European Stars and Stripes (Newspaper) - November 11, 1994, Darmstadt, Hesse                                Friday november 11, 1994 commentary the stars and stripes Page 17 ideological Scales tip heavily toward right it was an immoderate Campaign coarse in is tone and a edifying in its substance and the nation s politics Are Likely to stay that Way for the next two years and beyond. Dissatisfaction with president Linton with liberalism with the democratic party and with Washington in general combined to Cre ate a surge by re d i Pii Blicaus Espen. W. Scially conservative Apple republicans. If not quite a tidal wave tues Day s results swept Many an incumbent from office and set up two years of in tense political confrontation Between the White House and Congress. The returns constituted a Sharp Rebuff to Clinton. Many of those for whom he stumped so frantically in the final hours were Defeated some of them decisively. Exit polls showed that about a third of All voters said they voted As the did to express their disapproval of what the president had done. They did t like film said a Defeated democratic senatorial candidate and so they did t like  even before the votes were counted it was Clear that the next Congress would be More extreme than the last. Sens. John Dan Efthi a to. Dave Durenberger r-minn., and David Boren d-okla., All moderates Are All retiring at the end of the year. To compound the change Tennes see voters denied another term to sen. Jim Sasser a Middle of the Road demo crat who had hoped to become majority Leader and those in Oklahoma rebuffed rep. Dave Mccurdy the chairman of the centrist democratic leadership Confer ence in his Senate bid. Their replacements whether Republican or democratic will be much less pre pared to tread the Middle of the Road. They made that Clear in their Campaign speeches. So did other new members coming to Washington. In an Era of weak party discipline and constantly shifting coalitions on Capitol Hill the moderates have been the Clay out of which Many a legislative edifice has been built in recent years. Now a White House official fretted tuesday night there May not be any Center there for us to work  that is bad hews for Clinton. He passed the crime Bill with the help of moderates in both parties and Danforth played a major role iat one Point. Clin ton s Hopes for the passage of a health care Bill next year rested heavily with centrist accommodation minded politicians like rep. Jim Cooper a Democrat whose try for the second Tennessee seat fell Short. Rep. Jim Inhofe the Republican who will succeed Boren defined himself in an interview a few weeks ago As a Man who s going to Washington to stand for something not to horse Trade and com Promise. A v., the moderate viewpoint will not of course be without its champions. Sen. John Chaffee r-r.i., who tried in vain to assemble a moderate coalition behind a modest health care Bill this year will be Back to try again. A former democratic leadership conference Leader sen. Charles Robb d-., Defeated the most extreme of the Republican candidates Oliver North. The religious right will persist too especially in the 1996 presidential Campaign attempting to ensure that the republicans nominate for president someone sympathetic with their opposition to abortion Toi example a counterweight May arise in the statehouse. Republican governors elected and re elected across the Midwest Aswell As others such As William Weld in Massachusetts Are generally less ideological than their Fellows in the Senate an House of representatives. The Republican convention two years ago in Houston showed How deep the potential schisms within the party Are. Conservatives emphasized what they termed family issues while others such As sen. Richard Lugar the Indiana Republican who won easy re election tuesday night thought it was big mistake to Putansu Clashow. If this year s results Are any guide 1996 could be worse. While the country has unmistakably moved to the right exclusionary tactics could result in something like the 1964 gop convention in san Francisco which so badly split the party that Lyndon Johnson was to win by a landslide. A difficult tactical situation will confront the Republican leadership on Capitol Hill. Do they cooperate with Clinton even a Little and take the Edge off their Effort to unseat Clinton two years from now or do they play hardball and risk charges of obstructionism of the kind that Harry Truman levelled at the80th Congress to such devastating effect inl948? a. But the democrats problems Are clearly much worse. Clinton had won election As the apostle of change. But exit Olls showed that voters think he Hasl led to deliver that he has become the Symbol of the very status quo that his election was to have shattered 4 now he is confronted with a huge Challenge with less support to Capitol Hill How does he deliver enough change to change people s minds David Wil Helm the chairman of the democratic National committee said tuesday night that it was unthinkable