European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - September 30, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse Page 10 the stars and stripes world Friday september 30,1994experts differ on plague prognosis new Delhi India apr a top health of tidal predicted thursday that India will soon contain its plague epidemic even though the disease already has spread farther than the last major outbreak nearly three decades ago. But a scientist at the world health organization said it is too Early to make such a prediction. During the 1940s and Early 1950s, the plague routinely killed thousands of indians each year As the impoverished nation fought for and eventually won Independence from Britain. That annual death toll fell sharply Between 1957 and 1966, when the last plague death occurred said or. . Datta director of the National Institute of communicable diseases. On sept. 20, for the first time in 28 years indians began dying of the plague in the Western City of Surat. Since then the official death toll in the port City on the arabian sea has risen to 54, with unofficial estimates As High As 300.hundreds of thousands of people have fled Surat and already have spread the disease far Thor than the last major plague epidemic which killed 100 people in a Southern state in 1962. Datta predicted thursday however that India will soon contain the epidemic and Stop it from killing people. A unlike the 1960s, we now have enough antibiotics to cure the plague enough insecticides and Poison to kill the fleas and rats that carry it and ways of telling the Public about the disease on to radio and in newspapers a he said in an interview. A the number of deaths is already falling in the City of Surat and few Are occurring anywhere else. The situation will be brought under control in a few Days a Datta said. But another scientist was less optimistic. A the million Dollar question now is will All these people from Surat spread the disease throughout India a said or. . Shah the who representative in India. A a this outbreak presents India with a bigger Challenge than the last major one in 1962 because it is spreading indians biggest problem Shah said is to make sure the plague does no to spread through its densely populated cities and the Many villages that have Little Access to doctors and Medicine. In 10 Days plague cases already have spread hundreds of Miles from Surat to new Delhi and the states of West Bengal Adhya Pravesh and Maharashtra. Punjab state reported its first Case thursday. Many other states Are examining hundreds of suspected plague cases in overcrowded Hospi. /. In new Delhi where the first plague Case was identified at the infectious diseases Hospital on saturday night the number of patients had risen to 47 by thursday or. . Panda said. To fight the epidemic India is handing out antibiotics spreading insecticides and Poison to kill the rats and their plague carrying fleas cleaning up its Many garbage strewn streets and searching for plague victims especially from Surat. Every hour state run television and radio Tell people How to fight the plague. Meanwhile other nations arc taking Steps against the disease a on thursday the sri lankan government halted the repatriation of sri lankan refugees from Southern India. More than 3,000 refugees were due next week said Sunil Wickramaratn a spokesman for the state refugee Agency. The refugees Are some of 70,000 sri lankan still in India after fleeing in 1990, when peace talks broke Down Between the govern mint and ethnic tamil rebels fighting for a separate Homeland. T a sri Lanka a National airline air Lanka also suspended All flights to Bombay and new Delhi until further notice. On wednesday six persian Gulf nations and Yemen suspended flights indefinitely to and from India to keep out the control villages ravaged by monsoons and a september 1993 earthquake became Breeding grounds for rats. Fleas that bite infected rodents it transmit bubonic plague to authorities Are killing rats and spraying Homes a to several legions with Dot Andric insecticides. A in the human body the plague can be conf died by treating it with tetracycline. Newer antibiotics Are a currently being tested. 500 pm Pakistan 500 Rry Tes Surat Bombay arabian sea Maharashtra state Bangladesh Bay of Benga transmission by humans a people in the plague Ridden cities Are fleeing their Homes in terror often travelling for several Days. During a one to four Day incubation period they May pass on the bacteria and they May become sick in an area without proper medical the plague m police and army officiate Are staffing guard at hospitals making sure plague. Patients done to. 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