European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 02, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday september 2, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes Page 17 Clinton wrong course Sydney h. Schanberg let s imagine for argument s Sake that presi Dent Clinton s new get Tough policy on Cuba works out As intended. By significantly stiffening the 31-year-old economic embargo Clinton is essentially seeking to 1 make Dis contented cubans stay in Cuba instead of fleeing to the United states and 2 make living conditions worse for them in the already straitened Island nation so that 3 they will overthrow the autocratic regime of Fidel Cas Tro. -. ,. To this end Clinton announced that no longer would cuban boat people who risk the treacherous Straits of Florida be granted automatic Asylum. They would instead be picked up at sea and detained. In Camps for later return to Cuba. He also ordered an end to most charter flights to Cuba from . Soil and halted the sending of . Dollars an goods by cuban americans to their relatives there. Castro s hold on Power was already slowly unravelling re cent not and other unrest Are the latest evidence of unhappy. Ness Over his misrule and the nation s economic distress so Why the need for Washington to reverse a Long trend toward the kind of wider contacts that have stirred cuban yearnings for democracy the pattern is in place the United states now trades heavily with China and is moving toward recognition of Vietnam and North Korea. If the cold War is Over and it is then Why Are we hot broadening links with Cuba instead of shutting them Down the policy of accepting cuban refugees into the United states has been in place for nearly three dec Ades. Now a flotilla of about 70 coast guard and Navy vessels is deployed off Cuba to pick up All the Baleros rafters and take them instead to a detention Center inside the . Navy base at Grant Iamo Bay on Cuba s Eastern tip. Clinton it is said was worried about the immigration Impact on Florida where the largest group of earlier cuban arrivals has settled and How this might erode some of his Domestic political support. His no admit Tance announcement however has not slowed the ref Ugee flow. Nearly 15,000 cubans have taken to the sea and have been interned. An unknown number have drowned As their homemade raft contraptions capsized before they could be spotted and picked up. The exodus30from Cuba that triggered Clinton s crackdown was Only the latest in a series of similar ref Ugee spurts Over the years. The last big one came in 1980. Known As the Mariel boat lift it brought 125,000 cubans to this country Over five months. Before that there was a sudden surge in 1965 when Castro in response to an increase in Covert flight by boat an icy Nourice that any cuban who wanted to leave for the Yankee Paradise could do so with official approval and no longer need go by  on that occasion the Havana government seemed surprised when the Johnson administration quickly agreed to take in All the refugees. In the weeks mat followed the Castro announcement on sept. 28,1965, several thousand cubans fled the country in All manner of boats taking off from the fishing Village of Amarica on the Northern coast where the Castro re Gime had to set up a formal debarkation Center because of the unusually heavy traffic. Then in november of that year Washington reached an agreement with Havana for an Airlift that evacuated Many thousands More.  " / ". ,.- As a Young reporter i covered the 1965 exodus firs from key West fla., where the refugees were coming in and then from a 28-foot boat that three Young cuban exiles in Miami had bought with their savings in order to make the crossing to Cama Rioca and bring Back their families. U there were hundreds like these three who Poole their Money tomake the trip from this Side but our boat the Hobo never reached its destination. A storm struck when we were just a few Miles from the Cuba Shore. Our Compass broke and we began taking on water a couple of Days later we limped into key Largo. My three cuban friends unbowed said they would make a fresh Start in a few Days. We make re pairs on the boat and we try again said Lionel  we do not give  in each of these refugee Waves of discontented cubans Castro has tried to turn the disaffection to his advantage by letting the unhappy leave and blaming it on Washington s cold War Campaign of isolating an squeezing soviet Allied Cuba. Also once the exod uses began on their own he has officially encouraged the outflow apparently in an Effort to pique Washington and twist its policy in knots. This time he clearly succeeded. \ ". He got Clinton not Only to close this country s Long open doors but also to tighten the screws on the cuban Economy As Well. In response cuban diplomats said nothing would change unless Washington agreed to talks on the outstanding  the two countries. Clinton aides initially rejected the proposals a diversion intended to turn eyes away from Castro s internal problems. But what s wrong