that anyone would Challenge Clinton for the demo cratic nomination two years from  when Truman was trounced in 1946, he Drew challenges from both left and right two years later. C a  president Clinton defined the election As referendum on Ronald reagans 1980s, thereby taking up the Gauntlet republicans had thrown Down with their Reagan Ite  the referendum produced a lot of Reagan  the election results had been an indiscriminate massacre of incumbents the election would have been merely a National temper Tantrum. Instead it was a re sounding ideological  s Long March through institutions began 30 years ago with Barry Goldwater s capture of the Republican party and now has produced turbulence that is especially remarkable because no remark Able Issue or event catalysed it. Slavery in the 1850s, the panic of 1893 and the depression in the 1930s churned the party system. Today the nation is at peace and prosperous yet it is Seething. Of however the supposedly intricate and unfathomable feelings of the electorate Are really neither. With Breezy frankness voters have said approximately this something is amiss when a government that does no adequately deliver the mail delivers condoms to Chil Dren. That is government often is incompetent at basics and offensive regarding matters that Are none of its business. For democrats the Point of nominating a new Democrat particularly a southerner for president was to reverse the Republican trend that already was alarming democrats by 1968, when Hubert Humphrey carried Only one Southern state Texas. But Clinton has strengthened the trend and at the expense of such legitimate new democrats As reps. Jim Cooper of Tennessee and Dave Mccurdy of Oklahoma whose Senate candidacies were swamped by tuesday s anti Linton tide. The country is much More conservative than it was when it elected Reagan and significantly More conservative than in 1992. But liberals will be a larger por Tion of congressional democrats in the 104th Congress than in the 103rd. However if Clinton remains to the left he will be trying to govern against the Grain of the country and will be peripheral to the nation s political conversation. If he moves to the right he will alienate his base such As it is liberals african americans and Public employees. That base cannot re elect him but can help select him. Regarding the dangerousness of disaffected liberals Clinton should ask Jimmy Carter about the Spring of 1980.Clinton cannot win bidding wars with republicans in tailoring tax cuts or welfare re forms for a conservative coun try. Yet if Clinton adopts a veto strategy regarding Republican initiatives who then is the of Struc Tor of change and the author of gridlock Clinton s decision to conduct the 1994 Campaign As an argument with Reagan underscore the conservatives Contention that 1994 is year six of the Bush Clinton Era and that Clinton a passionate opponent of systemic change by term limits and a balanced budget constitutional amendment clings to the status quo. The october fear mongering about the Campaign illustrated the democrats intellectual sterile  speaking of recycling ideas some democrats dream of Clinton emulating in 1996 Truman s 1948 run against the do nothing 80th  but there Are three problems. First Truman was Truma a Casque Linton would be pretending. Second Truman rallied liberals and labor when they were formidable and when government enjoyed unnatural prestige As George f. Will organizer of the Victory in War third the 104th con Gress will not do nothing. The implications of 1994 for republicans in 1996 begin Here come january republicans will hold governorships in eight of the nine largest states. These eight have 218 of the 270 total electoral votes needed to win the White House. The previous Senate contained approximately 25 sol idly conservative republicans. The next Senate will have approximately 40. This is partly a tribute to the candidate recruitment fund raising and tactical advice of Phil Gramm chairman of the Senate Campaign com Mittee. However it will help his principal rival for the 1996 nomination Bob Dole. Dole is substantially less conservative than Gramm and is now to the left of the new Center of the Republican s Senate contingent. Two Days before the election Dole essentially stopped feigning support for term Lim its. This is a problem for Dole Given the conservatism of the Republican nominating electorate. However As Leader of a conservative majority Dole will be compelled to seem More conservative than his inclinations. Another Benefit that accrued to Dole on tues Day is this an ally of a Dole ally George Pataki pro Tege of sen. Alfonse d Amato will be governor of new York when that state holds perhaps the most important primary in the new compressed nominating schedule. However prophecy is optional Folly so instead let s savor the moment. It is immeasurably satisfying that three Days after Ronald Reagan announced his final Battle his countrymen gave him his third National Victory. C we Hington Pott