Lana would finally cast his first vote. His elation Over a transition that still strikes my As a certified Miracle is however tempered by a somber thought the youngsters who made the change possible will be hard put to Benefit from it. Why because they left school to make the revolution and now have reached adulthood without education or skills. Many Are illiterate. A this is the sad Side a Mot Lana told me. A i told you ill always remember june 16, 1976. Well the very next Day a group of us. Were going around talking to the students in an attempt to persuade them to stay in school. Our message was done to Burn your schools. And they  listen. A what is the new government going to do the armed forces might have absorbed some of these people but South africans new government is committed to downsizing the. Military bloated and expensive As a result of the country a efforts both to contain its Black population and to destabilize its neighbors a Mozambique Angola Zimbabwe. The immediate demands will be for Money to improve housing and health care and to educate the children for the coming Century. Who will Supply the Money a even the ideas a for looking after the generation that made the Miracle possible the question a Shadow across Mot Lana a irrepressible Joy May be one of the most important the Mandela government will face. A c Waii Minyion Post