with talks As Long As they offer no rewards for repression and make Clear that . Sanctions can be eased Only if Havana takes Concrete Steps to install democratic reforms and protect civil rights that could do More to Foster a democracy movement than a policy that seals off a country and makes its peo ple More miserable than before. " c new Day Republican of. ,. /  v republicans in the House of representatives Are setting a record. Every Day they extend the longest consecutive Span in minority status. Labor Day will be their 14,488th Day Labouring in  the Lincoln and Eisenhower administrations neither party had Benin the House minority for More than 16 consecutive years. Republicans passed that Point 24 years ago during Nixon first term. Only three of the 256 House democrats have Ever served in the minority and none of the 178 republicans has Ever served in the majority. Thirteen of the republicans had not been born when their party lost its last House majority in 1954. ,. These computations Are from political scientists William Connellyjr. Of Washington and Lee University and John pit Ney or. Of Claremont Mckenna College in their paper the future of the House republicans. They note that democrats hold 61 of the 65 majority minority districts where racial or ethnic minority groups Are the majority. Most Are Safe democratic seats. Republicans would have to win 58 percent of All other districts to capture the , the racial gerrymandering that creates Many of the majority minority districts often makes it easier for republicans to win districts contiguous to those majority minority districts. This is because minorities who Are Relia ble democratic voters Are swept together from what were other districts. It will beco Dign punishment if democrats suffer serious reverses because of this reverse discrimination that they  democrats May seem More United than they were after Ronald Rea Gan was elected but this is partly because in 1981 there were nine More conservative White southerners among the demo cratic majority than there Arenow. Further More democrats achieve an appearance of Unity by limiting the amendments that can be offered to Bills. In 1977-78, most rules regulating House treatment of Bill were open rules under which any member could offer any germane Amend ment to a Bill. Only 15 percent were restrictive  in this Congress More than 70 percent of the House rules have been  even so Chu Kraasch of the Gannett news service re ports that on five crucial votes on the things president Clinton brags about the budget Naftal the Brady Bill and George f. Will two votes on the crime Bill Only 63democrats supported the president consistently. Three quarters of the democrats did not. For the first time in a Long time republicans Are winning some National polls asking would you prefer to vote for a Republican or Democrat for con Gress because republicans usually have higher turnouts than democrats particularly in off year elections with a Democrat in the White House republicans would be positioned to gain if they were even four or five Points behind but Connelly and Pitney note that generalized anti incumbency could in Jure republicans if every incumbent who won in 1992 with less than 55 per cent were Defeated this november 50 democrats would fall but so would 46 republicans. And if everyone who won last time with less than 51 percent were beaten republicans would have a net loss of four seats. However republicans Are trying to leaven anti incumbency with  republicans whose two most aggressive leaders Are former College professors Newt Gingrich and Dick arme believe that the More ideas matter the More seats they will win. Their strategy is to nationalize congressional elections around Strong themes and specific proposals that willbe unveiled at a sept. 27"contract with America event on the Capitol , All House Republican Candi dates will pledge themselves to certain things. The details Are still being decided and it is unclear whether the Price of unanimity will be Mushines. The Evi Dence so far is depressing. For example the current plan is to. Not. Challenge existing tax rates. If that is the message on sept. 27, then the party that emphatically opposed Clinton s tax in creases will be saying that those new rates Are now necessary. That will not convince the country that the party is serious about the serious business of limit ing  wait there is worse. Last week a House Republican conference news release titled count Down to september 27" trumpeted that republicans stand for change and re form even revolutionary measures. But this is the full text of what the new release had to say about what the con tract will say about the really significant Reform that fore than three quarters of the american people favor term Lim its allows consideration of year and 12-year term  allows consideration of that is a Kazoo not a trumpet. If republicans can not do Bette than such timidity on sept.27, they deserve to go on setting dismal records for electoral futility. C washing lon Post